coolhand's Account Talk

[poolman]

Interesting turn of events coolhand. I have been weighing my own negativity vs. the real prospects for the market. I always have to ask myself if I am so bearish, that it is time to buy, or is the market really in the trouble that we suspect.

I feel the same way. We have come a long way down. Although in 1997 I felt that the market's where on a tear and also not wearth the price.

It's amazing what has happen'd in the last 2 years.

Let's hear it for a rally this afternoon. :nuts:

 

[coolhand]

Interesting turn of events coolhand. I have been weighing my own negativity vs. the real prospects for the market. I always have to ask myself if I am so bearish, that it is time to buy, or is the market really in the trouble that we suspect.

I have some work related reasons for my feelings as well, but I won't post them on this particular board.

I know what you mean about weighing personal sentiment. I've been doing that for awhile now.

 

[coolhand]

I feel the same way. We have come a long way down. Although in 1997 I felt that the market's where on a tear and also not wearth the price.

It's amazing what has happen'd in the last 2 years.

Let's hear it for a rally this afternoon. :nuts:

I'm more inclined to think we're about to roll over.

 

[WorkFE]

go rally

 

[coolhand]

go rally

Hey, I'm still in the market till the close . I hope we get that rally. If this is what I have to do to make it go up then that's what I'll start doing. :laugh:

We can continue the downward spiral next week.

 

[WorkFE]

I new I shouldn't have printed "GO RALLY" in red
Sorry

 

[poolman]

I new I shouldn't have printed "GO RALLY" in red
Sorry

What the Hell. I liked your enthusiasm.... I was there with you ..

 

[Bullitt]

The only thing keeping me in this is that trading by the headlines has been the most successful method the past few months. There's absolutely no way that method is going to be successful forever. I also don't believe that we're magically going to hit the 400 level any time soon, which any armchair technical analyst can see as the blast off point of the credit bubble in 1995.

I just love it when I hear, "banks up 25%". That's like saying you're glad it's 50 Degrees in the dead of winter. In both cases, I hope people are thinking 'something is not right here'.

 

[WorkFE]

You're right Bullit, something does not smell right and I have already taken out the garbage.
It is hard not to be pesimistic when it's been one scandle after another.
I had a dream that Barclays and the Gov't jacked us out of our TSP.
Don't worry, I stopped the scotch before bed after that.

 

[Boghie]

Me...

I am going to try to watch the sale of Treasuries...

If they have a hard go of it, I'm bailing from the G. Maybe even the F. Don't want this government 'borrowing' money from my account, eh...

Anyone out there want to buy a Trillion or so worth of very secure Treasury Bonds.

Anyone...

 

[coolhand]

FWIW, I am down -10.31% for the year so far. A little over two weeks ago I was up over 5.5%. Boy, what a quick turn around.

Still, I'm ahead of the S&P by 7.84%. My goal has always been to beat the S&P, so I'm winning that battle.

My annual TSP statement showed my performance for last year was -18.29%, well ahead of the S&P.

 

[Boghie]

AA For TSP Investors...

Hi, I'm Boghie
And I lost money in the markets last year

Down 21.99% for CY2008. But, that ain't too bad. I missed an IFT in the Automated Tracker last year. Too bad reality was worse than my Automated Tracker accidental alternative reality fiction. A brilliant market timing move in late October - the market just can't fall further and faster than September/October If I was in the running for any of the wonderful parting gifts based on the Automated Tracker I would have contacted TSPTalk...

Anyway, the tough move this year will be to track with a gain - with regards to the stupid IFT limitations. I'm guessing I will need a two/three week minimum bounce to make any money in TSP this year. For that to happen I think President Obama and his staff will have to stay quiet for a couple of months. Odds on that. Zero. They are great speakers who like to hear themselves yak.

 

[coolhand]

Hello Boghie. Yes it's been a tough market. I hope we can turn the corner soon, but long term I'm not seeing it. Maybe Intermediate Term. Good luck to us to finish positive this year.

 

[justbizness45]

I will second that motion. I was a -20%er last year also.:embarrest:

 

[Gumby]

FWIW, I am down -10.31% for the year so far. A little over two weeks ago I was up over 5.5%. Boy, what a quick turn around.

Still, I'm ahead of the S&P by 7.84%. My goal has always been to beat the S&P, so I'm winning that battle.

My annual TSP statement showed my performance for last year was -18.29%, well ahead of the S&P.

Coolhand,

You are doing great. My goal was also to try and beat the S&P by 10%....but when you achieve that goal and the S&P is -32% for the year...it just doesn't leave the balance is to good of shape. Just remember, it could be worse. The Dam$ IFT limits have really made this bear market a struggle. The FRTIB could not have picked a worse time for such drastic measures.

 

[coolhand]

Coolhand,

You are doing great. My goal was also to try and beat the S&P by 10%....but when you achieve that goal and the S&P is -32% for the year...it just doesn't leave the balance is to good of shape. Just remember, it could be worse. The Dam$ IFT limits have really made this bear market a struggle. The FRTIB could not have picked a worse time for such drastic measures.

The IFT limits were definitely a factor. Most of my losses last year were in October. Because the selling started at the beginning of the month I thought I had a good chance for a bounce, but we dropped so far so fast and for so long I never had a chance to break even. The past two weeks were similar, although not quite as deep. Then again, this week could see us plunge further into the abyss.

The fearless forecasters on Traders Talk are beared up again for Monday. That is not a group you want to fade. Mark Young is also bearish for the first time in a while, although he's still looking for a sustained turn with volume. He's been looking for that for too long now. Problem is, it could be further out than many think.

I hate to sound bearish, but I'm not feeling a rally right now.

 

[airlift]

These are extraordinary financial times not identical to 1929 or the 1930s. Much is unchartered territory, and many of the traditional technical indicators don't seem to be responding as expected. Perhaps this is due to the impact of intervention by Central Banks trying to avert a greater global melt-down. Extraordinary caution should be exercised by all of us until we see more clarity. G fund seems to be a fine choice!

 

[Show-me]

Same here, my goal was to beat the market but the flush was mind blowing and I got paralysis.

The IFT limits were definitely a factor. Most of my losses last year were in October. Because the selling started at the beginning of the month I thought I had a good chance for a bounce, but we dropped so far so fast and for so long I never had a chance to break even. The past two weeks were similar, although not quite as deep. Then again, this week could see us plunge further into the abyss.

 

[KevinD]

Is there a point at which the contrarian viewpoint might be wrong? If a high enough percentage of people
are bearish that they are more right than wrong? Where the majority viewpoint becomes the obvious choice?

 

[coolhand]

Is there a point at which the contrarian viewpoint might be wrong? If a high enough percentage of people
are bearish that they are more right than wrong? Where the majority viewpoint becomes the obvious choice?

The contrarian viewpoint has been wrong in large measure the past few months. This appears to be a situation where the train is moving too fast and no one wants to step in front of it.