coolhand's Account Talk

The S&P 500 outpaced the DWCPF today as both indexes posted gains to start the new week.

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DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 is very close to testing resistance at the previous peak. I am guessing that it will eventually push past resistance given the DWCPF did so several trading days ago. There is no overhead resistance on the DWCPF. Momentum continues to rise on both charts. I should point out that the DWCPF is now overbought according to RSI.

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Breadth continues to go vertical on this rally and remains bullish.

The market is due a pullback, but if this action has anything to do with the elections in early November any pullbacks may not be deep or last too long.

I remain bullish.
 
The bulls closed out a great week with even more gains on Friday.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 is pulling away from the 50 dma, but resistance looms at the previous peak. Price on the DWCPF has already sliced through resistance at its previous peak and continues to probe higher with no overhead resistance. Upside momentum continues to rise.

NYAD.png

Breadth ticked higher on Friday and remains bullish.

I have a strong feeling the bulls may find a way to continue driving price higher as we push toward the November elections. That doesn't mean straight up, but the timing of this rally is interesting. NAAIM came in modestly bullish yesterday and that is what we want to see if we're long stocks.

I remain bullish.
 
The bulls are having a great week this week and Thursday saw the rally continue.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the DWCPF is starting to stretch to the upside. The S&P 500 has a lot of catching up to day, but at least it's heading in the right direction. Momentum is rising. The DWCPF is getting close to being overbought.

NYAD.png

Breadth is looking very bullish and often when it gets this stretched it's usually time for a pullback, but that could still be days away (or not).

NAAIM went from modestly bearish last week to modestly bullish today. That's a good sign and is suggestive of more gains down the road.

As I mentioned above, a pullback could come soon, but with the DWCPF hitting all-time highs and breadth stretching to the upside a pullback may only be a reload for the bulls.

I remain bullish.
 
Today's NAAIM reading shows a healthy jump in bullishness as many bears have shifted their sentiment. The reading is not heavily bulled up, so there is still a lesser degree of caution among them. I see the reading as modestly bullish.
 
Price on the S&P 500 reversed yesterday's losses and closed at another high for this up-leg. It's in an area of resistance, but given the DWCPF just hit an all-time high I suspect the S&P 500 will find a way to push past this resistance.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Maybe the market doesn't exactly feel bullish, but these charts (especially the DWCPF) say that it really is on the bullish side to this point. The all-time high achieved by the DWCPF is hard to argue with. Perhaps it the wall of worry keeping the market on an upward track.

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Breadth is hard to argue with too and we can see that it is stretching to the upside.

NAAIM reports tomorrow and it will very interesting to see how they are now positioned given they were leaning bearish late last week.

I am moving from modestly bullish to bullish.
 
After daring to feel bullish yesterday the market reminded me that it's not one-sided (I already knew that).

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Once again, it's the S&P 500 that is struggling the most as price closed just under the 50 dma once again. But price on the DWCPF held up much better and that index continues to lead of late. It's hard to get bearish on the action as a total given the disparity.

NYAD.png

Breadth dipped, but remains solidly bullish.

This is an interesting market right now where small caps are leading large caps despite the economic risks (perceived or real).

I am going to remain modestly bullish taking my cues from the DWCPF for now.
 
The bulls started out the week with a big rally. The action was decisively bullish.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 closed above the 50 dma once again, but what is more bullish is price on the DWCPF, which soared and is not far from testing its all-time high. Also, price has been above the 50 dma for several trading days, which is bullish.

NYAD.png

Breadth, which was already bullish, shot higher and is looking very bullish.

It's beginning to look obvious that this market may be stronger than it has appeared. Even the smart money has been caught (to some extent) on the wrong side of the market.

I myself have been neutral of late, but have also acknowledged that there were bullish signs. I am now moving to a modestly bullish stance. I want to see the S&P 500 hold price above the 50 dma and I'd like to see price push past the previous high on the DWCPF. If today's rally was more than just a 1-day pop, this could be a big week for the bulls. We'll see how it goes.
 
The bulls lost some ground on Friday, but they did close out the week with gains on C and S funds.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price closed back under the 50 dma on the S&P 500, but remained above that average on the DWCPF. This remains the battleground area for the time being.

NYAD.png

Breadth is positive and actually advanced on Friday. This is a good sign for the bulls even as the S&P struggles a bit.

So, the charts are looking okay for the most part, but obviously the market is not out of the woods. NAAIM was modestly bearish late last week and until they start getting more bullish I think the market may continue to struggle. TSP Talk came in bullish. More so than I would have expected.

Overall, the bulls are doing a good job of holding off the bears and have even been making headway in turning price back up. But as I said, the market is still not out of the woods.

I remain neutral, but encouraged.
 
The bulls made a move today to push price past resistance at the 50 dma.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The DWCPF is leading the SPX in this regard and it's a bullish move.

NYAD.png

Breadth rose and flipped positive.

NAAIM was relatively unchanged and does remain modestly bearish.

I was neutral heading into today and I'm going to maintain that neutral stance for now, but I'm encouraged by today's action.
 
The latest NAAIM reading changed only modestly. The bears have reduced their short leverage, which appears to be the reason for the modest change in reading. Overall, the reading does remain bearish, but only modestly so. I would say that this reading suggests more back and forth battle over price, but no clear expectation of a breakout or breakdown.
 
We got another test at resistance (50 dma) today.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Early on in the trading day it appeared the bulls might have a great day and successful test. Instead, they had an okay day and a tentatively successful test as the bears managed to push price back down in afternoon trade. Price closed above the 50 dma on both charts. The problem is it did so only marginally. This is not a convincing test and only shows that the 50 dma is a battleground area. It could go either way right now. Volume was low on the last day of the quarter.

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Breadth rose and is neutral once more.

I don't have any insight on where this market goes in the short term. It seems to be in neutral right now. We get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow. Maybe that reading will give us a better idea.
 
Price got rejected at resistance today on the S&P 500, but found support on the DWCPF.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

I won't make too much of it because price didn't move all that much. A retest should be expected.

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Breadth dipped back under the shown averages and is now technically bearish.

The battle continues. I remain neutral.
 
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