clester's Account Talk

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Thanks guys.

got my 50% sell signal. All 3 funds have RSI over 70. So I'm going 50 C 50 G cob Jan 2nd. C fund because it's usually less volatile than the others. I'll be looking for a test of the 50dma for a re-entry.

Happy New Year!
 
clester said:
Thanks guys.

got my 50% sell signal. All 3 funds have RSI over 70. So I'm going 50 C 50 G cob Jan 2nd. C fund because it's usually less volatile than the others. I'll be looking for a test of the 50dma for a re-entry.

Happy New Year!
Click to expand...
So.. Missed the top by a day. I'll be looking for that 50 dma for a possible entry or a sell if it doesn't hold.
 
New week and Holidays are over. Back to the grind. I'm actually ready to get back to my routine.

We have come off the oversold readings on the RSI which gave me the 50% sell signal. The reason I only sell 50% is that in a bull market things are biased to the upside and I've learned to keep 50% in so that I don't miss out on rallies if we have one and the other 50% I trade with. It comes from years of missing out and kicking myself when it doesn't work out with 100% trades. In a Bear market the bias is down so I keep 50% out. There is a lot to psychological trading, at least with me. This way I never completely miss out. I can claim victory either way when I use the 50-50 rule.

So my system will keep me here until we test the 50 dma or breakout to new highs as long as the RSI doesn't get too high. I think we should at least test the breakout at about 1810.

I think we could have some sideways action this year. Range bound with a slight bias up. That should make this year more of a traders market and less buy and hold. We'll see. Of course, I will just play my system.
 
clester said:
New week and Holidays are over. Back to the grind. I'm actually ready to get back to my routine.

We have come off the oversold readings on the RSI which gave me the 50% sell signal. The reason I only sell 50% is that in a bull market things are biased to the upside and I've learned to keep 50% in so that I don't miss out on rallies if we have one and the other 50% I trade with. It comes from years of missing out and kicking myself when it doesn't work out with 100% trades. In a Bear market the bias is down so I keep 50% out. There is a lot to psychological trading, at least with me. This way I never completely miss out. I can claim victory either way when I use the 50-50 rule.

So my system will keep me here until we test the 50 dma or breakout to new highs as long as the RSI doesn't get too high. I think we should at least test the breakout at about 1810.

I think we could have some sideways action this year. Range bound with a slight bias up. That should make this year more of a traders market and less buy and hold. We'll see. Of course, I will just play my system.
Click to expand...

I sure hope we get some good gains this year. I need them. I am trying to catch Birchtree.
 
Today's action is a good example of why i don't sell 100% in a bull market. The bias is up and if I leave 50% in then I won't miss out if it goes against my indicators like the RSI.

I still got some upside!
 
clester said:
Today's action is a good example of why i don't sell 100% in a bull market. The bias is up and if I leave 50% in then I won't miss out if it goes against my indicators like the RSI.

I still got some upside!
Click to expand...

I tend to agree and have changed by perspective on mixed allocations during 2013. My first inclination is to fire a 100% allocation IFT with sheer & utter certainty but those type of setups didn't present themselves often enough last year. Keeping some skin in the game (when timing the market is difficult) is an excellent strategy.
 
A bit of a reversal so far today showing a topping candle? S fund briefly made a new high and C fund still hasn't. Rsi's are below 70 and in a downtrend. Still nothing here for my system. I need a new high or a test of the 50DMA.
 
clester said:
A bit of a reversal so far today showing a topping candle? S fund briefly made a new high and C fund still hasn't. Rsi's are below 70 and in a downtrend. Still nothing here for my system. I need a new high or a test of the 50DMA.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info
 
At this moment futures are up and indicate we may make a new high. If so and RSI'S don't go over 70 I will have a buy signal. But I love we go back over 70 it will flip back to sell 50%. So I'm thinking it would be a short term buy.
 
clester said:
At this moment futures are up and indicate we may make a new high. If so and RSI'S don't go over 70 I will have a buy signal. But I love we go back over 70 it will flip back to sell 50%. So I'm thinking it would be a short term buy.
Click to expand...

It looks like we have a downtrend starting and I expect we may get a test of the 50 dam now. I used to have a automatic sell signal with a big down day on S&P over 20 points. But now that the S&P is so high I have been thinking of how to better give a sell signal on a percentage basis instead of a number. So, I am thinking of using 1.5% which at current levels would be about 27 points. We didn't quite get there today.

I will be looking for a test of the 50 DMA and for it to hold to get another buy signal. That may be tomorrow but during this long term rally a drop like this has been a buying opportunity. I would love to get one more drop to get a good signal.
 
clester said:
It looks like we have a downtrend starting and I expect we may get a test of the 50 dam now. I used to have a automatic sell signal with a big down day on S&P over 20 points. But now that the S&P is so high I have been thinking of how to better give a sell signal on a percentage basis instead of a number. So, I am thinking of using 1.5% which at current levels would be about 27 points. We didn't quite get there today.

I will be looking for a test of the 50 DMA and for it to hold to get another buy signal. That may be tomorrow but during this long term rally a drop like this has been a buying opportunity. I would love to get one more drop to get a good signal.
Click to expand...

Bam! So it was a buying opportunity again.

So, I need a new high or a test of the 50DMA to buy. Not there yet.

That 50-50 exposure is working its charm.
 
jkenjohnson said:
So what kind of App did you decide to develop?
Click to expand...

Still waiting for my iOS class to start next week. I am considering an app for my system since it would be very useful but my wife is a second grade teacher and I'm thinking of making an educational app for the students. Could be a big market in education!

A new high was made but I'll wait for the close. We could have a little room to get to that RSI of 70 again. (now about 63) The RSI is in a downtrend so this may not last.
 
System update: Hold 50 C 50 G

Mixed signals from various charts. S fund has a buy and C fund and I fund are close but hasn't made another high yet . RSI's are not a problem and we are in a Bull market. So, since I use the S&P for my signals I am still holding 50-50. I am happy with this 50-50 holding. It gives me piece of mind which ever way the market goes.
 
clester said:
System update: Hold 50 C 50 G

Mixed signals from various charts. S fund has a buy and C fund and I fund are close but hasn't made another high yet . RSI's are not a problem and we are in a Bull market. So, since I use the S&P for my signals I am still holding 50-50. I am happy with this 50-50 holding. It gives me piece of mind which ever way the market goes.
Click to expand...

The SP500 50 dma is at 1812 or so. I would get a buy signal with a good test and bounce there!
 
If the pattern continues tomorrow will be an up day. These big down days have been buying opportunities. Watch out when that pattern stops.
 
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