MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Exactly what I was thinking.
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
Exactly what I was thinking.
clester
Well-known member
That is just a general target. Most of the time the 50dma is broken and goes below and then rebounds. So, I wait for the bounce back above it to get a 100% buy in this situation.Originally Posted by clester
The SP500 50 dma is at 1812 or so. I would get a buy signal with a good test and bounce there!
Has that 1812 target changed after today? I noticed Uptrend had 1828 (breached) and 1816 as significant targets...
clester
Well-known member
So, the 50 dma has been breached so I just need a bounce to get the buy signal. I also have a bail out signal if we get a huge down day because they seem to have follow through. I had it a -20 points on S&P but since its gotten so high I have decided to use a percentage. I haven't nailed that down but 1.5% on S&P is what I'm thinking. We are close to that today. That would mean a sell to 100% bonds.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I got out last week. Did you go 100%F?
clester
Well-known member
Nope. I'm 50%C and 50%G. If we finish more than 1.5% down I will probably sell. I'm tempted to see if we bounce Monday first though. We just went below the 50 dma and I would like to give it a chance to rebound but my system says sell automatically. The close should be interesting.
clester
Well-known member
An interesting position for my system. The big down day has given me a sell signal but I have been evaluating some changes to that signal. Right now it gives an overriding sell 100% on S&P down days over 1.5%. This bull market has not been good to this signal. Instead, its been a buying opportunity. So, I'm wondering if that should be for bear markets only.
Other than that, we have broken the 50dma which is a 50% sell but I already had that from the RSI over 70 a while back. I would get another sell if we went below the 200 dma. So, I am looking for a bounce now to indicate the selling is over before buying. Ideally, we would get above the 50DMA and I would have a 100% buy signal or RSI below 30 with a bounce.
so, for now I'm thinking of ignoring the big down day signal and just use the other indicators. That means staying put for now and looking for the bounce. The 50-50 approach is working perfectly as I designed it. I'm only losing on the 50% in C fund.
Other than that, we have broken the 50dma which is a 50% sell but I already had that from the RSI over 70 a while back. I would get another sell if we went below the 200 dma. So, I am looking for a bounce now to indicate the selling is over before buying. Ideally, we would get above the 50DMA and I would have a 100% buy signal or RSI below 30 with a bounce.
so, for now I'm thinking of ignoring the big down day signal and just use the other indicators. That means staying put for now and looking for the bounce. The 50-50 approach is working perfectly as I designed it. I'm only losing on the 50% in C fund.
clester
Well-known member
Your welcome. I may be making an iOS app to automate my system.
My last IFT was Jan 2nd.
clester
Well-known member
It almost a perfect scenario for a buy. Good support level at about 1780 held. The 50 dma was busted and as it usually happens prices dipped below. With the bounce so far in futures I have a buy. The only thing missing is an RSI reading below 30. We're at 34 now. Close enough? I think so with everything else lined up. I will have a stop loss at1780 in case I'm wrong.
Let's see what it looks like in a few hours
Let's see what it looks like in a few hours
clester
Well-known member
Market is holding up. . I'm buying today although I should probably wait for until the S&P retakes the 50DMA (my system calls for this) but S fund is back above its 50DMA and we should bounce to at least test the 50 DMA on S&P and hopefully retake it. I will sell 100% if we get a lower low for yesterday.
clester
Well-known member
Market is holding up. . I'm buying today although I should probably wait for until the S&P retakes the 50DMA (my system calls for this) but S fund is back above its 50DMA and we should bounce to at least test the 50 DMA on S&P and hopefully retake it. I will sell 100% if we get a lower low for yesterday.
clester
Well-known member
Guess my system was right! So, now I'm watching 1780 for a sell signal. My system calls for me too be 50% in stocks because we are in a bull market so I will sell 50% if we hit my stop target. I am surprised we didn't have follow through and causes me concern for a deeper pull back. The pattern we've been in for a long time may be breaking
clester
Well-known member
Guess my system was right! So, now I'm watching 1780 for a sell signal. My system calls for me too be 50% in stocks because we are in a bull market so I will sell 50% if we hit my stop target. I am surprised we didn't have follow through and causes me concern for a deeper pull back. The pattern we've been in for a long time may be breaking
Market holding up so far. Holding today.
100% S
clester
Well-known member
Well, thats what I get for going against my system. Selling 50% tomorrow. Hope we have an up day.
So, again I will be looking for a bounce back to the (S&P) 50 DMA for a buy or an RSI Below 30 (now at 34, so a few more down days) and a break below the 200DMA for a 100% sell. Looks like I'll be in this 50% position for a while.
50% G 50% S
F fund is a buy but I'm out of trades except to G fund.
clester
Well-known member
Making a move against my system has caused me start make decisions I'm not comfortable with and is the reason I made the system to begin with. Todays bounce has caused me to rethink my selling 50% today. The S fund never got to its sell point (lower low) but the C fund did which my system uses. But, I'm in S fund... So, the sell stop should be for the fund I'm in...right?
My system would still be 50%C 50%G until we retake the 50 DMA on S&P or drop below the 200 DMA
JTH
Well-known member
I don't think the problem is with the system, I think there's a short between the keyboard & chair :cheesy:
clester
Well-known member
Thought I'd give a fund by fund signal based on my system.
C fund moderate buy
S fund strong buy
I fund moderate buy
F fund strong buy
so the question might be how to allocate in this situation. I think you have to be biased toward stocks. The best stock fund is S fund. Therefore 100 % S fund is the best allocation imo.
C fund moderate buy
S fund strong buy
I fund moderate buy
F fund strong buy
so the question might be how to allocate in this situation. I think you have to be biased toward stocks. The best stock fund is S fund. Therefore 100 % S fund is the best allocation imo.
Bquat
Well-known member
Stock money goes into bonds on bad days, bond money goes into stocks on good days. This scenario of both being positive is like on a QE pump day. Now on QE taper days I don't see it. IMHO I have been known to be wrong.:suspicious:
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