clester's Account Talk

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tsptalk said:
Agree that sentiment isn't overly bullish on most surveys right now, but this one is certainly the outlier ... 4 to 1? Wow...

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I Agree It Looks Bad On That chart. I tend to go with my own feelings and anecdotal data rather than surveys. It's not scientific but it works for me.
 
Glad I don't have to worry over the fed today. My system ignores news events. Trying to guess which way the market reacts is a toss up usually. The only concern I have is that we need a new all time high soon or the rally could fade. Still on buy.
 
Sometimes we have to put in a December low so we can have a reason for the December Low indicator in
the first quarter of 2014
 
New high has been made. RSI levels in good shape. S and C funds bounced right at the 50 DMA. Here comes Santa Claus..Here comes Santa claus.....

I think the rally will continue this week and probably through the rest of the month. The only thing to watch now is the RSI over 70 to get an overbought reading.
 
clester said:
New high has been made. RSI levels in good shape. S and C funds bounced right at the 50 DMA. Here comes Santa Claus..Here comes Santa claus.....

I think the rally will continue this week and probably through the rest of the month. The only thing to watch now is the RSI over 70 to get an overbought reading.
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I've been thinking for a while that I need to adjust my "Big day signal" for lack of a better name. Now, when we have a down day over 20 points on S&P I get a sell signal. I came up with that number back when the S&P was much lower and to keep pace on a percentage basis I should raise the number. I'm guessing right now it should be about 30 points. For one thing it should be a rare thing and perhaps it should be adjusted for bull or bear markets? I'm not sure but I know during this long bull market it has given me some false signals.

I may try to write an iPad app during my class next semester to use my system to give daily signals. We have to come up with an idea for the semester project. My other ideas are some type of game or maybe a medical records app for small Dr. offices. Other ideas anyone?
 
System still on a buy with no warning flags. Just looking for an RSI reading over 70 for a 50% sell signal but thats a ways off. We could test the breakout yesterday soon which would be normal and good.

I expect the rally to last for another week or so to get us to that overbought area.
 
clester said:
System still on a buy with no warning flags. Just looking for an RSI reading over 70 for a 50% sell signal but thats a ways off. We could test the breakout yesterday soon which would be normal and good.

I expect the rally to last for another week or so to get us to that overbought area.
Click to expand...

Thanks for helping me stay calm durning the drop to the 50dma!
 
clester said:
Glad it worked out well. Futures looking again. Perhaps we'll be get to that overbought area sooner than later!
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Lots if folks selling today. If I didn't have my system I would have the urge too. Sell high! But there is plenty of room to run and the selling indicates that sentiment is not too high. I expect another percent or two before I get a sell signal.
 
daily
clester said:
I've been thinking for a while that I need to adjust my "Big day signal" for lack of a better name. Now, when we have a down day over 20 points on S&P I get a sell signal. I came up with that number back when the S&P was much lower and to keep pace on a percentage basis I should raise the number. I'm guessing right now it should be about 30 points. For one thing it should be a rare thing and perhaps it should be adjusted for bull or bear markets? I'm not sure but I know during this long bull market it has given me some false signals.

I may try to write an iPad app during my class next semester to use my system to give daily signals. We have to come up with an idea for the semester project. My other ideas are some type of game or maybe a medical records app for small Dr. offices. Other ideas anyone?
Click to expand...
daily signal app please
 
Getting close!

The S fund RSI got to 70 today. S fund and I fund are still a little below. I usually use the S&P for my signals because the others tend to overshoot more so I won't sell today but it could happen soon. RSI is at about 68.8 for S&P right now. Maybe tomorrow will be the day.

BTW, a sell in this environment is for 50% only according to my system because we are in a bull market and above the 50 dma.
 
clester said:
Getting close!

The S fund RSI got to 70 today. S fund and I fund are still a little below. I usually use the S&P for my signals because the others tend to overshoot more so I won't sell today but it could happen soon. RSI is at about 68.8 for S&P right now. Maybe tomorrow will be the day.

BTW, a sell in this environment is for 50% only according to my system because we are in a bull market and above the 50 dma.
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I'll be looking for signs of weakness, and the market rolling over. Not happening yet, maybe in a few days. Only selling 50% is a good idea. Or just stay long like BT. Market timing has been a bust this past year.
 
If we stay up this morning I'm selling 50%. RSI'S are topping 70. We are still in a bull market so I will keep at least 50% in stocks. Allocation will be 25 S 25 C 50 G.

I'll decide soon.
 
clester said:
If we stay up this morning I'm selling 50%. RSI'S are topping 70. We are still in a bull market so I will keep at least 50% in stocks. Allocation will be 25 S 25 C 50 G.

I'll decide soon.
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I went to 50% yesterday but forgot to post it on the auto tracker. I should finish 20% plus this year, which is still down in the 300's, but I am happy with that. Thanks for keeping us posted.
 
clester said:
No signal today it looks like.
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Still holding. We are close to a signal based on RSI but not quite there. Looks like I'll be in for the new year!

Looking back on the year I had a decent year in the markets but got off track this summer which cost me a bundle. Way below "buy and hold". I have a conservative approach since I'm retired but still not good.

Personally it was filled with a lot of family drama including the death of my father.

Hoping for a better new year. It will be hard for the markets to beat this year though. Good luck to everyone!
 
clester said:
Still holding. We are close to a signal based on RSI but not quite there. Looks like I'll be in for the new year!

Looking back on the year I had a decent year in the markets but got off track this summer which cost me a bundle. Way below "buy and hold". I have a conservative approach since I'm retired but still not good.

Personally it was filled with a lot of family drama including the death of my father.

Hoping for a better new year. It will be hard for the markets to beat this year though. Good luck to everyone!
Click to expand...

clester, I hope 2014 is a better year for you. It would be hard to imagine that 2014 will be a better year for our TSP, but who knows. I must admit that this is my best year since mid 2003 when I really started paying attention to my TSP account. Good luck to all.
 
So sorry to hear of your father's passing. There is a story behind every one of us here, and we only get a small glimpse of our real lives when it is occasionally revealed.

Hoping the new year brings success and good tidings to you and yours.
 
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