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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
So.. Missed the top by a day. I'll be looking for that 50 dma for a possible entry or a sell if it doesn't hold.
clester
Well-known member
New week and Holidays are over. Back to the grind. I'm actually ready to get back to my routine.
We have come off the oversold readings on the RSI which gave me the 50% sell signal. The reason I only sell 50% is that in a bull market things are biased to the upside and I've learned to keep 50% in so that I don't miss out on rallies if we have one and the other 50% I trade with. It comes from years of missing out and kicking myself when it doesn't work out with 100% trades. In a Bear market the bias is down so I keep 50% out. There is a lot to psychological trading, at least with me. This way I never completely miss out. I can claim victory either way when I use the 50-50 rule.
So my system will keep me here until we test the 50 dma or breakout to new highs as long as the RSI doesn't get too high. I think we should at least test the breakout at about 1810.
I think we could have some sideways action this year. Range bound with a slight bias up. That should make this year more of a traders market and less buy and hold. We'll see. Of course, I will just play my system.
We have come off the oversold readings on the RSI which gave me the 50% sell signal. The reason I only sell 50% is that in a bull market things are biased to the upside and I've learned to keep 50% in so that I don't miss out on rallies if we have one and the other 50% I trade with. It comes from years of missing out and kicking myself when it doesn't work out with 100% trades. In a Bear market the bias is down so I keep 50% out. There is a lot to psychological trading, at least with me. This way I never completely miss out. I can claim victory either way when I use the 50-50 rule.
So my system will keep me here until we test the 50 dma or breakout to new highs as long as the RSI doesn't get too high. I think we should at least test the breakout at about 1810.
I think we could have some sideways action this year. Range bound with a slight bias up. That should make this year more of a traders market and less buy and hold. We'll see. Of course, I will just play my system.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I sure hope we get some good gains this year. I need them. I am trying to catch Birchtree.
JTH
Well-known member
I tend to agree and have changed by perspective on mixed allocations during 2013. My first inclination is to fire a 100% allocation IFT with sheer & utter certainty but those type of setups didn't present themselves often enough last year. Keeping some skin in the game (when timing the market is difficult) is an excellent strategy.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Thanks for the info
clester
Well-known member
It looks like we have a downtrend starting and I expect we may get a test of the 50 dam now. I used to have a automatic sell signal with a big down day on S&P over 20 points. But now that the S&P is so high I have been thinking of how to better give a sell signal on a percentage basis instead of a number. So, I am thinking of using 1.5% which at current levels would be about 27 points. We didn't quite get there today.
I will be looking for a test of the 50 DMA and for it to hold to get another buy signal. That may be tomorrow but during this long term rally a drop like this has been a buying opportunity. I would love to get one more drop to get a good signal.
clester
Well-known member
Bam! So it was a buying opportunity again.
So, I need a new high or a test of the 50DMA to buy. Not there yet.
That 50-50 exposure is working its charm.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I think you might get your new high soon.
jkenjohnson
Active member
So what kind of App did you decide to develop?
clester
Well-known member
Still waiting for my iOS class to start next week. I am considering an app for my system since it would be very useful but my wife is a second grade teacher and I'm thinking of making an educational app for the students. Could be a big market in education!
A new high was made but I'll wait for the close. We could have a little room to get to that RSI of 70 again. (now about 63) The RSI is in a downtrend so this may not last.
clester
Well-known member
System update: Hold 50 C 50 G
Mixed signals from various charts. S fund has a buy and C fund and I fund are close but hasn't made another high yet . RSI's are not a problem and we are in a Bull market. So, since I use the S&P for my signals I am still holding 50-50. I am happy with this 50-50 holding. It gives me piece of mind which ever way the market goes.
Mixed signals from various charts. S fund has a buy and C fund and I fund are close but hasn't made another high yet . RSI's are not a problem and we are in a Bull market. So, since I use the S&P for my signals I am still holding 50-50. I am happy with this 50-50 holding. It gives me piece of mind which ever way the market goes.
clester
Well-known member
The SP500 50 dma is at 1812 or so. I would get a buy signal with a good test and bounce there!
jkenjohnson
Active member
Finish the App yet?
jkenjohnson
Active member
Oh, I thought you had already been working on it.
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