clester's Account Talk

[clester]

Stock money goes into bonds on bad days, bond money goes into stocks on good days. This scenario of both being positive is like on a QE pump day. Now on QE taper days I don't see it. IMHO I have been known to be wrong.:suspicious:

The F fund is now reaching overbought area. It's RSI is about 70 which is a sell. It's in a Bull market since 50DMA is above 200 DMA (which just recently happened) so I say we're looking at a pullback now in F fund.

S fund is still holding tough. No sell until we breach the recent lows. So still on Buy. Holding right at 50DMA

C fund is still moderate buy. In a bull market but between 50DMA and 200 DMA so be cautious.

I fund is on moderate buy because its in a Bull market still but its approaching its 200 DMA and well below 50DMA so be cautious. A breach of that and we're on a 100% sell.

 

[clester]

The F fund is now reaching overbought area. It's RSI is about 70 which is a sell. It's in a Bull market since 50DMA is above 200 DMA (which just recently happened) so I say we're looking at a pullback now in F fund.

S fund is still holding tough. No sell until we breach the recent lows. So still on Buy. Holding right at 50DMA

C fund is still moderate buy. In a bull market but between 50DMA and 200 DMA so be cautious.

I fund is on moderate buy because its in a Bull market still but its approaching its 200 DMA and well below 50DMA so be cautious. A breach of that and we're on a 100% sell.

S fund is teetering on a sell today. 960 is the last low and we have tested it today. If it breaks I will sell 50% S.

 

[clester]

S fund is teetering on a sell today. 960 is the last low and we have tested it today. If it breaks I will sell 50% S.

Sell triggered. C, S , I and F are in 50% buy areas. In bull markets but in between 50 and 100 DMA's

System says 50% stocks so Ill go with C fund since its usually leads volatile. F fund hit RSI of 70 recently so its overbought,

50% C, 50% G

 

[clester]

Sell triggered. C, S , I and F are in 50% buy areas. In bull markets but in between 50 and 100 DMA's

System says 50% stocks so Ill go with C fund since its usually leads volatile. F fund hit RSI of 70 recently so its overbought,

50% C, 50% G

Change it a little. I fund is has RSI of 30 which is a buy. 50% I 50 G

 

[clester]

Change it a little. I fund is has RSI of 30 which is a buy. 50% I 50 G

Looking closely I see the I fund with a really good chance to bounce hard from here. Below 30 on RSI almost to the 200 DMA.
That's a buy unless we drop below the 200DMA for more than a day or two. I'll be looking to go 100% I fund if it bounces. My system would give me a 100% buy signal.

 

[clester]

C fund - sell because of the big down day. But still in bull market and still above RSI of 30. Its below the 50 DMA (which itself is a 50% sell) and in a downtrend.

S Fund - ditto

I fund - moderate buy because it went below 30 RSI which means its way oversold and still in bull market. It's below the 50DMA. Needs to stay above 200 DMA or bounce soon after dropping below or it goes to sell.

F Fund - Moderate Buy because its RSI is over 70 (50% sell) and is in bull market and above the 50DMA (Buy). I wouldn't buy now though. Wait for a pullback.

So, My system is 50% I fund and 50% G fund.

 

[clester]

C fund - sell because of the big down day. But still in bull market and still above RSI of 30. Its below the 50 DMA (which itself is a 50% sell) and in a downtrend.

S Fund - ditto

I fund - moderate buy because it went below 30 RSI which means its way oversold and still in bull market. It's below the 50DMA. Needs to stay above 200 DMA or bounce soon after dropping below or it goes to sell.

F Fund - Moderate Buy because its RSI is over 70 (50% sell) and is in bull market and above the 50DMA (Buy). I wouldn't buy now though. Wait for a pullback.

So, My system is 50% I fund and 50% G fund.

Perfect call from my system for the I fund bounce. Also, F fund looks to have topped adding fuel to a stock rally. I fund looks great. C and S still look iffy.

I will be going 100% I if there is some follow through in the I fund..

 

[ebbnflow]

Perfect call from my system for the I fund bounce. Also, F fund looks to have topped adding fuel to a stock rally. I fund looks great. C and S still look iffy.

I will be going 100% I if there is some follow through in the I fund..

Final MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -1.29% in the I-fund, but if we add Monday's FV buffer of +1.12%, then the I-find will be down -0.17% for today (barring any unexpected +FV).

 

[clester]

Final MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -1.29% in the I-fund, but if we add Monday's FV buffer of +1.12%, then the I-find will be down -0.17% for today (barring any unexpected +FV).

Live that fair value

 

[ebbnflow]

Love that fair value

The TSP overlords decided to tack on a +FV of +0.54%, so instead of the I-fund being down -0.17%, it's up +0.37% today. Tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.54% from the get-go.

 

[clester]

The TSP overlords decided to tack on a +FV of +0.54%, so instead of the I-fund being down -0.17%, it's up +0.37% today. Tomorrow, the I-funders will carry an FV baggage of -0.54% from the get-go.

Might make it a good time to add to I fund if the efa index is flat to up. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes a run back to the 200 dma or a little through it. We have some big gaps above to fill. It won't be long until we get a good bounce.

 

[clester]

C fund did get an RSI reading about 30 which is a buy but its also in between the 50 and 200 DMAs and in a downtrend. So i'm cautious.
S fund hasn't sold off enough to get a good buy signal and its also in between the 50 and 200 DMA and in a downtrend. So I'm cautious.
F fund got to overbought based on RSI but is above both 50 and 200 DMA and in Bull market. So, I'm cautious here too.

I fund Hit an RSI below 30 so its a buy. It also bounced off its 200 DMA which is a positive. It's still in a bull market but in a downtrend.

Based on those metrics I'm staying 50% I fund for now but looking to add my other 50%. Right now I'm still leaning on adding more I fund as long as we stay above the 200 DMA

 

[clester]

C fund did get an RSI reading about 30 which is a buy but its also in between the 50 and 200 DMAs and in a downtrend. So i'm cautious.
S fund hasn't sold off enough to get a good buy signal and its also in between the 50 and 200 DMA and in a downtrend. So I'm cautious.
F fund got to overbought based on RSI but is above both 50 and 200 DMA and in Bull market. So, I'm cautious here too.

I fund Hit an RSI below 30 so its a buy. It also bounced off its 200 DMA which is a positive. It's still in a bull market but in a downtrend.

Based on those metrics I'm staying 50% I fund for now but looking to add my other 50%. Right now I'm still leaning on adding more I fund as long as we stay above the 200 DMA

I fund still looking good. Gapped up today leaving gaps above and below. So, I am still cautious but if tomorrow turns out OK with the jobs report I plan on going 100% I fund.

C and S funds still in no mans land and haven't tested 200DMA yet like the I fund did. So, I'm very cautious there.
F fund has topped out short term when the RSI went over 70, but its a cautious buy. Not worth using an IFT for IMO.

I don't like using the news items to trade on but the jobs report will probably be volatile so I'm waiting it out.

 

[Birchtree]

"Non-Japanese investors plowed $145 billion into Japan shares in 2013, the most in more than a decade. That helped the Nikkei Stock Average rise 57% in 2013, its best annual performance in more than four decades. Even with the resurgent interest in Japan, overseas investors still have relatively small exposure to the country. The opportunity is still to get into Japanese equities. Rising profits and falling share prices have made Japanese stocks more attractive. The Nikkei is now trading at 14.1 times forecast earnings. This price/earnings ratio was 16.6 at the end of 2013." I believe the I fund is comprised of 23% Japanese stocks - so I still believe in the bull trade in Japan. Last year the yen weakened by 18% and that move is not yet completed.

 

[JTH]

I fund still looking good. Gapped up today leaving gaps above and below. So, I am still cautious but if tomorrow turns out OK with the jobs report I plan on going 100% I fund.

C and S funds still in no mans land and haven't tested 200DMA yet like the I fund did. So, I'm very cautious there.
F fund has topped out short term when the RSI went over 70, but its a cautious buy. Not worth using an IFT for IMO.

I don't like using the news items to trade on but the jobs report will probably be volatile so I'm waiting it out.

Great stuff Clester, just curious, what type of filters are you using to prevent whiplash during the volitile trading ranges?

 

[catak]

Sir, could you provide some insight on RSI and DMA and the system that I can download or your system to make smart choices before buying/selling? v/r

 

[clester]

Great stuff Clester, just curious, what type of filters are you using to prevent whiplash during the volitile trading ranges?

Thats a tough one. I generally like to be out under high volatility periods. So, I use a 1.5% down day threshold on S&P as a trigger to get out and stay out until I get another signal. That hasn't worked too well on this last bull run.

Also, the system's buy and sell signals don't trigger very often. That avoids having too many signals since we only get 2 and also serves to limit whiplash. I only use moving averages and RSI values mostly and make use of the 50% stocks 50% bonds allocation like I have now.

 

[clester]

Sir, could you provide some insight on RSI and DMA and the system that I can download or your system to make smart choices before buying/selling? v/r

I don't have a system to download. although, I am going to write an iOS app to do that. It may be awhile.

Basics of my system:
RSI is used to indicate overbought (over 70) and oversold (under 30) conditions. It doesn't trigger very often which helps minimize trades. It has a good track record but could cause an early buy or sell. I use the S&P's RSI because its less volatile and hardly ever gives an early signal. The S fund is more volatile and needs to get close to 80 or 20 to trigger a buy/sell.

The DMA (Day moving averages) I use are the 50 and 200. Others like various periods. It gives you a general direction of trend averaged over the period. I consider markets to be in Bull market when the 50 is over the 200 and Bear Market when the 50 is below the 200. This comes into play in my system in a couple of ways.
1. Bull markets means at least 50% stocks
2. Bear Markets means at least 50% bonds
3. Bull market and price is above 50 DMA then 100% buy
4. Bear market and price below 50 DMA then 100% Bonds.
5. I also take into account when prices are near these MA's to trigger a buy or sell, For example, I went I fund because it was declining and reached its 200DMA and bounced. Also, the RSI got to 30. The system actually triggered a 100% buy today because we have follow through on the bounce.

A word of caution. Don't rely on any other's system or market calls. It will frustrate you. It did me. Everyone is different and you need to come up with decisions on your own. Figure out what works for you. My system is fairly conservative, You may like more aggressive or very conservative, for example. Most folks here don't like the 50-50 trade like my system uses. I probably won't ever be at the top of the leaderboard. But, I'm ok with that.

Also, don't jump around between systems like I used to. Stick with a plan you come up with. My system isn't doing that great at the moment but I'm not switching around trying new stuff. I like my system. It helps me sleep at night.

 

[clester]

All 3 stock funds are in "no mans land" so to speak. In between the 50 and 200 DMA's. I need a close above the 50 to go all in and a close or 2 below the 200 to get all out.

So, just waiting it out for now.

 

[clester]

All 3 stock funds are in "no mans land" so to speak. In between the 50 and 200 DMA's. I need a close above the 50 to go all in and a close or 2 below the 200 to get all out.

So, just waiting it out for now.

The 50dma is big today on all 3 stock funds. A close above will be a buy.