clester's Account Talk

[BichonFreeze]

That's what I'm finding since I started this new strategy in January. I've been considering going with the long run strategy of sticking with a 50/50 C/S split or 100 S, but I'd at least like to time my entry to get more shares for my dollar. According to an article on TSP millionaires I read earlier today, the long run strategy seems to be their preference.

 

[sniper]

Heck I was skeptical for the last half of 2013 and you know what that got me? A lost chance to make money. I was waiting and waiting for a pullback that never happened. I'm hoping I can ride this month out invested so I have both IFTs in March to use to get out and back in if need be.

Happened to me as well, and a lot of other people, it's tough to outperform a bull market. In my experience it also seems harder to call a top than a bottom.

had much more success trading when i stopped trying to short the market as well, but instead just waiting for good times to buy

 

[clester]

Happened to me as well, and a lot of other people, it's tough to outperform a bull market. y

This is exactly why I have my rule of staying in at least 50% stocks during Bull markets. Same is true of Bear markets. I stay out at least 50%.


The system has no warning signs but we need to get above the highs still. A failure is trouble. What constitutes a failure? I guess for my system its a drop below the 50 dma.

I am back to about even with the C fund. That makes me smile. If I can just keep it going!

Another sell for me would be an RSI over 70 but we have some room.

 

[clester]

Market working as my system predicted. I expect new highs soon. We have some time until until the RSI gets into overbought zone and we're well above the 50DMA's.

RSI of 70 is a warning flag on S&P but S fund is up to about 80. This is just based on my past experience. Since I'm in S and I funds I'll be watching them closely.

 

[clester]

Market working as my system predicted. I expect new highs soon. We have some time until until the RSI gets into overbought zone and we're well above the 50DMA's.

RSI of 70 is a warning flag on S&P but S fund is up to about 80. This is just based on my past experience. Since I'm in S and I funds I'll be watching them closely.

Nothing new to report. I've been hearing a lot of chatter especially on TV about how we should be taking profits now and its time to have a correction. I think we will soon but I don't see any signs of it yet. There is enough room above the RSI indicators for several more percent. S Fund is at about 65 and can go to at least 70 before my system gets a sell. Even then it would only be a 50% sell. The I fund is a little lower.

S fund made a new high and retested that yesterday. Barely went lower and rebounded. That would make a good spot for a sell stop since it is now a good support line.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Nothing new to report. I've been hearing a lot of chatter especially on TV about how we should be taking profits now and its time to have a correction. I think we will soon but I don't see any signs of it yet. There is enough room above the RSI indicators for several more percent. S Fund is at about 65 and can go to at least 70 before my system gets a sell. Even then it would only be a 50% sell. The I fund is a little lower.

S fund made a new high and retested that yesterday. Barely went lower and rebounded. That would make a good spot for a sell stop since it is now a good support line.

You've got that crystal ball fine tuned.

 

[clester]

You've got that crystal ball fine tuned.

Well, at least I'm back in the green YTD!

Notice several folks going into S fund today. Probably get more of that as we head into March. I like to be invested going into a new month as well. It gives you another trade basically. Its not worth doing just for that but if your on the fence it may sway you.

We have a couple of percent to go but I'm seeing a partial sell signal coming soon because we just keep going up. Watch that RSI indicator.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Nothing new to report. I've been hearing a lot of chatter especially on TV about how we should be taking profits now and its time to have a correction. I think we will soon but I don't see any signs of it yet. There is enough room above the RSI indicators for several more percent. S Fund is at about 65 and can go to at least 70 before my system gets a sell. Even then it would only be a 50% sell. The I fund is a little lower.

S fund made a new high and retested that yesterday. Barely went lower and rebounded. That would make a good spot for a sell stop since it is now a good support line.

Thanks for your posts. Never gave the RSI a whole lot of attention until you pointed out your observances. Now I tend to look at it more closely (along with other indicators, of course).

 

[clester]

Thanks for your posts. Never gave the RSI a whole lot of attention until you pointed out your observances. Now I tend to look at it more closely (along with other indicators, of course).

Glad you find them helpful.

I decided for my system to work within TSP trade rules I needed something that didn't cause me to trade so much. RSI fits the bill. Also, I wanted to try and keep it as simple as possible. Not over analyze. I've found that doesn't work for me.

I'm glad we aren't just going straight up. Having some mixed action is best for the markets. Looks like I'll get to be invested for the 1st of the month because we are not going to trigger a sell in my system yet. We have a little room left to the upside and the S fund is well above its 50dma. I use $emw to track it and to test the breakout would be down to 1010 or so. A successful test of breakouts or moving averages is a very positive sign.

 

[clester]

Glad you find them helpful.

I decided for my system to work within TSP trade rules I needed something that didn't cause me to trade so much. RSI fits the bill. Also, I wanted to try and keep it as simple as possible. Not over analyze. I've found that doesn't work for me.

I'm glad we aren't just going straight up. Having some mixed action is best for the markets. Looks like I'll get to be invested for the 1st of the month because we are not going to trigger a sell in my system yet. We have a little room left to the upside and the S fund is well above its 50dma. I use $emw to track it and to test the breakout would be down to 1010 or so. A successful test of breakouts or moving averages is a very positive sign.

The S fund is getting pretty close to my RSI signal. It's at 67. The S fund can go above it though and a for sure sell would be about 75 or 80. The C fund is definitely a sell at 70 and its only at 62. I tend to watch the S&P signal since it gives a good reliable signal on the RSI at 70. Therefor, I expect the S fund could rise well above the 70 signal.

So, I will have a decision to make if we get a big pop tomorrow and the S fund's RSI jumps to 70. I don't know how much it would take but maybe a 1% or so pop. I don't think it will be long in any case. My preference is to be in going into march just to save a trade.

 

[clester]

The S fund is getting pretty close to my RSI signal. It's at 67. The S fund can go above it though and a for sure sell would be about 75 or 80. The C fund is definitely a sell at 70 and its only at 62. I tend to watch the S&P signal since it gives a good reliable signal on the RSI at 70. Therefor, I expect the S fund could rise well above the 70 signal.

So, I will have a decision to make if we get a big pop tomorrow and the S fund's RSI jumps to 70. I don't know how much it would take but maybe a 1% or so pop. I don't think it will be long in any case. My preference is to be in going into march just to save a trade.

Well, it looks like I'm staying in. I feel like we are near a top and I'm getting a little nervous. My system is still on buy though. The RSI on the S fund is about 69 at the time of this post. Over 70 is a warning flag. The C and I funds are mid 60's and the C fund gives the best signal so I'll be watching it for a signal. Maybe nest week if we keep the trend going.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Well, it looks like I'm staying in. I feel like we are near a top and I'm getting a little nervous. My system is still on buy though. The RSI on the S fund is about 69 at the time of this post. Over 70 is a warning flag. The C and I funds are mid 60's and the C fund gives the best signal so I'll be watching it for a signal. Maybe nest week if we keep the trend going.

Its like you are the passenger in a car looking at the speedometer thinking you are going slower than you really are...

 

[clester]

Well, it looks like I'm staying in. I feel like we are near a top and I'm getting a little nervous.

Guess I know why I was feeling nervous now.

I have a bold prediction though. The markets will stage a comeback today (Maybe not to positive territory) and work up to a new high this week.

The S fund breakout point on $emw is about 1009 the S&P about 1850. IT is very common to test those breakouts before moving higher. If those don't hold the we may have to test the 50 DMA's. The I fund doesn't look as good and only has the 50 dma as good support. I may end up selling my I fund this week but we'll see.

I don't trade on news events and this is most likely a temporary dip which was due to come. Patience (and Don't be afraid) is the word IMO. Its a long way down to my sell 50% zone which is the 50 DMA area.

 

[JTH]

Guess I know why I was feeling nervous now.

I have a bold prediction though. The markets will stage a comeback today (Maybe not to positive territory) and work up to a new high this week.

The S fund breakout point on $emw is about 1009 the S&P about 1850. IT is very common to test those breakouts before moving higher. If those don't hold the we may have to test the 50 DMA's. The I fund doesn't look as good and only has the 50 dma as good support. I may end up selling my I fund this week but we'll see.

I don't trade on news events and this is most likely a temporary dip which was due to come. Patience (and Don't be afraid) is the word IMO. Its a long way down to my sell 50% zone which is the 50 DMA area.

Last night under Google's Top stories, they had listed Ukcrain, China, Bitcoin and Warren Buffet. What does it mean? It means 4 celeb/sports stories somehow got bumped off the top-10 rotation, somebody will get fired over this. :cheesy:

 

[clester]

As of now: 3:15 the S fund has had a perfect bounce off its breakout point of 1009 ish and the I fund has bounced off its 50 DMA a little. This is a perfect scenario for a bounce to continue. Tomorrow will be interesting

 

[clester]

As of now: 3:15 the S fund has had a perfect bounce off its breakout point of 1009 ish and the I fund has bounced off its 50 DMA a little. This is a perfect scenario for a bounce to continue. Tomorrow will be interesting

"Man, I love it when a plan comes together!" (Where'd I get that phrase??)

This is why I don't trade on news events. It's too unpredictable. The charts told the perfect story and my system worked as expected. It's eerie that prices went to and bounced at the perfect spots.

We should now head to new highs. I'll be watching for the RSI's to get into overbought territory now (over 70).

 

[jkenjohnson]

"Man, I love it when a plan comes together!" (Where'd I get that phrase??)

This is why I don't trade on news events. It's too unpredictable. The charts told the perfect story and my system worked as expected. It's eerie that prices went to and bounced at the perfect spots.

We should now head to new highs. I'll be watching for the RSI's to get into overbought territory now (over 70).

That is one finely tuned crystal ball.

 

[Valkyrie]

"Man, I love it when a plan comes together!" (Where'd I get that phrase??)

This is why I don't trade on news events. It's too unpredictable. The charts told the perfect story and my system worked as expected. It's eerie that prices went to and bounced at the perfect spots.

We should now head to new highs. I'll be watching for the RSI's to get into overbought territory now (over 70).

The phrase is from the tv show
"The A-Team"

which your system seams to be a part of.

 

[clester]

The phrase is from the tv show
"The A-Team"

which your system seams to be a part of.

Yes. Thank you.

 

[clester]

I may have a choice to make. The rally in the S fund has taken us to 69+ on RSI and a 70 is a warning flag. The C and I funds are still well below it though. Such a big day should have follow through too. The next day or 2 could be the trigger.