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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
I thought I would share may outlook for the year. I think we'll be in a trading range until October and then a big 4th quarter rally into next year. That should give some opportunities to play the ranges.
I think we will retest the highs and then have another pullback and then back down to test the lows keeping us in between the 50 and 200Dma area a lot.
Thats my thinking but I will play my system. I have a buy signal today and will stay in 100% until we break the 50DMA again. All 3 funds are in buy status so I may spread out the 100%.
I think we will retest the highs and then have another pullback and then back down to test the lows keeping us in between the 50 and 200Dma area a lot.
Thats my thinking but I will play my system. I have a buy signal today and will stay in 100% until we break the 50DMA again. All 3 funds are in buy status so I may spread out the 100%.
clester
Well-known member
Going 50% I 50% S.
I'm expecting a test of the highs. So depending on the fund about 2% up from here and then who knows (I really think we won't make a new high). If we fail to make a new high I would expect another big pull back. So this may be short term. I would like a retest of the 50 DMA and a bounce to new highs. If we go below the 50 DMA it could be trouble.
clester
Well-known member
Looks like we will get that test of the 50DMA today looking at the futures. A test and a bounce would be ideal but if we don't I may be forced to sell again.
I expect a test of the highs before a pullback begins. The RSI's have plenty of room on the upside too. Maybe New York will get the snow storm too? I wonder what will happen if they do?
clester
Well-known member
The test of the 50DMA was perfect on the S&P500. We are now ready for the big test. Will we make new highs? If we fail then we could have another big drop caused by a double top. All the stock fund RSI's indicators are about 60 (over 70 is a sell) which indicate more room to the upside which is a positive.
clester
Well-known member
The S fund has been up for 7 straight days. That doesn't happen often. The S&P only had 1 small down day. Also, we are nearing the old highs. I would like to see a down day to two before we get there just to catch our breath for a run higher. If we test the highs today I would expect at least a 2 day reversal. But, nothing my system uses is showing any cautionary signs yet. We could get at least 2% higher before the RSI indicator gives a signal. Be patient if we have a short pull back now but beware the double top.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Thanks
clester
Well-known member
We tested or got near the highs yesterday so I still expect a 2 day reversal pattern ( a common pattern inside trends) and then a bounce. If we don't bounce then, we could be in for another big drop. We don't need a big 2 day reversal just a short profit taking one before we can make new highs. With only 2 trades a month its too hard to play those patterns, so I'll just wait it out for now.
jkenjohnson
Active member
JTH
Well-known member
Clester, in TSPTalk's timespan, you've been contributing to this forum since most of us were in diapers, it's nice to see some of the forum elders still stick around and help folks out, thank you.
clester
Well-known member
Thanks for the compliment. I have been here since Oct 2004? Wow time flies!
In that time I've had some ups and some downs. I have been so upset with myself and my lack of making good trades that I had to take some time away. That usually ended up hurting my account. I've tried following others recommendations or systems. I've tried my own. I've listened to talking heads and made decisions based on them or on what I thought should happen based on news events. I have tried it all it seems.
So, thats why I try to tell folks not to make those same bad decisions. I've learned from the school of hard knocks. I remember being so upset when I my account would go down that I would try to force the opportunities to make it back. It was like a gambling problem. I would lose sleep worrying.
I've finally gotten to a place I can live with and make trades when they arise and not try and out think the market. It will frustrate you because its not logical most of the time.
Anyway, I hope others can learn from my mistakes. Each person is different and needs their own strategy. Don't try to get rich quick. Its a long term process.
clester
Well-known member
Day one in the books. Need reversal tomorrow or friday.
Whipsaw
Well-known member
As we are moving down at this point, is the above mentioned reversal back up?
clester
Well-known member
We got the bounce but we still need to make new highs to get past resistance there.
clester
Well-known member
We reversed the reversal. I think we can now get those new highs. Expected pause at resistance which is the highs and we should now resume uptrend
JTH
Well-known member
You know what they say, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a dog. That's been my biggest problem with this setup, it simply looked too good to be true.
BichonFreeze
Member
clester
Well-known member
Trying to guess market reaction to any news is very difficult. Fed, earnings, geopolitical etc.
That's why I don't play that game. Believe me I've tried. And lost most of the time.
MaStA
Member
Heck I was skeptical for the last half of 2013 and you know what that got me? A lost chance to make money. I was waiting and waiting for a pullback that never happened. I'm hoping I can ride this month out invested so I have both IFTs in March to use to get out and back in if need be.
