clester's Account Talk

[clester]

The downtrend continues but I don't have a sell signal yet. Down days have been mild. Could just be some consolidation before the next run.

A little longer term, I think a bigger correction is coming this spring starting say in mid April to June. No specific reason. It just seem like it time. So, after this next run up I plan on getting out. I hope we have one more rally to go.

 

[clester]

I fund finally flashing a sell. we'll see tomorrow but I expect to sell it tomorrow. The other funds may need to test the 50DMA. They are still a buy until then. F fund is also a buy. I may move my I fund to F fund.

 

[clester]

I think the I fund owes us about .6% again. Hope we get that back tomorrow.

 

[clester]

The I fund has indeed finally given the sell signal. I feel like it will bounce soon but my system says sell. The other funds are in a short term downtrend but still in buy territory. The F fund is still in uptrend and in a Bull market. So, it looks like I'll be moving the I fund to the F fund. This is the logical move for my account but it feels bad. It's that old feeling I used to get that as soon as I sell it will bounce. But, thats why I came up with the system. I will follow it. If the C or S fund has a good test of the 50dma and bounces I will go back in there.

 

[Boricua]

I fund question

Hello Clester,

New to all of this, so, I have a question. Your are saying the I fund has given a"sell" signal and Ravensfan is saying the I fund is giving a buy signal; now I know there are different opinions involved in all this, but are you all interpreting the data differently or are you looking at different data?

Thanks,

B

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: I fund question

Hello Clester,

New to all of this, so, I have a question. Your are saying the I fund has given a"sell" signal and Ravensfan is saying the I fund is giving a buy signal; now I know there are different opinions involved in all this, but are you all interpreting the data differently or are you looking at different data?

Thanks,

B

Yes

 

[userque]

Re: I fund question

Hello Clester,

New to all of this, so, I have a question. Your are saying the I fund has given a"sell" signal and Ravensfan is saying the I fund is giving a buy signal; now I know there are different opinions involved in all this, but are you all interpreting the data differently or are you looking at different data?

Thanks,

B

Yes.



sorry...couldn't resist jumping in right there.

 

[userque]

RMI beat me to it.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

Hello Clester,

New to all of this, so, I have a question. Your are saying the I fund has given a"sell" signal and Ravensfan is saying the I fund is giving a buy signal; now I know there are different opinions involved in all this, but are you all interpreting the data differently or are you looking at different data?

Thanks,

B

I don't know others systems so I can't give you a ravensfan's reason. But, I have a sell signal on a 1.5% or more down day (although this has been wrong lately) and a break of the 50DMA is also a warning. If I were out I might play for a bounce here at the 50DMA after a bounce but for me a good buy signal is the RSI below 30.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

I wouldn't be surprised with a bounce today. Its friday and the shorts have had a good week. They may be worried of good news this week end like others are worried about bad news. So, shorts locking in gains wouldn't be a huge surprise.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

I wouldn't be surprised with a bounce today. Its friday and the shorts have had a good week. They may be worried of good news this week end like others are worried about bad news. So, shorts locking in gains wouldn't be a huge surprise.

Just to be clear my allocation is now 50% S 50% F

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

Just to be clear my allocation is now 50% S 50% F

Now I'm questioning the F fund. I have been taking a good look at the S fund chart and it actually looks pretty good. We bounced at the last low around 1009 ($emw) yesterday and we are still in bull market (50dma is above the 200dma) and price is above the 50dma. This is a buy scenario. My system calls for me to be 100% in in this case. The I fund is definitely out though. I really don't like being in the F or I funds anyway.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

Now I'm questioning the F fund. I have been taking a good look at the S fund chart and it actually looks pretty good. We bounced at the last low around 1009 ($emw) yesterday and we are still in bull market (50dma is above the 200dma) and price is above the 50dma. This is a buy scenario. My system calls for me to be 100% in in this case. The I fund is definitely out though. I really don't like being in the F or I funds anyway.

So I changed my allocation after further review and went 100% S. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: I fund question

So I changed my allocation after further review and went 100% S. Sorry for the confusion.

So that's why the "S" Fund is in positive territory so far.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

With all the doom and gloom last week we didn't even hit the 50 dma. Thats bullish. Only the I fund is in a little trouble. No sell signals on the C or S funds and I would expect this week to regain what we lost last week. The S&P will go to 1900 before we have a big pullback IMO. Its like a magnet. But... a bigger sell off is coming. I'm looking at mid April for that to start but I'm playing my system.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

With all the doom and gloom last week we didn't even hit the 50 dma. Thats bullish. Only the I fund is in a little trouble. No sell signals on the C or S funds and I would expect this week to regain what we lost last week. The S&P will go to 1900 before we have a big pullback IMO. Its like a magnet. But... a bigger sell off is coming. I'm looking at mid April for that to start but I'm playing my system.

The bounce has started. We need to continue up to 1900 on S&P on this rally or at least make a new high or we could be in for some trouble. IMO, we will get to that 1900 level. The bounce should continue this week. My system is still on 100% stocks until we hit a RSI of 70 or go below the 50 dma.

 

[GUCHI]

Re: I fund question

clester
i was surprised to see you leave the I fund? i know you have held it for awhile. i have held it a longgggggg time and continue to buy every 2 weeks. im gonna hold and wait for my train to come and take me up to new heights. good luck to you.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

clester
i was surprised to see you leave the I fund? i know you have held it for awhile. i have held it a longgggggg time and continue to buy every 2 weeks. im gonna hold and wait for my train to come and take me up to new heights. good luck to you.

The main reason was the drop below the 200 dma. It is also under performing the other stock funds.

Also, I don't like the "fair valuation" system. It just makes it very hard to analyze and predict.

 

[GUCHI]

Re: I fund question

agreed that FV thingy really sucks, but i will wait it out i have no where to go hopefully in the next 7 years or so. maybe it will be there by then.

The main reason was the drop below the 200 dma. It is also under performing the other stock funds.

Also, I don't like the "fair valuation" system. It just makes it very hard to analyze and predict.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

agreed that FV thingy really sucks, but i will wait it out i have no where to go hopefully in the next 7 years or so. maybe it will be there by then.

Its bounced back nicely and looking good. EU should perform well in the coming years.