clester's Account Talk

[clester]

Re: I fund question

The bounce has started. We need to continue up to 1900 on S&P on this rally or at least make a new high or we could be in for some trouble. IMO, we will get to that 1900 level. The bounce should continue this week. My system is still on 100% stocks until we hit a RSI of 70 or go below the 50 dma.

Looking good so far. We could get that 1900 this week! If so, I may take 50% off the table but that would be against my system.

My outlook is for a near term top in mid April and then a summer pull back before a big 4th quarter rally.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

Looking good so far. We could get that 1900 this week! If so, I may take 50% off the table but that would be against my system.

My outlook is for a near term top in mid April and then a summer pull back before a big 4th quarter rally.

So far the crystal ball is working well. We are about 1% from a new high. We should get that this week.

My outlook: I will be looking to play another small pull back next week and then back up in April for the last rally before a larger pull back starts and lasts thorough the summer. That last rally next month should get us to an oversold RSI. JMHO of course.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

Yesterday's drama made no changes to my system.

I'm still expecting a rally to new heights through mid April.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

The 1009 level on the S fund ($EMW) is critical IMO. It has been support 3 previous times. The 50 DMA is not far from there either. I still think we have 1 more run before a pull back but a break of the 50 dma would be a red flag.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

The 1009 level on the S fund ($EMW) is critical IMO. It has been support 3 previous times. The 50 DMA is not far from there either. I still think we have 1 more run before a pull back but a break of the 50 dma would be a red flag.

When we have these morning drops we usually climb slowly back up the rest of the day. Will buyers come in? Yes, I think so.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

When we have these morning drops we usually climb slowly back up the rest of the day. Will buyers come in? Yes, I think so.

We had some buying come in and we held the critical levels. Now, between now and April 15 we will make a new high imo. Then we drop through the summer. That's why my crystal ball says anyway.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: I fund question

We had some buying come in and we held the critical levels. Now, between now and April 15 we will make a new high imo. Then we drop through the summer. That's why my crystal ball says anyway.

Keep that ball really clean so you can read it correctly. I'm back in.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

Keep that ball really clean so you can read it correctly. I'm back in.

I polish it every day

I see 1900 before the spring - summer fade.

 

[bmneveu]

Re: I fund question

I see 1900 before the spring - summer fade.

That would coincide with historic seasonality. Sounds good to me!

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: I fund question

The 1009 level on the S fund ($EMW) is critical IMO. It has been support 3 previous times. The 50 DMA is not far from there either. I still think we have 1 more run before a pull back but a break of the 50 dma would be a red flag.

That is exactly what I am hedging on...I hope we are both right!

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

That is exactly what I am hedging on...I hope we are both right!

1009 held again on $ emw. Let's hope this is the last time and we go back up.

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

1009 held again on $ emw. Let's hope this is the last time and we go back up.

Not much happening today. Good news is that the downtrend on S fund seems to have stopped and is basing. The C and S fund are both still in Bull markets being above the 50 dma and the 50 dma above the 200 dma. So, my system is still on a buy.

Patience is what is required now. Let the market tell you which way to go. Don't try to guess. 1009 is still a good place to watch (and the 50 dma) on the downside. I still think we go to 1900 on S&P on the upside which is about 2% up from here

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

Not much happening today. Good news is that the downtrend on S fund seems to have stopped and is basing. The C and S fund are both still in Bull markets being above the 50 dma and the 50 dma above the 200 dma. So, my system is still on a buy.

Patience is what is required now. Let the market tell you which way to go. Don't try to guess. 1009 is still a good place to watch (and the 50 dma) on the downside. I still think we go to 1900 on S&P on the upside which is about 2% up from here

Well...

Broke the 1009 level and the 50 dma today. So, I have a sell signal. When a moving average is broke it usually goes through it a bit. If no bounce tomorrow I will probably sell 50%.

But....This has been a buying opportunity in the past.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: I fund question

Well...

Broke the 1009 level and the 50 dma today. So, I have a sell signal. When a moving average is broke it usually goes through it a bit. If no bounce tomorrow I will probably sell 50%.

But....This has been a buying opportunity in the past.

The ball must have had a smudge on it yesterday.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: I fund question

The ball must have had a smudge on it yesterday.

With this market, you may not know if you get a bounce until COB.

 

[Whipsaw]

Re: I fund question

I jumped in yesterday, 80% S, hopefully we'll get a bounce today and that S&P climb to 1900 Clester's been talking about. BT's article about the 64 mo. timeframe from bottom to top was pretty interesting...

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: I fund question

I jumped in yesterday, 80% S, hopefully we'll get a bounce today and that S&P climb to 1900 Clester's been talking about. BT's article about the 64 mo. timeframe from bottom to top was pretty interesting...

I hope so too, but I think someone else said it best "I think the S fund is getting tired".

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

I hope so too, but I think someone else said it best "I think the S fund is getting tired".

The S fund is the best performer and is the leader too. Its more volatile than the C fund. So, any big moves will hit the S fund first. It has been lagging the C fund of late which is a problem.

However, today looks more normal with the S fund beating the C and had a nice turnaround after the flush finished this morning.

I like to look at the market from the standpoint of: If I were out would I buy now. The answer is yes.

I look for good ounce areas based on the moving averages or the RSI and a perfect one would be when both are giving buys. Also, it often happens that when a moving average gets busted the price goes through it as we did this time on the S fund. I also wait for a bounce to start so Im not guessing too much. Well we have that too today.

SO, I'm still positive for the next few weeks and staying in. The RSI on the S fund got to 69.5 or so. I guess that was close enough for the sell but I waited for a 70 print.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: I fund question

The S fund is the best performer and is the leader too. Its more volatile than the C fund. So, any big moves will hit the S fund first. It has been lagging the C fund of late which is a problem.

However, today looks more normal with the S fund beating the C and had a nice turnaround after the flush finished this morning.

I like to look at the market from the standpoint of: If I were out would I buy now. The answer is yes.

I look for good ounce areas based on the moving averages or the RSI and a perfect one would be when both are giving buys. Also, it often happens that when a moving average gets busted the price goes through it as we did this time on the S fund. I also wait for a bounce to start so Im not guessing too much. Well we have that too today.

SO, I'm still positive for the next few weeks and staying in. The RSI on the S fund got to 69.5 or so. I guess that was close enough for the sell but I waited for a 70 print.

You're not selling 50% today?

 

[clester]

Re: I fund question

You're not selling 50% today?

Well, I wasn't but since the bounce failed...I am. 50% C 50% G