clester's Account Talk

[nnuut]

The GDP was better than expected but still down and continuing down, this appears to be a Bull Trap to me. Draghi said something, how many times this year did someone in Europe say something and the markets reacted but nothing really happened? BEWARE!

 

[polarbear]

It will be interesting when it comes time for them to put their money where their mouth is.

OK, regarding the Fed, Yahoo Finance says "...and stimulus hopes". OK, I guess because of unemployment?
Bernanke cares about the hopeless situation of unemployment theoretically because if employed the consumers will consume more. He knows the unemployment situation combined with housing in the dumps means a slow, very slow recovery if a recovery at all and nothing he does will affect it. He knows this. If he acts, it will be because Schumer and Obamastan have ordered him to. Whatta crock.

 

[clester]

Got in Wedenesday night and out today with a 3%+ gain, unless the market tanks this afternoon.

Niice

 

[polarbear]

My mistake. Merkel and Hollande made remarks today stating that they are deeply committed to preserving the euro.

 

[clester]

My mistake. Merkel and Hollande made remarks today stating that they are deeply committed to preserving the euro.

Yeah. Really? Does any think they would say anything else? If the did the would be panic in the streets. Not worthy of a 3% gain in stocks. Must have been weak shorts.

 

[clester]

Well, I'm waiting on Wednesday for a possible move. Fed is Wednesday afternoon and jobs Friday. Who know which way those will go.

For my indicators, all signs point to down in stocks and up in bonds. S fund is at the top of the downtrend, C fund is at the top of a uptrend but they are both still over 50 and 200 dma. $tnx and $tyx are testing their 50 dma from the bottom. Volitility is a negative. RSI's are neutral.

So, right now if I could trade I would be in F fund. Let's see how the week plays out.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Well, I'm waiting on Wednesday for a possible move. Fed is Wednesday afternoon and jobs Friday. Who know which way those will go.

For my indicators, all signs point to down in stocks and up in bonds. S fund is at the top of the downtrend, C fund is at the top of a uptrend but they are both still over 50 and 200 dma. $tnx and $tyx are testing their 50 dma from the bottom. Volitility is a negative. RSI's are neutral.

So, right now if I could trade I would be in F fund. Let's see how the week plays out.

How are you going to play it? Get in Tuesday night hoping that Bernanke will say something positive? Or wait until after Bernanke speaks and assuming it is positive, get in on Wednesday night after a market climb? It's like a crap shoot!

 

[clester]

How are you going to play it? Get in Tuesday night hoping that Bernanke will say something positive? Or wait until after Bernanke speaks and assuming it is positive, get in on Wednesday night after a market climb? It's like a crap shoot!

You can't guess the market reaction. It's either buy F Wednesday morning or wait for the dust to settle and wait til after jobs report.

It feels like all the pre buying of stocks is over. So, I would guess "sell the news" or disappointment and selling.

Not even considering the news, my system is on a buy for F fund, sell S, and C is neutral. Efa has a big gap lower to fill.

So for me, the F fund is the play Wednesday. If it goes against me and stocks go up I can still swap over to stocks.

 

[jkenjohnson]

You can't guess the market reaction. It's either buy F Wednesday morning or wait for the dust to settle and wait til after jobs report.

It feels like all the pre buying of stocks is over. So, I would guess "sell the news" or disappointment and selling.

Not even considering the news, my system is on a buy for F fund, sell S, and C is neutral. Efa has a big gap lower to fill.

So for me, the F fund is the play Wednesday. If it goes against me and stocks go up I can still swap over to stocks.

Sounds like a pretty good plan. The market is overbought and seems like it is floundering around today and waiting to see if ECB or Barnanke will say something.

 

[clester]

I was hoping the bonds would sell off a little more before I get in but they have rebounded pretty well the last 2 days. Bond yields down again today. Will the 10 year break the last low around 1.39% ? That would mean really bad news coming.

Bonds probably won't sell off much in any case because the fed is buying and most investors are sick of the stock market so they are buying bonds according to many articles I read.

So, bonds (F fund) seem pretty safe for now. Stocks have been awful quiet the last 2 days after the huge pop last week. Is it topping? Well, my analysis points to that but we'll see.

 

[bighog]

Well, I'm waiting on Wednesday for a possible move. Fed is Wednesday afternoon and jobs Friday. Who know which way those will go.

For my indicators, all signs point to down in stocks and up in bonds. S fund is at the top of the downtrend, C fund is at the top of a uptrend but they are both still over 50 and 200 dma. $tnx and $tyx are testing their 50 dma from the bottom. Volitility is a negative. RSI's are neutral.

So, right now if I could trade I would be in F fund. Let's see how the week plays out.

Clester, a couple of dumb questions from a new guy. Do you mean all in 100% F fund, if you could? I assume by trading you mean interfund transfer? if this is the case, how do you set your contribution allocation? Mine is currently at 50% G and 50 F. My account distribution at the moment is 75% G 25% F. I have teh ability to do a transfer. Any advice is appreciated.

BH

 

[clester]

Clester, a couple of dumb questions from a new guy. Do you mean all in 100% F fund, if you could? I assume by trading you mean interfund transfer? if this is the case, how do you set your contribution allocation? Mine is currently at 50% G and 50 F. My account distribution at the moment is 75% G 25% F. I have teh ability to do a transfer. Any advice is appreciated.

BH

Well, first of all I'm retired so I don't contribute anymore. My f fund allocation would go 100%. Since I'm retired I am probably a little more conservative than a new person should be. Personally, I used to leave my contributions the same and then when I make a move it gets moved too. So, if you trade a few times a month the contributions don't really matter. I had my allocations all going into stocks 1/3 each. It's the buy some high some low or "dollar cost averaging idea"

 

[bighog]

Thank you, sir.

 

[clester]

Thank you, sir.

Let me give you advice. Don't follow me or any other person without thinking things through and coming to your own conclusions. I can tell you from experience that doing that can cause you all kinds of grief.

Trust your instincts without letting you emotions play into it. You know more than you think even if your just starting out.

 

[bighog]

I am certain, that is probably the best piece of advice I will get. Thanks again.

 

[clester]

A day or 2 of gains. Maybe get up to 1380-1390 then head back down if the pattern on the S&P continues. If we don't get there then then it could get ugly.

If the F fund would come down some I would look at that. I am out of trades till next week, so it's just watching for now.

So far things have played out according to my crystal ball. Maybe we go to 1340 or so to conitnue pattern. If we break the 50 dma it could get ugly. I expect some wild volatility through Friday.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

So far things have played out according to my crystal ball. Maybe we go to 1340 or so to conitnue pattern. If we break the 50 dma it could get ugly. I expect some wild volatility through Friday.

Still leaning F? I have two IFT's in my pocket!

 

[jkenjohnson]

So far things have played out according to my crystal ball. Maybe we go to 1340 or so to conitnue pattern. If we break the 50 dma it could get ugly. I expect some wild volatility through Friday.

Unless Bennie says something good tomorrow, things could get ugly this week.

 

[clester]

Unless Bennie says something good tomorrow, things could get ugly this week.

Ben, ECB, jobs oh my!

 

[clester]

Still leaning F? I have two IFT's in my pocket!

Yeah, but it came back too fast. I would have like a little more of a pullback but it still looks good short term. Better than the rest.