clester's Account Talk

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jkenjohnson said:
Ok you were right on the ECB. What happens next?
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A day or 2 of gains. Maybe get up to 1380-1390 then head back down if the pattern on the S&P continues. If we don't get there then then it could get ugly.

If the F fund would come down some I would look at that. I am out of trades till next week, so it's just watching for now.
 
clester said:
A day or 2 of gains. Maybe get up to 1380-1390 then head back down if the pattern on the S&P continues. If we don't get there then then it could get ugly.

If the F fund would come down some I would look at that. I am out of trades till next week, so it's just watching for now.
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If you are correct that is two for two and I want one of your Crystal Balls. :D
 
clester said:
If I was so good, I would be at the top of the tracker :)

Maybe, if I listened to myself more? The exact timing is my problem. I'm usually off a day or 2
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I was in the top 50 (I think) one time at the beginning of the year and have been on a downslide until recently.
 
You are just a bit ore optimistic than I am. We may break 1300, but I totally agree on it going back down. By the way I am new to this forum and just your average Joe. I have absolutely zero formal education, when it comes to economics. I also agree with your statement on G funds. No money but I am parking it there to preserve what I have. I am however currently sitting at 75% G and 25% F. I am considering and will probably go 100% G. How about this as a crazy strategy. Park in G funds, watch the Eurozone fall apart and money rush to the US as perceived safe haven. Now if the US is indeed two years behind Europe as far as an economic disaster, once they are at their bottom as best you can tell, move to the I fund.
 
Like they say on Wall Street - don't fight the Fed. The same is true for Europe - don't fight the ECB. These statements are based simply on history. Somewhere on my thread a couple weeks back I posted an article with graphs on the euro and potential rebound.
 
Birchtree said:
Like they say on Wall Street - don't fight the Fed. The same is true for Europe - don't fight the ECB. These statements are based simply on history. Somewhere on my thread a couple weeks back I posted an article with graphs on the euro and potential rebound.
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I hear you. But it appears to me that the time between the talk/action of the Fed/ECB and the time the impact wears off, is getting shorter and shorter. I just don't see a sustained rally in the I fund, anytime soon. But then again, what do I know.
 
If the market is truly a discounting mechanism for the future the best gains are made early in any new bull leg.
 
The I fund has gaps to fill below before it's off to the races. The I fund is pretty consistent in filling gaps. It may take a few weeks but they will get filled.
 
clester said:
The I fund has gaps to fill below before it's off to the races. The I fund is pretty consistent in filling gaps. It may take a few weeks but they will get filled.
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Also, F fund is finally coming off like I thought it would. But, this is a buying opportunity when its selloff is over. Maybe by Aug 1.
 
Yeah, the time to get out of the F fund was yesterday like I did or, better yet, day before. Thanks for your advice about buying back in. I will keep my eyes open. There's no tellin' what will come out of Europe on a day-by-day basis. That place has become a kind of Wild West.
 
ILoveTDs said:
Interesting I was just thinking COB Aug 1 100% F Fund
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The s&p should come back down next week. It's at the top of the channel. Two huge up days too. Seems to fast. Again a rule I have is to be out in high volatility. For me that's s&p moves over 20 or maybe 22 points. So I would be getting out today.

Crazy times.
 
Good call on 1380 to 1390. Not sure what i was thinking when I replied earlier. I still don't understand with all teh bad news, that market fires off on hopes. I have a lot to learn.
 
clester said:
The s&p should come back down next week. It's at the top of the channel. Two huge up days too. Seems to fast. Again a rule I have is to be out in high volatility. For me that's s&p moves over 20 or maybe 22 points. So I would be getting out today.

Crazy times.
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Got in Wedenesday night and out today with a 3%+ gain, unless the market tanks this afternoon.
 
Good for you! The IFT situation is perverse. One has to deal with it the best one can. As for Draghi and the last two days, I am dumbfounded how it has all played out. A white swan event for some, a black swan event for the IFT-limited. But what was amazing is that with the fireworks yesterday, for the bond market (F fund) it was like Wiley Coyote standing frozen in mid-air and chilling. And looking at the air space under its feet today and plunging downward while the market not only repeated its rise of yesterday but practically doubled it. Any thought now of Bernanke juicing the market after Draghi has done it for him is less believable than it was to start with.

One thing here for me is that the F Fund is not a low-risk fund, it is a medium-risk fund. One other thing, maybe the better-than-expected GDP number was the catalyst today. Whatever, this eliminates my rolling-top idea, only a rolling-half-top.
 
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