clester's Account Talk

[clester]

A couple of things. First, the $EMW is about to go into bear market territory as the 50 dma is about to go under the 200dma and the price is below both at the moment. Efa is in bear market already.

Second, S&P and nasdaq are still in uptrend and above both averages. Agg is topping. Sentiment is very negative.

So, things are mixed right now. The only options for my system are C fund. And G fund. G fund is dead money making almost nothing but at least you won't lose money.

We are at a crucial point in my opinion. Which way will we go.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

A couple of things. First, the $EMW is about to go into bear market territory as the 50 dma is about to go under the 200dma and the price is below both at the moment. Efa is in bear market already.

Second, S&P and nasdaq are still in uptrend and above both averages. Agg is topping. Sentiment is very negative.

So, things are mixed right now. The only options for my system are C fund. And G fund. G fund is dead money making almost nothing but at least you won't lose money.

We are at a crucial point in my opinion. Which way will we go.

Couldn't agree more! The G fund is pitiful but not loving the SP chart right now either. I am strongly considering a move into the G fund today.

 

[clester]

Couldn't agree more! The G fund is pitiful but not loving the SP chart right now either. I am strongly considering a move into the G fund today.

I am worried about apple earnings too.

 

[clester]

I may be too early but the risk mounting. Stop loss at 1332 so I'm getting out above that.

 

[clester]

I may be too early but the risk mounting. Stop loss at 1332 so I'm getting out above that.

Btw, I expect to be back in early next month. A rally is coming.

 

[Mcqlives]

Btw, I expect to be back in early next month. A rally is coming.

I just wait it hopes for the 1st. Come on TSP board...just one more move a month...pretty please!?!?!?!?!

 

[ATCHUNTman]

Btw, I expect to be back in early next month. A rally is coming.

I went in the G also. I agree a rally is coming. I'm out of IFT's for this month.

 

[clester]

I may be too early but the risk mounting. Stop loss at 1332 so I'm getting out above that.

Well, like I said, I was early. We had a good test of the 50 and bonds are coming off some. However, I still don't have that feeling that this is the rally. But if it's not now, it is coming soon. I have a week to wait and watch. I think it will be a choppy week.

On apple, I have a feeling their best days are behind them. They are banking on a huge 4th quarter and they may get it but it will be down hill from there. Or at least sideways.

 

[clester]

Feeling better about getting out now. Maybe Efa will fill the lower gap and then head back up to fill other gaps.

S fund looking very weak and now in bear market. Agg is topping.

There will be some catalyst soon to spark another relief rally. Maybe it will wait til next week?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Feeling better about getting out now. Maybe Efa will fill the lower gap and then head back up to fill other gaps.

S fund looking very weak and now in bear market. Agg is topping.

There will be some catalyst soon to spark another relief rally. Maybe it will wait til next week?

What do you think the catalyst will be? I can't come up with anything other than jobless claims or consumer sentiment - both due this week. However, I don't think it will be great news???

 

[Birchtree]

The Fed is ready to open the window and central banks from around the world will eat. I read somewhere that the Japanese Central Bank has been buying equities - now wouldn't that be a sweet surprise if Ben wants some SPX.

 

[clester]

What do you think the catalyst will be? I can't come up with anything other than jobless claims or consumer sentiment - both due this week. However, I don't think it will be great news???

Don't know. Maybe the Fed or ECB?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Don't know. Maybe the Fed or ECB?

Yeah. I didn't think about that.

 

[clester]

Don't know. Maybe the Fed or ECB?

There you go Ken. ECB to the rescue. Drahgi promises to save the euro. Duh. What else would he say?

But this will fade IMO just like the rest of the EU rescues. I'm not feeling the huge rally will hold.

 

[jkenjohnson]

There you go Ken. ECB to the rescue. Drahgi promises to save the euro. Duh. What else would he say?

But this will fade IMO just like the rest of the EU rescues. I'm not feeling the huge rally will hold.

I thought about getting in Tuesday when the market tanked. Chickened out. Jobless claims are down today. If housing and consumer sentiment are good we could see a little rally.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

I agree with you Clester. Ben will probably join the parade too.

 

[jkenjohnson]

As long as market trading is based on news, it becomes very difficult for me to make decisions as when to enter and exit. I know I should just follow the system, but it only works when the market is trading on fundamentals. Maybe we should just stay out until all the doom and gloom has ended.

 

[clester]

I thought about getting in Tuesday when the market tanked. Chickened out. Jobless claims are down today. If housing and consumer sentiment are good we could see a little rally.

These are reasons for "no" QE which should hurt the market.

A couple of things. First the bonds aren't selling off like they should for a huge rally. In other words, the bind market isn't buying this rally. The $emw looks bad. It's testing the moving averages from the bottom. The 50 crossed below the 200. It's a sell. Second, the Efa has gaps all over. It has no idea what it wants to do but it's also in bear market territory.

The S&P is the only chart that looks okay. It successfully bounced off the 50 dma and made a higher low. It needs to get above 1380 on this move to keep that intact.

I don't know if today's rally will hold but it doesn't look that good to me. The last few time this happened, it lasted 2 more days and then sold off. I got a feeling this one won't last that long. It may not last the day.

 

[jkenjohnson]

These are reasons for "no" QE which should hurt the market.

A couple of things. First the bonds aren't selling off like they should for a huge rally. In other words, the bind market isn't buying this rally. The $emw looks bad. It's testing the moving averages from the bottom. The 50 crossed below the 200. It's a sell. Second, the Efa has gaps all over. It has no idea what it wants to do but it's also in bear market territory.

The S&P is the only chart that looks okay. It successfully bounced off the 50 dma and made a higher low. It needs to get above 1380 on this move to keep that intact.

I don't know if today's rally will hold but it doesn't look that good to me. The last few time this happened, it lasted 2 more days and then sold off. I got a feeling this one won't last that long. It may not last the day.

Market has retreated some already.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Ok you were right on the ECB. What happens next?