clester's Account Talk

[jkenjohnson]

So far things have played out according to my crystal ball. Maybe we go to 1340 or so to conitnue pattern. If we break the 50 dma it could get ugly. I expect some wild volatility through Friday.

Look into your crystal ball and tell us if the week will end down or up?

 

[clester]

Look into your crystal ball and tell us if the week will end down or up?

My guess would be down from here at the moment. That's based on charts, indicators and sentiment info I use. The news driven market is too crazy to guess. Could be wild swings tomorrow. I think it's all about Europe still and the EFA has a big gap lower to fill. Maybe this week? EFA almost always fills its gaps. Not always immediately but within a month or so.

 

[clester]

Agg is down this morning which means I can buy at a better price if I decide to jump in. Of course, it will be a long day with the fed coming up at 2pm.

 

[clester]

Agg is down this morning which means I can buy at a better price if I decide to jump in. Of course, it will be a long day with the fed coming up at 2pm.

Just thinking out loud. I wonder if the ADP numbers being better than expected foretell no fed action or QE. I say this because bonds are down and stock have come off as well. Which makes sense if you think the fed won't being buying more bonds then that's a sell for bonds and stocks want more QE which they may not get now.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Just thinking out loud. I wonder if the ADP numbers being better than expected foretell no fed action or QE. I say this because bonds are down and stock have come off as well. Which makes sense if you think the fed won't being buying more bonds then that's a sell for bonds and stocks want more QE which they may not get now.

I tend to agree.

 

[clester]

Well, I have decided that because of the expected wild volatility I expect through Friday that I will sit in G fund until its over. One of my rules is to be out during high volatility and I will follow that. The F fund could get volatile too. Also, the chart suggest that it could come down another 0.3 % or so. I am trying to tweak my timing.

 

[ATCHUNTman]

Well, I have decided that because of the expected wild volatility I expect through Friday that I will sit in G fund until its over. One of my rules is to be out during high volatility and I will follow that. The F fund could get volatile too. Also, the chart suggest that it could come down another 0.3 % or so. I am trying to tweak my timing.

I stayed G myself...waiting to see what the fed says.

 

[polarbear]

To Clester and ATCHUNTman and anybody else: It looks like it just did that. Funny, the chart in Yahoo Finance shows -0.275% while the headline reads -0.08% referring to previous close supposedly 112.36 with now reading 112.28, but historical table shows previous close (actual or adjusted) as 112.59. Something is wrong there. We're back to eod Friday on the chart. I think this needs to be watched for a few days to determine what's going on. F fund is back to being volatile as Clester wrote. Sitting in the G fund over here too. May the force be with us.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Well, I have decided that because of the expected wild volatility I expect through Friday that I will sit in G fund until its over. One of my rules is to be out during high volatility and I will follow that. The F fund could get volatile too. Also, the chart suggest that it could come down another 0.3 % or so. I am trying to tweak my timing.

Anyone thinking about buying any TZA prior to 2:15 pm?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Hmmm. No big sell off. Maybe it was already factored in?

 

[bmneveu]

Wow, big sell-off for small caps in the last hour. Good call!

Edit -- it looked like the R2K lost another 1% in the last half hour or so, after it was already trading down 1%~ most of the afternoon.

 

[clester]

Looking for a gap up or down this morning with the ECB news. Best scenario would be a gap down on EFA to fill its gap and then it can work higher IMO. It's all about Europe still.

I really don't know what to expect but if there is a gap then the play is probably opposite to that.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Looking for a gap up or down this morning with the ECB news. Best scenario would be a gap down on EFA to fill its gap and then it can work higher IMO. It's all about Europe still.

I really don't know what to expect but if there is a gap then the play is probably opposite to that.

If we gap up, I'm definitely buying some TZA.

 

[clester]

My guess would be down from here at the moment. That's based on charts, indicators and sentiment info I use. The news driven market is too crazy to guess. Could be wild swings tomorrow. I think it's all about Europe still and the EFA has a big gap lower to fill. Maybe this week? EFA almost always fills its gaps. Not always immediately but within a month or so.

There you go Ken. That crystal ball is working well.

If we can get to s&p 1340 or the 200 dma it might be a good entry point. Not sure about bonds yet. They may be good in the mean time. I was hoping for a little more sell off but I may not get it.

 

[clester]

Much less sell off than I would have expected. Very curious. Will we fall through the day? I would think we should be down 20 on s&p with the disappointment since we rallied so much into this.

 

[jkenjohnson]

There you go Ken. That crystal ball is working well.

If we can get to s&p 1340 or the 200 dma it might be a good entry point. Not sure about bonds yet. They may be good in the mean time. I was hoping for a little more sell off but I may not get it.

It's hard to trade in a buy or sell the news environment. Does the Crytal Ball say they we recover during the day?

 

[clester]

It's hard to trade in a buy or sell the news environment. Does the Crytal Ball say they we recover during the day?

Looks like we already did. We went opposite the initial reaction immediately. I still think we head lower though. Bonds need to sell off a little first.

 

[clester]

Looks like we already did. We went opposite the initial reaction immediately. I still think we head lower though. Bonds need to sell off a little first.

Well, lower again. So, my target for possible buy is 1340.

 

[clester]

Much less sell off than I would have expected. Very curious. Will we fall through the day? I would think we should be down 20 on s&p with the disappointment since we rallied so much into this.

We might get there.

 

[clester]

Efa needs a little more lower to finish filling its gap. About 48.20 should do it. Perhaps we can rally after that?