clester's Account Talk

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jkenjohnson said:
Clester,

What sayeth the crystal ball this morning?
Click to expand...
Hard to see much. Things are cloudy inside. Jobs number better but that means no QE.

Looks like F fund coming off some. It may be in range to buy if it gaps down big. Stocks will gap up to near the previous highs and I would expect Efa to gap up again also. It didn't quite fill its gap from before so that means it still needs to head down. S fund will still be in downtrend.

So, all on all, I expect this rally to fade.
 
My volitilaty rule is active again. Another more that 20 points on S&P. This market is to crazy and driven each day by the particular news of the day. We have had way too many of these huge swings although more have been on the up lately.

Again, my focus is mostly on europe and the EFA chart. 2 big gaps need to be filled.

So my choices are stay in G or move to F.
 
clester said:
My volitilaty rule is active again. Another more that 20 points on S&P. This market is to crazy and driven each day by the particular news of the day. We have had way too many of these huge swings although more have been on the up lately.

Again, my focus is mostly on europe and the EFA chart. 2 big gaps need to be filled.

So my choices are stay in G or move to F.
Click to expand...
F it is.
 
Tom used to post stats on jobs day surprises. I believe it was something about a surprise of 50,000 plus or minus. The initial reaction was reversed within a few days?

Something like that.

Tom, if you read this could you post that again?
 
The data was several years old, but you had it right. A move after a +/- 50,000 report was reversed within a few days. It seemed to accelerate in recent years, like some of the moves reversed by the close. It used to be you got a 2 to 3 day move before a reversal.
 
tsptalk said:
The data was several years old, but you had it right. A move after a +/- 50,000 report was reversed within a few days. It seemed to accelerate in recent years, like some of the moves reversed by the close. It used to be you got a 2 to 3 day move before a reversal.
Click to expand...
Thanks, it ill interesting to see what happens this time.
 
clester said:
Hard to see much. Things are cloudy inside. Jobs number better but that means no QE.

Looks like F fund coming off some. It may be in range to buy if it gaps down big. Stocks will gap up to near the previous highs and I would expect Efa to gap up again also. It didn't quite fill its gap from before so that means it still needs to head down. S fund will still be in downtrend.

So, all on all, I expect this rally to fade.
Click to expand...

Not sure ot's going to fade today. Everytime I look it has gone up more.
 
clester said:
Wow. Just looked at tracker. Lots of trades today and most were to G and F.
Click to expand...

I noticed that too. Mondays have been down days for several weeks in a row, so who knows what will happen next week. Had I been in today, I probably would have got out.
 
tsptalk said:
The data was several years old, but you had it right. A move after a +/- 50,000 report was reversed within a few days. It seemed to accelerate in recent years, like some of the moves reversed by the close. It used to be you got a 2 to 3 day move before a reversal.
Click to expand...

From an old post I found from 2005... (clester, you have been around a long time to remember this. :D)

tsptalk said:
Three days after a large surprise in the jobs report of 50,000 jobs, up or down, the S&P 500 was higher only 5 out of 18 times. Its average return was minus 0.5%. Markets don’t like surprises because they create uncertainty.

Ten days after a negative surprise of 50K jobs or more, the S&P was higher 55% of the time. Ten days after a positive surprise of 50K or more, it was lower 58% of the time.

Ninety days after a large negative surprise, the S&P showed an average return of +5.1%. Ninety days after a large positive surprise, its average return was 1.7%.

The correlation between surprises in the jobs number and 90-day returns in the S&P 500 has been -.32. This means that the more positive the surprise, the more negative the performance in the S&P and vice-versa. Given the sample size, this is significant.
Click to expand...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talks...erfund-transfer-6-02-6-03-05-a.html#post20871
 
Looks like F fund will start in the green as well as stocks. I think we will be fairly quiet this week and a slow retreat on stocks is in the cards. We are at the top of trend lines and 2 gaps that need filling on EFA. If we do go higher I think 1420 would be the max.

Governments in Europe are on vacation this month so light trading expected there as well. Things could always flair up there though.
 
clester said:
Looks like F fund will start in the green as well as stocks. I think we will be fairly quiet this week and a slow retreat on stocks is in the cards. We are at the top of trend lines and 2 gaps that need filling on EFA. If we do go higher I think 1420 would be the max.

Governments in Europe are on vacation this month so light trading expected there as well. Things could always flair up there though.
Click to expand...

Will this be the first postive close on a Monday in a lonnnnng time?
 
My technical anaylsis still shows stocks should retreat but my gut is telling me stocks will go up. I'm conflicted and have the urge to move into stocks. Seeing the high level of folks in F and G may be part of it. Also, if Europe stays quiet we may melt up on no news.
 
clester said:
My technical anaylsis still shows stocks should retreat but my gut is telling me stocks will go up. I'm conflicted and have the urge to move into stocks. Seeing the high level of folks in F and G may be part of it. Also, if Europe stays quiet we may melt up on no news.
Click to expand...

I like to buy low sell high, not buy high and sell higher - my two cents worth. There will be better moves later on.
 
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