I know. It's as if the TA is too obvious.
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
clester
Well-known member
These are the days that I need my system.
clester
Well-known member
Looks like pretty good resistance at 1410 and 1420 areas. So, even if we do continue to rally we are near the top IMO.
The market is still news driven and makes no sense to me. I will stick with my system. The 10 year just popped above the 50 dma which could mean trouble but agg and Bnd are in a nice uptrend and above 50 and 200 dma. They are also near the lower trend line and have gaps to fill higher. Efa has gaps to fill lower. S&p is above its upper trend line. $emw is still in sideways range bound area.
jkenjohnson
Active member
We better be at a top. I shorted the market just a few minutes ago.
jkenjohnson
Active member
This flatline movement is getting boring.
MaStA
Member
Yeah it is lol
clester
Well-known member
$TYX and $TNX ( 30 and 10 year) are testing resistance at the 1.70 are and have spent 3 days over 50 dma. This is not good news for the F fund. If we go above 1.70 I will have to exit although I expect a retest of the 50 dma. Stock funds don't look that attractive either. S&p it too far above its 50 dma and at top of channel. I would love to see it retest it's 50 dma. Efa still has its gap. $emw is at top of trading range.
My crystal ball is cloudy. I can't see a thing. Perhaps that means I should head for G for the rest of the month?
My crystal ball is cloudy. I can't see a thing. Perhaps that means I should head for G for the rest of the month?
crommie
Member
Good job summing up how all of us F Funders are feeling...getting painful to stay put, stocks may be headed south, so G is the only viable out, but with one IFT left, that would lock the Garage door until Sept 1st...
Looking at Ocean's List, I have never seen such high numbers in F and such low numbers in C/S/I. That probably means that F is the wrong place to be! :worried: I plan on staying put until Monday or Tuesday before moving to C with perhaps a slice of I.
Looking at Ocean's List, I have never seen such high numbers in F and such low numbers in C/S/I. That probably means that F is the wrong place to be! :worried: I plan on staying put until Monday or Tuesday before moving to C with perhaps a slice of I.
clester
Well-known member
The only good thing about being in F right now is that it moves slowly and in very small increments.Good job summing up how all of us F Funders are feeling...getting painful to stay put, stocks may be headed south, so G is the only viable out, but with one IFT left, that would lock the Garage door until Sept 1st...
clester
Well-known member
I hear ya. Like the I fund, it has fair value adjustments. I almost never make money in it. It did recently but not so far this time.The "F" fund left a really bad taste in my mouth years ago, I just can't stand the taste now YUCK!
The market is just treading water. I will stay with F for now but I will be watching the 50 dma on agg and Bnd charts. That's my line in the sand. The volatility has settled down in stocks but is now picking up in bonds. Big gap down today (or gap up on $tnx)
craigerv
Member
What are fair value adjustments and why do they affect those two funds?
clester
Well-known member
The people who manage our funds try to imitate the Efa index fund for I fund and agg for F fund. So, sometimes they have to make adjustments called fair valuation to account for their holdings that don't perform like the intended fund. This causes valuations to not match up exactly like the intended funds for any particular day.
Basically, they (barclays, or blackrock who manages our funds) don't a good job of following the intended index.
craigerv
Member
Nevermind, answered my own question: https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/fundsoverview/sharePriceCalculation.shtml
clester
Well-known member
Surprisingly, the F fund was flat. I was expecting a down day and a pretty big one at that. I hope that means we are at the end of the downtrend. Fridays have been up for stocks for a while like Monday's have been down til this week. So will friday change to being down?
clester
Well-known member
Looks like it so far.
clester
Well-known member
Looks like another boring day on tap.
clester
Well-known member
If we are up today that would be 7 in a row for s&p. Odds are against much more upside. I keep hearing of how hedge funds are covering shorts and everything seems rosy. Its the most hated rally.
Hedge funds have had terrible returns. Even though they have the funds to push the market around they still suck. Maybe a play contrary to them is a good idea. If they have covered all the shirts there may not be much buying from here. I also heard they are now short treasurys heavily. That may have been the selloff. I think they may be about the only ones in the market except for high freq. traders and 401k and Ira money that mostly is buy and hold.
I guess I'll just have to stick to my bonds for now. The risk/reward is not there IMO in stocks. But I am keeping an open mind.
clester
Well-known member
Man, this is really getting old. I don't like a lot of volatility but some is nice. Jeezz.
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