Cactus' Account Talk

[evilanne]

Response directly from TSP in response to message I sent yesterday--logged into TSP online account:

You asked if an email you received regarding the TSP's updated privacy policy was a legitimate email.

The TSP offers a free email subscription service through GovDelivery which allows participants to receive general TSP notifications by email. Your email address will be used to notify you when updates are made to the TSP website. The email you received was legitimate, and tsp@public.govdelivery.com is a valid email address.

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks evilanne.

I got the email from TSP also. Read it, but didn't do anything about it. If I get emails from businesses/organizations I have dealt with asking for info I never click the link. I will go directly to the website I already have to make any changes.

 

[Cactus]

Actually it is ustsp at what you posted. TSP has been using it since at least July 2015. If it was just tsp at what you posted this is different.

Company is called Granicus. Admin dot govdelivery dot com will get you there. Just another .gov contractor causing people to violate the cyber security rules preached daily at the j o b. Just one more place that has your info.

PO

I here ya, PO. It really bugs me that my PI is indiscriminately given out to all these entities that I have no control over. They tell us to be careful but we aren't the ones who are leaving our info out there to be compromised.

Response directly from TSP in response to message I sent yesterday--logged into TSP online account:

Thanks for the additional info, Evilanne.

Thanks evilanne.

I got the email from TSP also. Read it, but didn't do anything about it. If I get emails from businesses/organizations I have dealt with asking for info I never click the link. I will go directly to the website I already have to make any changes.

Yep, that's the way to do it.

 

[Cactus]

Well, it looks like the I Fund was the fund to be in in march. That seams a little early as typically the S Fund does well in March and the I Fund does well in April.

March winner count from 2001 - 2016:
[TABLE="width: 100"]
[TR]
[TD]S[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]I[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


April winner count from 2001 - 2016:
[TABLE="width: 100"]
[TR]
[TD]I[/TD]
[TD]S[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Tsunami]

The I fund may be facing a strong headwind during April. No way to know for sure, but the dollar could have just bottomed after bouncing off the 200dma.

UUP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

So, yes, the I fund is statistically the way to go in April, but look at how overbought the index is...

EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

While the S fund has room to rumble...

$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I'm in the I fund and it's shot me up from the 900's in the tracker to the 400's (not to mention that I just hit my retirement target for my tsp today! ) but I'm contemplating bucking the trend in April. Over the last 10 years, the I fund has averaged a 3.61% gain in April, versus 2.83% for S, and 2.69% for C. All very strong but if there's a dollar headwind then S or C could win out. I might spread my bets in April and go with a CSI mix.

 

[FogSailing]

Good strategy TS! And HOW BOUT THEM ZAGS!

I have loved every game. The WV game was a nail biter. They are some tough hombres.

Wish I had tickets to the Final Four since it's here in Phoenix but it will just be my wife and I and our good friends: cold beer, nachos, burgs, and lots of Hagen Daz to get us through the game..

FS

 

[nasa1974]

French elections towards the end of April could rattle the "I" fund. Not sure how the protesting in Russia will affect the "I" fund for the next week or two, currently it doesn't seem to be. The "I" fund statistically has been strong in April, I wonder with such a strong showing in March if it flattens out for April. Tsunami, like you said maybe a "CSI" for April might not be a bad idea. What kind of percentages are you thinking?

 

[Cactus]

The I fund may be facing a strong headwind during April. No way to know for sure, but the dollar could have just bottomed after bouncing off the 200dma.

UUP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

So, yes, the I fund is statistically the way to go in April, but look at how overbought the index is...

EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

While the S fund has room to rumble...

$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I'm in the I fund and it's shot me up from the 900's in the tracker to the 400's (not to mention that I just hit my retirement target for my tsp today! ) but I'm contemplating bucking the trend in April. Over the last 10 years, the I fund has averaged a 3.61% gain in April, versus 2.83% for S, and 2.69% for C. All very strong but if there's a dollar headwind then S or C could win out. I might spread my bets in April and go with a CSI mix.

French elections towards the end of April could rattle the "I" fund. Not sure how the protesting in Russia will affect the "I" fund for the next week or two, currently it doesn't seem to be. The "I" fund statistically has been strong in April, I wonder with such a strong showing in March if it flattens out for April. Tsunami, like you said maybe a "CSI" for April might not be a bad idea. What kind of percentages are you thinking?

Yes, I been thinking of remaining in the S Fund for precisely these reasons. If I switched to the I Fund now I would be buying high and locking in my losses in the S Fund right at the time when it could be coming back. The S Fund has the most room to come back. I still have a few more days before April to decide.

 

[nasa1974]

Yes, I been thinking of remaining in the S Fund for precisely these reasons. If I switched to the I Fund now I would be buying high and locking in my losses in the S Fund right at the time when it could be coming back. The S Fund has the most room to come back. I still have a few more days before April to decide.

I used my first IFT to jump from "S" to "I" Monday and yesterday was good for both, figures. :nuts: Hoping the "S" fund stays lower so I have a chance to jump back without taking too much of a hit. The rest of the week will be interesting.

 

[Whipsaw]

Looks like I Fund gapped down with the BREXIT news, hopefully it will climb out.

 

[Tsunami]

French elections towards the end of April could rattle the "I" fund. Not sure how the protesting in Russia will affect the "I" fund for the next week or two, currently it doesn't seem to be. The "I" fund statistically has been strong in April, I wonder with such a strong showing in March if it flattens out for April. Tsunami, like you said maybe a "CSI" for April might not be a bad idea. What kind of percentages are you thinking?

I just moved to 40% S, 30% C, 30% I in my account. I was able to do so since I still had a 2nd IFT left thanks to my screw-up earlier this month when I apparently clicked on the contribution allocation change link instead of the IFT link. So in the tracker I can't change it and will still show 100% I, argh. My actual account return is very close to the Autotracker return, but now they will diverge a bit, who knows which way, but I do think the I fund is likely to lag C and/or S in April. Here's a ratio chart that shows the turn up from a very oversold level...
$DWCPF:EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

 

[ravensfan]

Looks like I Fund gapped down with the BREXIT news, hopefully it will climb out.

I thought about exiting today as this was only a short play for me. However, it may be smarter to wait until tomorrow before I exit. As you know, Friday is the end of the quarter and typically when the institutional money takes profits, so I'm thinking the big boys will be padding their returns through tomorrow and we have a sell-off on Friday...It will probably be a break even day today...

 

[pmaloney]

Tom may be able to fix that error in Autotracker. :smile:

 

[uscfanhawaii]

I just moved to 40% S, 30% C, 30% I in my account. I was able to do so since I still had a 2nd IFT left thanks to my screw-up earlier this month when I apparently clicked on the contribution allocation change link instead of the IFT link. So in the tracker I can't change it and will still show 100% I, argh.

Hey, go ahead and put in your current IFT into the Tracker. If you do it today, it will reflect it COB tomorrow, and at least you will be starting off April with the correct mix and 2 fresh IFTs.

 

[Cactus]

This is not looking good. The S Fund just doesn't get a break.

I guess it's waiting for me to bail. Well keep waiting.

 

[Cactus]

OK, what just happened at 2:00 P.M. that caused the market to jump?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Early release of Comey testimony. He confirmed Trump was not under investigation.

 

[Cactus]

That's not a very convincing bounce today. I guess no one wants to be in over the weekend.

For the C Fund it looks like the 50 SMA is now acting as resistance from below. The I Fund is right on its 50 SMA while the S Fund is way below.

I don't think the bottom is in yet.

 

[Cactus]

One day pop and then back down. I was afraid of that.

The S Fund is especially worrisome. Looks like it is already going to give back half of what it recouped yesterday.

 

[Cactus]

I guess Thursdays is not the day to be in the market.