Cactus' Account Talk

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Have you continued following your system during this recent market volatility or have you been paralyzed into inaction with that deer-in-the-headlights look?

Is the Recent Stock Market Volatility Giving You

When you come up with a system it has to work for you in bear markets as well as bull markets or you'll end up relying on your emotions and losing what you worked so hard to gain.
 
I bailed 100% G today. Too much bullish sentiment out there for my taste. Now that the S&P500 has punched through the 50 day SMA the sentiment seams to be that it will continue up to the 200. I don't think so. I think we will pull back first.

My contrarian side says not quite yet, though. We've had two down opening-days-of-the-month in a row so we are due for a positive one in March. Unfortunately I think we are too overbought for that and the best you could hope for is a flat day.

All things considered I decided not to be greedy and to keep what I managed to get in February. Looking to buy in again after the next downturn in March.
 
I agree that inflation is the silent killer. But the mortality rate in a G is lower than a poorly picked fund with just a few years left to retirement.

Young-uns can Dollar Cost Average to paradise. Got it. No market timing required unless you want to pull funds out at the top of a bull. Better get the ID on that bull right, though.

The safety in the G fund is not the fact that inflation will decrease what gains we get.......the G fund will provide more cash (though after the inflation demise) than some fund that is tracking down in a declining market (be it bonds or stocks).
 
. . . and the selloff continues. Looks like the Sell-In-May crown is already in full swing.

I think I'll stay put in the G Fund into May. :worried:
 
Well, the S Fund (Wilshire 4500) bounced off the 200 DMA today, but how many times is it going to knock before it falls through? The I Fund started the day on the 200 DMA and moved down. It looks like this could go on for awhile.
 
Well, so far the 200 DMA is still holding for the S Fund (Wilshire 4500), but the I Fund is falling like a rock. :worried:
 
We're 2/3s of the way through the month and the only fund that is positive is G. This isn't looking good folks.

This is more of what I expected for September. I figured they would have propped October up more for the election. Well, we have another week or so to see if they can prop the market into positive territory for October.
 
Cactus said:
Newly retired? Don't get hit by any tax penalties in your first year: http://www.fedsmith.com/2016/11/21/federal-retirees-dont-get-bitten-by-the-estimated-tax-penalty/
Click to expand...

This is really good advice for the newly retired. My wife retired a year ago and I am still working. So taxes on her SS is a major concern...and very difficult to estimate! Throw in some withdrawals from a Traditional IRA, and the tax picture is even more cloudy. I erred on the side of caution, but still ended up with just a small refund. It doesn't take much to underestimate such a small %. Further complication...this year I installed Solar Energy, which will REDUCE my taxable income. So all these factors become really complicated. I guess once you have some history, your estimation can be honed in better. But sheesh...this gets complicated!! :1zhelp: :1zhelp:
 
I had wanted to enter December in the market but both C & S still look top heavy right now. I Fund looks like it has room to rise but can't seam to get over the 200 DMA.

I was toying with the F Fund but it looks like it's headed back down. Maybe I'll forget about it and stay in G until I can get a better entry point.
 
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