Cactus' Account Talk

[Cactus]

For the C Fund it looks like the 50 SMA is continuing to act as resistance. That's not looking good for any resumption of the recent rally. :worried:

 

[nasa1974]

For the C Fund it looks like the 50 SMA is continuing to act as resistance. That's not looking good for any resumption of the recent rally. :worried:

I'll take anything positive right now. :laugh:

 

[Cactus]

I hear ya. I've been there too many times. That's why I'm looking for another big positive push to make up for all I've lost over the years.

 

[Cactus]

Here is a 14 question survey asking Feds how they invest in their TSP in case you are interested in participating: https://www.fedsmith.com/2017/09/11/tsp-federal-employees/

If you participate be sure to leave off the '%' sign on question 8 when it asks about agency matching. They want the percentage as a number without the '%' sign.

 

[Cactus]

Here is an article of interest on the new military retirement system.

FRTIB Issues Proposed Rules for New Blended Retirement System:
https://www.fedsmith.com/2017/09/18/frtib-issues-proposed-rules-new-blended-retirement-system/

 

[Cactus]

Great -- here we go again. Federal employee pay freeze proposed for 2019 and more benefit cuts too!

 

[Whipsaw]

Are we supposed to see a raise? I thought we've been frozen...

 

[Cactus]

This article is referring to 2019. We are still scheduled for a pay increase in 2018 as far as I know. have you heard of a 2018 pay freeze?

 

[uscfanhawaii]

This article is referring to 2019. We are still scheduled for a pay increase in 2018 as far as I know. have you heard of a 2018 pay freeze?

2018 General Raise will be 1.9%. Split 1.4% Regular, and 0.5% Locality.
Trump Authorizes 1.9% Pay Raise for Feds, Says Greater Increase 'Not Warranted' - Pay & Benefits - GovExec.com

(Don't spend it all in one place! :Eyecrazy: )

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm hoping the raise covers the increase in health insurance premiums.

2018 General Raise will be 1.9%. Split 1.4% Regular, and 0.5% Locality.
Trump Authorizes 1.9% Pay Raise for Feds, Says Greater Increase 'Not Warranted' - Pay & Benefits - GovExec.com

(Don't spend it all in one place! :Eyecrazy: )

 

[Cactus]

Let's see. C Fund up. I Fund up. S Fund slightly down to neutral.

Figures that it would be the fund I jump into that performs the worst

 

[Whipsaw]

I hear you, what happened? FOMC?

 

[Cactus]

Amendment to end TSP Catch-Up contributions: https://www.fedsmith.com/2017/11/13/proposed-amendment-eliminate-current-tsp-catch-contributions/

 

[Cactus]

I don't like the way the markets dropped at the end of the day today. So much for seasonality. As of yesterday the S Fund was only 0.28% for the month and the I Fund was just 0.45%. The C Fund at least got above the 1% mark at 1.29%. So much for any Santa Claus rally. At this point it looks like the markets are exhausted and the near term top is in. Maybe we get a little last day hurrah tomorrow, but I'm expecting it to trickle down next week into the New Year. My two cents.

 

[nasa1974]

I don't like the way the markets dropped at the end of the day today. So much for seasonality. As of yesterday the S Fund was only 0.28% for the month and the I Fund was just 0.45%. The C Fund at least got above the 1% mark at 1.29%. So much for any Santa Claus rally. At this point it looks like the markets are exhausted and the near term top is in. Maybe we get a little last day hurrah tomorrow, but I'm expecting it to trickle down next week into the New Year. My two cents.

Same thing happened yesterday around 2pm.

 

[Cactus]

Yeah, I saw that. This and the fact that the week after Christmas was negative for the last three years (2014, 2015 & 2016) makes me wonder if I should get out today.

I'll probably ride it out but remember that I make a pretty good contrarian indicator.

 

[Cactus]

Another flat day. So much for the positive bias seasonality on the day after Christmas. Let's hope it doesn't go south from here into the New Year. :worried:

 

[Cactus]

Once again the C & S Funds are negative for the last week of the year. December was disappointing overall.

From here I guess we take our lump of coal and hope for a better start to 2018.

 

[ravensfan]

Once again the C & S Funds are negative for the last week of the year. December was disappointing overall.

From here I guess we take our lump of coal and hope for a better start to 2018.

You would have thought with the passage of the tax reform bill this would have been a Santa Claus rally for the record books. But instead, the Grinch showed up again.

 

[evilanne]

Yes, C & S were disappointing yesterday but doesn't the "Santa rally", if there is one, extend into the 1st few days of the new year?

It is hard to tell how taxes impact everyone's actions...RMDs have to be taken by end of year to avoid any tax penalty, which may require selling; only losses offset gains that will reduce gains/taxes for this year; short term gains are the only thing I can see being delayed by the pending tax law since LT capital gains will pretty much be taxed the same now or later.