burrocrat's Account Talk

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i had a dream. i know, i know it was columbus not martin day. but i had a dream and i think it could be profitable in the investing future. so i'm going to share it with my tsptalk friends.

i dreamed about barley, in exquisite detail. not just barley, but beef barley soup. every pearl was so plump, so precious, that i counted each one in the spoon before sliding it in my mouth. and there were big chunks of roast in it too. it was the best soup i have ever imagined in my life. i think it means beef and barley plays could be important.

beef because of the national herd size and the time it takes to increase it and the price of corn because it would hard for it to go much lower without china ok'ing gmo crops. so a 2 year positive cycle on cattle futures is ahead unless everybody starts eating chicken noodle instead.

and barley because much of the north plains barley crop did not make malt grade due to untimely heavy rains. most of it has only feed value now, sprouted in the head, some family farms will go down, blood on the plow, that kind of rain. that means a shortage of malt which means a shortage of beer which means high prices for budweiser right? not so fast. short anhauser busch. the price already jumped $0.70 per 18 pack this weekend for busch lite which everyone knows is bottom of the barrel. at some price point beer drinkers will stop drinking beer when it becomes too much to bear. short anhauser bush and go long absolut. you don't hear about potato shortages in chechnya do ya? also maybe go long orange juice, but that comes with its own regional weather risk. damn global warming anyways.

cheers. and don't say i didn't tole you so.
 
I do like my beer. Wheat has been dropping like a rock all year and many big name beers use it for their primary malt, such as Shock Top and Blue Moon. It would be interesting to see if their prices are coming down and if that has reflected in increased sales.
 
As the price of gasoline/diesel go down carriers will be forced to charge less for deliveries which will invite the retailers to charge less for commodities!:D
 
I don't know about barley and hops, but corn has had a Banner Year and the price of hard liquor could be effected!:toung::Dhic!
 
And to tie grains, beer and bourbon together with Columbus day...a friend of mines 4th grade boy had to list 10 things he thought Columbus would have packed for his trip. On his list was horses and grain for them dogs and food for them, clothes, cooking stuff, guns, axes, beer and bourbon. True story...and yes the parents had to have a talk with the teacher.
 
here's the part all you negative nellies don't understand. gas is $3.47 here even though we are sitting on the largest active play in the world. and it almost all gets shipped out by rail while elevators are full, bins on the farm are still full of last year's crop, and grain lies in piles rotting on the ground because warren buffet and his magic money machine will not send unit trains to haul grain as they are all busy blowing themselves up full of bakken crude. and no environmentally sound keystone pipeline in the works because the greenies is afraid about drinking water, oh boo hoo. that is why gas is cheap. save $0.20 per gallon in gas to drive to the store to pay $0.70 more per gallon for beer. the math is simple once you understand the macroeconomic implications.

oh yee little faith. i'm telling you the price of beer is going to skyrocket. i saw it in a dream. for a shining moment it was all so clear. it was the most sensuous dream about soup i have ever had in my life. it was beef and barley. get with the program.
 
Mcqlives said:
And to tie grains, beer and bourbon together with Columbus day...a friend of mines 4th grade boy had to list 10 things he thought Columbus would have packed for his trip. On his list was horses and grain for them dogs and food for them, clothes, cooking stuff, guns, axes, beer and bourbon. True story...and yes the parents had to have a talk with the teacher.
Click to expand...

was the talk with the teacher because of the guns?
 
i think official market terminology for what has happened to my tsp returns over the last couple weeks is: 'waxed'.
 
well, if you're going to pee away 6.5% of your retirement savings, you might as well get the job done in under two weeks is what i always say.
 
burrocrat said:
not just barley, but beef barley soup. every pearl was so plump, so precious, that i counted each one in the spoon before sliding it in my mouth. and there were big chunks of roast in it too. it was the best soup i have ever imagined in my life. i think it means beef and barley plays could be important.
Click to expand...

mmmm, haven't had that in years

burrocrat said:
... the price already jumped $0.70 per 18 pack this weekend for busch lite which everyone knows is bottom of the barrel...
Click to expand...

I think you are wrong about that. What about Natural Light and Natural Ice?
 
I may be econoclass but it appears I've moved up in the world lately. Maybe I still have a shot at one of the monthly chicken dinners again one of these years.
 
alevin said:
I may be econoclass but it appears I've moved up in the world lately. Maybe I still have a shot at one of the monthly chicken dinners again one of these years.
Click to expand...

My guess is that you can hit what you aim at. Eat what you shoot:cheesy:
 
Boghie said:
My guess is that you can hit what you aim at. Eat what you shoot:cheesy:
Click to expand...

I always do, just want to eat a little better than I have been lately. :nuts: Not quite as set as the new 55yo guy, since I'm 57 and a bit below his accumulations. I am definitely buying that Money Lies book you recommended to them. may help me finally figure out what and how I need to be managing tsp as well as other accounts to be most effective without too much risk prior to retirement. 2 years and counting. minimum time possible, all depends on how things go the next 2-3 years.

Good chance I will stay longer if circumstances suggest that is needed. And if I don't stay longer, I still foresee some post-retirement employment parttime for awhile in my future-if conditions allow and supplement/SS/FERS excess income rules don't sabotage the idea. retirement timelines are entirely contingent on situation at decision point and outside income opportunities that may await (or not).
 
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