burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

I thought it was a Politician holiday.

every day is like a holiday if you're a politician. it's all just leather chairs and free steaks and whiskey with lobbyists who are very interested in offering you a high dollar consulting position at their firm once this legislation gets pushed through.

it's good to be the king.

 

[burrocrat]

ift to 100G cob today. i hope it holds positive until the close.

quick like a bunny, in and out, gonna twist off here and lock in some gains for june.

 

[bmneveu]

ift to 100G cob today. i hope it holds positive until the close.

quick like a bunny, in and out, gonna twist off here and lock in some gains for june.

I did not pull the trigger. Even though RSI indicates it is completely overbought, I think I'm gonna stay in until I see a red candle or we have a huge up day.

 

[burrocrat]

ok, something different for the ark update this week. actually, a couple things different. first, we're adding a new participant. and second, there's probably gonna be a bunch of crap said. wait, maybe that ain't so different after all.

1st, welcome aboard bmnevue/penguin. we were at 11, but now it's an even dozen. or maybe a dirty dozen the way things tend to go 'round hea'. this guy must have ice water running through his veins, and always lookin' smart and sharp. he slings chips around like a big swingin' dick, obviously don't care or else knows something most of the rest of us don't. so he's in.

and before the censors go gettin' all trigger happy, 'big swingin' dick' is an official investing term from the '80's. i think i read it in a book called liar's poker, or else it was about a movie called barbarians at the gate or else it had schwaab or forbes or somebody like that in it, no matter, it's all the same idea anyways.

2nd, boghie has done a nice job of comparing current allocations with swimwear we can all understand and i hope he keeps it up. but i think a look at trading history how much and how often might also be informative and lend weight to the gravity of any one's holdings at the moment.

so i'm going to think on #2 for a bit and see what comes out.

 

[burrocrat]

i'm still thinking. this might take longer than i thought, there's math involved.

oh, and i'm switching to a base 10 scale. 12 voyagers, 1 min, 5 median, 10 max, scale 12 to 120 with 60 nuetral. aggregate deviance from 60 equals bullish/bearish indicator.

ps. i like deviants.

 

[burrocrat]

ok, here is my best attempt at redefining the metric. it would work better in a spreadsheet but those are tough to do on a phone. so i keep it mostly in my head but that don't work very well either sometimes and it's difficult to explain. i wrote it all down on a sheet of paper but my handwriting sucks. so here it is.

i use 8 informal data points for each voyager to come up with a ranking from 1-10 where each is sitting on their own personally relative risk/voalitility continuim, then i aggregate them. i do it mostly by feel, so an individual point breakdown is unusual. but for the record, here are the categories i watch, and where each participant sits right now. this will be probably the most detailed analysis of my system ever so pay attention. a score of 1 is always conservative, and 10 is volatile. all of these boil down to a summary of 3 key scores: name (who you are and can't change), style (rock, paper, or scissors), and current stance (relative to personal norm). then i add things up and divide them and times by 100. confusing, i know.

 

[burrocrat]

on metrics: all facts are weighted relative to personal style. 1 lo, 10 hi on the risk curve.

1. name, obvious.
2. current stance, subjective.
3. ytd returns, fact.
4. frequency of trades, fact.
5. length of trades, fact.
6. scale of moves, fact.
7. last year's returns, fact.
8. style, subjective. rock = squatter. paper = fiddler. scissors = cowboy.

1 and 3 through 8 factor into how 2 is derived. 2 is the number that gets aggregated and mathed with the others to inform trades. pretty simple.

 

[burrocrat]

raw data on a quick rough cut:

alevin/mouse: 6, 0.83%, 2, 2, 1, 2.18%, rock.
amoeba/turtle: 3, 2.23%, 10, 1, 4, 0.02%, paper.
birchtree/elephant: 5, 5.98%, 1, 1, 10, 24.35%, rock. (this freak has been all in equities since at least 2008 and has not made an ift in over 2 years).
bmnevue/penguin: 10, 10.93%, 8, 8, 10, 3.82%, scissors.
boghie/lion: 7, 4.42%, 7, 6, 7, 16.79%, paper.
burrocrat/donkey: 1, 4.11%, 7, 9, 10, 5.06%, scissors.
fwm/racoon: 2, (-5.28%), 8, 6, 8, 12.13%, scissors.
jonfresno/kangaroo: 1, 2.37%, 6, 6, 8, 9.14%, scissors.
jpcavin/cougar: 7, 6.04%, 6, 5, 4, 26.90%, paper.
jth/wolf: 2, 9.07%, 10, 8, 8, 23.63%, scissors.
mrbowl/owl: 1, 1.42%, 7, 7, 10, 16.40%, scissors.
pessoptimist/squirrel: 7, 4.54%, 2, 2, 7, 15.10%, paper. (i don't understand why your wife is so unhappy, you're knocking down good gains).

 

[burrocrat]

detailed analysis:

score 51, min 12, max 120, nuetral 60. 51 minus 60 equals 9 divided by 60 equals 0.15 times 100 equals negative (-15%).

bail, bail, bail. run now. shut up, just run. now. run. totally bearish.

i hope the ****** wheels come off this train and it slow crashes with much pain and torment for the longs over the next 10 days so i can get back in come july and score. i'm 100% in G and a don't bettor now.

 

[burrocrat]

general analysis:

this year's top 3 ytd: penguin 10.93% scissors; wolf 9.07% scissors; cougar 6.04% paper. so far 2014 is favoring active traders.

last year's top 3: cougar 26.90% paper; elephant 24.35% rock; wolf 23.63% scissors. last year favored the bold.

 

[burrocrat]

executive summary:

any given runner can win the race at any given time. it's not who you are, or what you got, but rather how you use it.

oh, and fortune favors the bold.

that's all i got. that's how i understand how things work. good luck at the tables. later.

 

[Boghie]

Burro,

Nice analysis. Between you and JTH and Coolhand I think something is being crafted that could be useful for those on the entire planet...

 

[burrocrat]

Burro,

Nice analysis. Between you and JTH and Coolhand I think something is being crafted that could be useful for those on the entire planet...

that might be a little optimistic. but i knew you would appreciate the comma delimited values. now work your magic.

this weekend i am dropping into one of those cell holes on the att verizon map. checking out.

 

[Boghie]

Burro,

I know you are going to respect this.

My ads are now Victoria Secret swimwear oriented. I am adding a fifth style so I can match it to the standard quintuple breakout. So, I carefully studied the difference between the bikini, the Brazilian cut, and the thong. It was rather pleasant. It could definitely be worse, eh. Far worse. Glad I didn't find a site selling JP's C Cup thingy or whatever. Yowser... Thank you Tom:cheesy:.

Anyway, would anyone on the ark get mad if I took Burro's work, some of my own, and data mined the AT to get the risk/reward for ark denizens? I could use some help from the ever Prickly Cactus and Chartmaster Flash JTH for future analysis and smell test on the output. CH has/had a nice trend breakout of the bunch of us that I loved, but alas he is paying for his service (and apparently has a pay portal himself). So, next month I think I will go paid - but not necessarily to buy into a system. I just want to keep in touch with the others that pay in. I am largely out of debt now and would like to see what the smart folk are doing. However, I don't want to jump out of the ark. Big cats can swim, but they don't like it.

 

[JTH]

I'm sorry, I could not help myself...View attachment 29198

View attachment 29197

 

[jpcavin]

I'm sorry, I could not help myself...View attachment 29198

View attachment 29197

I don't know if this changes the spreadsheet in any way but I have not made an IFT since Summer 2013. I've just been updating the AT to account for biweekly allocations and gains and losses. :blink:

 

[burrocrat]

Anyway, would anyone on the ark get mad if I took Burro's work, some of my own, and data mined the AT to get the risk/reward for ark denizens? I could use some help from the ever Prickly Cactus and Chartmaster Flash JTH for future analysis and smell test on the output. CH has/had a nice trend breakout of the bunch of us that I loved, but alas he is paying for his service (and apparently has a pay portal himself). So, next month I think I will go paid - but not necessarily to buy into a system. I just want to keep in touch with the others that pay in. I am largely out of debt now and would like to see what the smart folk are doing. However, I don't want to jump out of the ark. Big cats can swim, but they don't like it.

i would like to see the results of your datamining, remember, it's easier to ask forgiveness than permission.

are you joining the premium service darkside? nnnoooooo. your positions and moves are going lights out in july? that sucks. i was a member of a premium sevice for a year, but tom let my trades stay public because i only used it as another piece of data to inform my trades. i never moved in lockstep with the pack, in fact i don't think i followed even one of the signals. which probably explains why the system outperformed me by a long ways, but that's another story.

whenever i think i've come up with a great idea, i always hear luke skywalker in the back of my head reminding me "well, if there's a bright center to the universe, you're on the planet it's farthest from".

 

[burrocrat]

My ads are now Victoria Secret swimwear oriented. I am adding a fifth style so I can match it to the standard quintuple breakout. So, I carefully studied the difference between the bikini, the Brazilian cut, and the thong. It was rather pleasant. It could definitely be worse, eh. Far worse. Glad I didn't find a site selling JP's C Cup thingy or whatever. Yowser...

now that is an area into which i've put a lot of research. if you are going to go with the brazillian, i would suggest you also check out some helpful products that may ease the transition. two that i have heard work well are Relax and Wax No-Scream Cream, and No Trauma Momma. but i haven't tried them myself, yet.

 

[burrocrat]

I'm sorry, I could not help myself...View attachment 29198

View attachment 29197

nice work jth. i can't open on my phone and see the formula behind the green shaded cells, so it will have to wait until i'm around a computer tomorrow to reverse engineer them, but that is so cool i just have to ask.

the green shaded cells are colored proportionately according to the value they contain on a scale of 1-10. are they a single cell and is there a formula for that? or is it 10 small cells without gridlines and manually shaded with the data entered into cell #5 and center justified? either way, it's totally cool.

if you were an artificial intelligence or female, or better yet a female artificial intelligence, your spreadsheets and charts would make me horny. actually, they do anyways, but don't tell anyone. it's not like i'm going to hunt you down over the internet and send you flowers or anything, it's not like that at all.

you look very nice in that spreadsheet today jth, it flatters your figures.

 

[bmneveu]

that chart makes it very clear BT, JTH and JPCavin (can I call you JPC?) have had the best trailing 18 months out of all of us. All mid 20s last year, all doing very well this year too. All that said, BT has done it with the lowest average (is that like a combined risk assessment?). Well done all.