burrocrat's Account Talk

[JTH]

the green shaded cells are colored proportionately according to the value they contain on a scale of 1-10. are they a single cell and is there a formula for that? or is it 10 small cells without gridlines and manually shaded with the data entered into cell #5 and center justified? either way, it's totally cool.

if you were an artificial intelligence or female, or better yet a female artificial intelligence, your spreadsheets and charts would make me horny. actually, they do anyways, but don't tell anyone. it's not like i'm going to hunt you down over the internet and send you flowers or anything, it's not like that at all.

you look very nice in that spreadsheet today jth, it flatters your figures.

Thanks friend, I used the data wizard to paste your text into the individual cells, separating the data by a "," (Something Tom showed me)

The Green cells are proportionate to the cells highlighted, so the highest number gets the most green. In this case, each column was highlighted individually, then I used MS-EXCEL 2013's Conditional Formatting-Data Bars-Green Data bar. As you can see from the attached picture, I omitted FWM's YTD cell because it screwed with the visual flow. Lucky me, I finished with my school work early and was just finding a relaxing way to unwind for the evening, I figured I'd try to attach the excel sheet in case you liked it.

View attachment 29199

 

[Boghie]

Ark Analysis - With some other Markers

Uuuggghhhhhhhh, after Burro and JTH chimed in what is left to say. Well, I am going to take a risk and attempt a lifetime risk analysis for the ark members. I also decided to break the animals out into the standard quintile breakdown mutual funds use (Morning Star ratings and the like). Now, what markers could I use as a quintile breakdown. Something like Burro's rock/paper/scissors (which I find intuitive for current holdings mixed with a subjective analysis of trading patterns). Anyway, why not use the L Funds. That is what they are designed to do, eh.

So,

• L-Income is the Burka
• L2020 is the Modest swimsuit
• L2030 is the Bikini swimsuit
• L2040 is the newest fashion - namely the Brazilian cut. Yummy....
• L2050 is the ultimate in fashion - the Thong

That gives me a nice risk breakdown. I have restructured my variant of the Ark toward risk, since that seems to be my emphasis as an Asset Allocator rather than a Swinger like JTH. As you will see, there are lots of successful methods of retirement investing - just pick one that works for you. Also, note that the risk, return, and especially CAGR statistics are heavily influenced by the number of intervals (years in this case) that are part of the study. Stats on folks like JTH, BT, and Burro carry more weight than the newbies like JonFresno and JPCavin. Not to be a negative guy, but those are the facts folks. In addition, a couple of us show the affect of the 2008 hammer as well. Finally, folks such as MrBowl, JTH, JPCavin, Burro, and BT are accelerating in their returns while we lions seem to be lazing around in the high grass.

So, in the end, just enjoy. This is fun - at least till the Prickly Cactus challenges the CAGR which is a statistical measure of annual return influenced by variance/risk. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (or Internal Rate of Return, IRR) is a better measure of return than simple averages. The CAGR is generally a couple of points lower than the normal average usually presented to suckers like us by the mutual fund companies. Finally, the Current Return/Risk numbers are expected returns after inflation while the lifetime numbers include inflation. Anyway:



The only concern I have is that BirchTree keeps running around with a thong. I have no problem with JPCavin's choice of fashion:toung:, I think she can carry it off. But BT, yowser... To each their own.

Also, JPCavin, the AT can be viewed as an investment tool. That is actually how I use it. Figuring out your actual rate of return without the affects of your contributions is difficult, the AT makes it simple. So, the way you are using it makes sense. As far as I am concerned keep it accurate.

 

[burrocrat]

good work boghie, again. thanks.

i would disagree with a couple of points, but on the whole, nice analysis.

i don't really think i'm the burka type. i like to strip down nekked and just jump in, then on fridays i toss the burka on in case the church folks are watching on the weekend. but as long as they don't see, or the ones that do don't say nothing, then it's all good. isn't there a way to account for that?

also, why brazillian? it's been my experience that both the brazillian and the thong are roughly equally immodest. why not just go with buck naked for the #5 quintwhateverthingy?

that 2008 anchor around some of the necks is going to hurt for awhile. i ate it hard too that year, it just doesn't show, i try to keep the pain bottled up inside most of the time though.

finally, i obviously should be doing better than i am on your chart, so fix that will ya?

ps. if you're trying to be a secret admirer, you're doing a poor job at the secret part.

 

[burrocrat]

for those of you who were around for the early days of the tsp jail shenanigans, here is an item of interest: mcduck made an ift today, his 3rd in 2014, and he's knocking down +5% gains ytd.

 

[Boghie]

good work boghie, again. thanks.

i would disagree with a couple of points, but on the whole, nice analysis.

i don't really think i'm the burka type. i like to strip down nekked and just jump in, then on fridays i toss the burka on in case the church folks are watching on the weekend. but as long as they don't see, or the ones that do don't say nothing, then it's all good. isn't there a way to account for that?

also, why brazillian? it's been my experience that both the brazillian and the thong are roughly equally immodest. why not just go with buck naked for the #5 quintwhateverthingy?

that 2008 anchor around some of the necks is going to hurt for awhile. i ate it hard too that year, it just doesn't show, i try to keep the pain bottled up inside most of the time though.

finally, i obviously should be doing better than i am on your chart, so fix that will ya?

ps. if you're trying to be a secret admirer, you're doing a poor job at the secret part.

Burro, your current holdings are your Burka. A very nice burka, but a burka none the less. The swimwear fashions are point in time. Now. That weird thing they call 'Fast Fashion'. I think a long term analysis would be more along the thing you are trying to get to. I am having a hard time tracking on that. Someone like JTH having a relatively modest lifetime risk (albeit only 6 datapoints) is odd because he is a frequent trader and a swinger to boot. I thought his risk level would be 2040+ but the numbers don't lie. My risk seems high to me since I make an effort to reduce it. Oh well.

But yours is interesting as well. You are quite the swinger but you seem to manage risk. That is a good thing.

Finally, I grabbed the numbers off the annual archives. Some folks like MrBowl have made improvements over the years that do not really show in the aggregated stats. I actually think something that tracks on 'rate of change' to a norm (like a persons 'appropriate' L Fund) would be instructive and I think that is where you are heading. Too me, that sounds horribly like calculus - which I have left deep in my past. I hope to never look that beast in the eye again. Never let Calculus on the Ark. Never.

By the way, I don't want to take part in a trading system. The only desire I have on the dark side is to peek at those that reside there. I wonder if they are standing on a mound of treasure. Just wondering. Some that have similar trading styles as I seem to have migrated to that plane of existence...

 

[burrocrat]

Burro, your current holdings are your Burka. A very nice burka, but a burka none the less. The swimwear fashions are point in time. Now. That weird thing they call 'Fast Fashion'. I think a long term analysis would be more along the thing you are trying to get to. I am having a hard time tracking on that. Someone like JTH having a relatively modest lifetime risk (albeit only 6 datapoints) is odd because he is a frequent trader and a swinger to boot. I thought his risk level would be 2040+ but the numbers don't lie. My risk seems high to me since I make an effort to reduce it. Oh well.

But yours is interesting as well. You are quite the swinger but you seem to manage risk. That is a good thing.

Finally, I grabbed the numbers off the annual archives. Some folks like MrBowl have made improvements over the years that do not really show in the aggregated stats. I actually think something that tracks on 'rate of change' to a norm (like a persons 'appropriate' L Fund) would be instructive and I think that is where you are heading. Too me, that sounds horribly like calculus - which I have left deep in my past. I hope to never look that beast in the eye again. Never let Calculus on the Ark. Never.

By the way, I don't want to take part in a trading system. The only desire I have on the dark side is to peek at those that reside there. I wonder if they are standing on a mound of treasure. Just wondering. Some that have similar trading styles as I seem to have migrated to that plane of existence...

will that current swimwear, lifetime risk, cagr chart change much on a week to week basis? what is the useful time period to spot trends or changes in stance as you respresent it there? the longterm value of that info i can spot right off the bat. very good stuff. and it's free!

thanks cuz.

 

[burrocrat]

i'm glad my system saw today coming last friday and tole me to run.

and i don't think it's done yet. i think it's just warming up. i hope it's just warming up. i don't have a trade until next tuesday so i'm praying for a 3-4% slow bleed over the next week. if that happens i'm going to jam it all back in on the 1st at a discount.

and if that don't happen? oh well, i've been wrong before. and will be again, i'm used to that part. but this one i'm willing bet all my retirement money on. the only thing better than continued international relations deterioration news and more conus political infighting and lies would be if all hell broke loose.

c'mon baby, crash hard, give me a shot, one time honey.

 

[burrocrat]

well crap, it looks like i ended up on the wrong side of the coin flip. again. but i'll finish june/1st half of year at +4% so i'm only behind 2% on my annual goal of 1% per month at this point.

i'll get 'em next time.

 

[Boghie]

will that current swimwear, lifetime risk, cagr chart change much on a week to week basis? what is the useful time period to spot trends or changes in stance as you respresent it there? the longterm value of that info i can spot right off the bat. very good stuff. and it's free!

thanks cuz.

Burro,

The numbers I generate will change based on the number of datapoints the ark members have. BT and I have 6 and this year (7). You, JTH, PO have 5 annual datapoints and this year (6), and so forth. JonFresno has last year and this half (2). The more datapoints the less the CAGR, risk, average annual will move. But, in reality, you really don't make financial decisions on so few datapoints as we have in the AT. Plus, that last datapoint (this year) will obviously be affected by changes from now onward. It really should not be used and for most of us actually reduces our lifetime numbers at this point.

However, one thing you can see is where each of our current holdings expected returns match our long term averages and our markers. For example, if you double my current return (dumb, but fun) to estimate an annual return it would be about 8.8%. My average return (from 2008 through 2013) is a little less than 10% with a CAGR of about 9% (if you include this year the returns drop to what I posted earlier). My current Ret/Risk is 5%/6%. Add a 2% inflation adjustment to the real expected returns and you get 7%/6%. My expected retirement date comes closest to the L2030 with a Ret/Risk of 5%/7% - inflation adjusted to 7%/7%. This means that I am on target to my marker L-Fund (with a little less risk), however will likely underperform my 'long term' norm. Now, that can imply two things: 1) Maybe I am market timing a bit and allocating my holdings to a bit more safety, or 2) I am getting old as dirt and moving my holdings to a less risky setting that will be a new center point. On that I really haven't made a decision. I am older and slower and my mind seems a bit flaky sometimes so anything can happen:toung:. However, between you and I it is likely the first thang. I don't swing like you and JTH. I don't want the Moral Majority to post my picture in the local newspaper and websites if I am hanging out there. So, I play the margins for Alpha - and as you can see from last year, not so successfully.

I think you, JTH, CH, and Cactus could use the concepts posited here (meaning this thread since the ark was formed, not just my stuff which is kinda useless for short runs) and their threads to present short term edges. Kindof a system - eh...

 

[burrocrat]

ark update.

mouse: 5, 0.92%, even.
turtle: 3, 2.27%, even.
elephant: 5, 5.31%, odd.
penguin: 1, 9.81%, out.
lion: 7, 4.44%, even.
donkey: 1, 4.14%, out.
racoon: 2, (-5.28%), out. missed the j train.
kangaroo: 1, 2.37%, out.
cougar: 6, 5.83%, odd.
jth/wolf: 10, 9.87%, in. reclaimed 1st cabin. sneaky.
owl: 1, 1.47%, out.
squirrel: 7, 4.52%, odd.

el vira = 49 - 60 / 60 = -18%. bearish.

the fact that only wolf dared jump in, and everybody else ducked or stayed covered is telling. nobody knows which way the market goes, but usually some will hazard a guess. not this week. big uncertainty and fear, so much so that some conservative types will hold a dangerous position rather than run and be the first to get picked off.

danger.

 

[userque]

burrocrat, what's your suggestion for in which category the TNA forum should be started?

 

[burrocrat]

burrocrat, what's your suggestion for in which category the TNA forum should be

since holding 3x rocket rides for more than a few days is generally not a good idea, how about here?

Short Term Strategies

or else just start a thread in the lounge, sometimes you can cuss there. call it 'oh eff i lost my shirt' or 'pssst, wanna buy some beach front property in arizona?'

 

[burrocrat]

burrocrat, what's your suggestion for in which category the TNA forum should be started?

p.s. the grammar goes like this: what's your suggestion 'for the category in which' the tna forum should be started?

thank you, mrs. wenzel.

 

[userque]

thanks....and thanks again

I was thinking Short Term as well...I'll also consider the Lounge option too.

 

[burrocrat]

ok, here is how i know i'm totally screwed and going straight to hell... all my banner ads, not just on tsptalk but the whole google, are for mormon.org or else for hearing aids. which is kind of ironic in a way because the last time they tried to save me all i could come up with was 'huh'? damn devil in the details crap anyways.

i haven't had the elders knock on my door since about 1998 after my mom died and couldn't give them my current address anymore, but they're onto me again now it seems.

i have been very careful what i say, and to whom, for a long time. but it appears it is a blown deal now. my dentist is one, and at least one of his hygenists is a sister wife. i know this because if you grew up in the culture then you can read the signs. i wonder if i said something stupid under aesthesia during that root canal. it don't matter anyhow, they just know. blown deal.

now they walk up and down my street. which is strange because the nearest congregation/house of worship is in another town 30 miles away. but here they are knocking on my door. they didn't knock on anybody else's door on my street.

oh god, i'm so screwed. they're onto me again and they never let go.

 

[Boghie]

One Animal Moves to the European Sundeck

Well,

We had an animal migration this week. One of the animals moved to the European sundeck:cheesy:



I marked that beast with " -> ". From this point onward, the " -> " will be the mark of a beast on the hoof. Hopefully we will not see the S&P500 at 666 ever again - that was the real mark of the beast. If that happens than all bets are off and the beasts of the ark will probably all be in burkas. The best of us will don the burka the earliest. But, like Burro, I sure see a lot of burkas this summer. Anyway, to help Burro out on what the heck all this work means I employ the Freakanomics concept of statistics being used incorrectly and put the Fandango hat on. The best I can come up with is:

There are three of us that seem to think the weather will turn bad soon. I marked those beasts with a rainy color. Those beasts are sitting around with a current risk factor significantly less than their norm. Now, some of us have gotten older in the last six years so maybe our styles have changed a bit. But, who knows. Commander Data does not have enough information to compute.

And then there is the one animal who hopped over to the European sundeck. This chap spent enough time in a one-piece that he has some funny tan lines. JP and BT are snickering. For that matter, I am snickering. I give him - being the first beast to migrate to more risk than normal - a sunburn color. Anyway, JTH believes that he can keep his European look by jumping in and out of a one-piece. I don't know how it works, and it looks kinda funny, but it seems to work. The numbers don't lie.​

The other thing of note is that bonds seem to be where it is at - till the day the wolf showed up at the sundeck. I think that is odd. I've been waiting for them to cr@p out, but they chug ever onward.

 

[alevin]

Re: One Animal Moves to the European Sundeck

I swore I was going to change my wicked burka ways, start following jth or fwm, only head for cover when they do, then I looked at their performances thus far this year and decided I'd follow jth preferentially (secret reason I'm partly in F anyways, most of the leaders been hiding in F this year instead of G when they duck for cover).

so be it, the EFA chart looks like it wants to pop, whether I make any gains before the pop loses its fizz is another story. going for the euro bleu tomorrow-in part. still going to wear the one-piece bleu style I favor while in Europe since I'm a day late on being a good follower. I'll put most of the risk allocation into S, per JTH. burka off the shoulder, new style. move along now, no gawking.

 

[jpcavin]

Re: One Animal Moves to the European Sundeck

I swore I was going to change my wicked burka ways, start following jth or fwm, only head for cover when they do, then I looked at their performances thus far this year and decided I'd follow jth preferentially (secret reason I'm partly in F anyways, most of the leaders been hiding in F this year instead of G when they duck for cover).

so be it, the EFA chart looks like it wants to pop, whether I make any gains before the pop loses its fizz is another story. going for the euro bleu tomorrow-in part. still going to wear the one-piece bleu style I favor while in Europe since I'm a day late on being a good follower. I'll put most of the risk allocation into S, per JTH. burka off the shoulder, new style. move along now, no gawking.

Don't forget a little leg is always good too.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: One Animal Moves to the European Sundeck

oh hell yeah! i totally understand when you talkin freakonomics dude!

Well,

We had an animal migration this week. One of the animals moved to the European sundeck:cheesy:

View attachment 29294

I marked that beast with " -> ". From this point onward, the " -> " will be the mark of a beast on the hoof. Hopefully we will not see the S&P500 at 666 ever again - that was the real mark of the beast. If that happens than all bets are off and the beasts of the ark will probably all be in burkas. The best of us will don the burka the earliest. But, like Burro, I sure see a lot of burkas this summer. Anyway, to help Burro out on what the heck all this work means I employ the Freakanomics concept of statistics being used incorrectly and put the Fandango hat on. The best I can come up with is:

There are three of us that seem to think the weather will turn bad soon. I marked those beasts with a rainy color. Those beasts are sitting around with a current risk factor significantly less than their norm. Now, some of us have gotten older in the last six years so maybe our styles have changed a bit. But, who knows. Commander Data does not have enough information to compute.

And then there is the one animal who hopped over to the European sundeck. This chap spent enough time in a one-piece that he has some funny tan lines. JP and BT are snickering. For that matter, I am snickering. I give him - being the first beast to migrate to more risk than normal - a sunburn color. Anyway, JTH believes that he can keep his European look by jumping in and out of a one-piece. I don't know how it works, and it looks kinda funny, but it seems to work. The numbers don't lie.​

The other thing of note is that bonds seem to be where it is at - till the day the wolf showed up at the sundeck. I think that is odd. I've been waiting for them to cr@p out, but they chug ever onward.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: One Animal Moves to the European Sundeck

Don't forget a little leg is always good too.

View attachment 29295

oh allah, and here i am fresh out of 20's.