burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

given the economic uncertainty and typically lower expected volume the rest of the year, we should see more than average volatility. the direction doesn't matter so much as catching a ride on the pendulum at the right time, profit from the spread.

if i didn't think i was better than average i wouldn't play the game, so i've got a built in bias here, but i have to admit (my decisions in) life has set me back to square one more than i care to admit. i wouldn't trade the experiences or people along the way for nuthing though, makes me who i am.

anywho, i miss the old roller coaster days of '08, man that was somethin you don't see every day. funny thing though, i don't remember stepping off the ride, i wonder what's next, something big i expect.

if the swami in the box would just tell me which way the dollar is heading for a quarter, i'd be 6 bits in the berries, good enough for me.

 

[burrocrat]

1% trade #1:

i'm going to try this <1% thing just to see how much i can move out of G fund, it's the 20th, 1/3 of the month left, let's see what happens.

TSP site says i'm at: G30.05, F30.12, C15.03, S9.97, I14.83.

New allocation: G28, F31, C16, S10, I15.

 

[burrocrat]

New allocation: G28, F31, C16, S10, I15.

TSP website shows even percentages this morning as above, no warnings trade went through as planned.

We'll see how things adjust after today and try <1% again tomorrow.

 

[KevinD]

You have 2 choices here.

If you think today will be positive, you can let it ride and raise your percentages tomorrow by less than 1%.

If you think today will be a down day but tomorrow will be up, you can enter the same percentages again so that tomorrow your percentages will be even and you can raise them after the following days action. In other words...this morning your percentages are G28, F31, C16, S10, I15. You can enter the same allocation again and you will have .00 again for start of business tomorrow...but your shares will change.

Clear as mud?

 

[KevinD]

The second option accomplishes 2 things.

If today is up you lock in todays gains.

If today is down you have .00 in case tomorrow is up.

 

[burrocrat]

so let's see if i got this straight. the % shown on the tsp website is the % of value/dollars not shares?

so if a fund goes up one day, the % will increase because the value of those shares increased, works in reverse too, or more likely some combination of above if you are in multiple funds that day? # of shares don't change when you don't make a transfer, just the value of those shares relative to your overall dollars in tsp?

 

[Birchtree]

And the more shares you accumulate the better retirement waiting.

 

[burrocrat]

so if a fund goes up on a given day and you <1 reset your % back to a round number, you have essentially sold a minor portion of your portfolio for a profit and taken some off the table, reallocating into the funds that are now a bit cheaper?

if you increase your % by <1 up to the next even number then you are trying to get more in on the way up because you think you see a winner and want more of the good stuff?

 

[burrocrat]

i thought about doing the math on this, but realized i was getting deep in the decimal places real fast, best guess is it comes out to less than one percent? aptly named strategery there.

see, i can learn from the widom of others without hitting the wall, often more than once. look ma, still no hands (although occasionally less teeth).

i'm still going with my original plan to move the max possible out of G for the rest of the month, just to see for myself, sometimes you just gotta push the big red button labeled 'no' and find out what happens.

 

[burrocrat]

And the more shares you accumulate the better retirement waiting.

she it cuz, it was'nt till a few years ago when i hopped on the fed bus that i could even consider actually retiring with income (just don't have much faith in social security the way it's been managed).

i'd always heard about it but didn't think it could happen to normal folks, figured we just keep working till it's over, and get our reward in the end.

pretty sure we all still gonna get it in the end, sooner rather than later if we don't audit the fed, seeing it in black and white ought to get some folks hoping for change.

saw an article where benspanke said something along the lines of 'it could be dangerous to give congress control of monetary policy' or something like that. excuse me, but wasn't it the constitution that relegated the 'coining of money' solely to the congress? when did that change? just what do ben and timmy think they're doing up there? and are we safer for it?

well let's see, i got in rant about the fed, war tax, and insurance all in just a few posts, that ought to be enough for one day. i feel better now.

 

[grandma]

when I first tried doing the <1, I was trying to type in .99 - the site wouldn't accept the fraction - but just putting in `1' did what they wanted. I also wanted to put `1' into a fund that was empty, but TSP refused it, I couldn't add 1 to 0

That is the main reason I have at times left just `1' in the other 4 funds when moving the 96% into G.

As for increasing the actual numer of shares in your account, purchasing thru your pay check allotment is the only way. Once retired, what you have is all you've got... And once TSP starts paying you monthly, that number decreases -spread across the board, not all from G.

 

[burrocrat]

1% trade #2:

TSP site says i'm at: G27.82, F30.80, C16.11, S10.04, I15.23.

New allocation: G25, F31, C17, S11, I16.

 

[burrocrat]

G25, F31, C17, S11, I16.

trade went throught ok again, will try again on friday, then's it resets to december full slate of options next tuesday.

does two count as a full state? when you've been getting by on crumbs, croutons are a feast.

happy thanksgiving, share some with the less fortunate, we all have a lot to be thankful for.

 

[Boghie]

when I first tried doing the <1, I was trying to type in .99 - the site wouldn't accept the fraction - but just putting in `1' did what they wanted. I also wanted to put `1' into a fund that was empty, but TSP refused it, I couldn't add 1 to 0

That is the main reason I have at times left just `1' in the other 4 funds when moving the 96% into G.

As for increasing the actual numer of shares in your account, purchasing thru your pay check allotment is the only way. Once retired, what you have is all you've got... And once TSP starts paying you monthly, that number decreases -spread across the board, not all from G.

Burrocrat and Grandma,

Don't forget about the bread crumbs in the L Funds.

The 2040 and 2030 funds in particular have a large equity position. You can perform '<1%' trades into them as well. That means that you can move up to 8% out of the G Fund into F/C/S/I/2040/2030/2020/2010.

Not bad when you are completely stuck under the 1970's era IFT limit

 

[burrocrat]

11/27, TSP site says i'm at: G24.89, F30.89, C17.00, S11.00, I16.22.

what's the chance that two of the funds i want to <1% move into are exactly xx.00% today? it's a conspiracy i tell you, they're onto me.

i'll pick up C and S on monday, unless theres another miracle even close today.

New allocation; G24, F31, C17, S11, I17.

 

[burrocrat]

what's the chance that two of the funds i want to <1% move into are exactly xx.00% today?

i know there are a lot of smart folks out there can tell me the answer, but i'm going to take a shot at it myself, then tell me where i went wrong. the big equations get me all confused so i got to think of it like a story problem.

1 in 100 chance any one fund finishes at a particular decimal percentage. 5 funds in the bucket. 2 funds finish even.

100 x 100 x 100 x 100 x 100 = 10,000,000,000 / 2 = 5,000,000,000.

wow one in 5 billion times that gonna happen, forget the doorbuster sales today, i putting it all in lotto tickets.

 

[Frixxxx]

i know there are a lot of smart folks out there can tell me the answer...

Assuming they report it properly!:laugh: more likely....0 :laugh:

 

[burrocrat]

According to TSP website: "Your account balance, based on the most recent share prices as of close of business 11/27/2009, is shown below."

just like i set it last trade, C and S stay at 17 and 11, i didn't change these percentages from their start that day, but apparently when you reallocate 1 your reallocate all, started at xx.00 and ended at xx.oo.

i got 3 trades across in 10 days for net results:

G 30 - 6 = 24
F 30 + 1 = 31
C 15 + 2 = 17
S 10 + 1 = 11
I 15 + 2 = 17

Could have moved more out of G if i had some in the L funds, not sure it would make much of a difference.

December here i come.

 

[grandma]

Burrocrat and Grandma,

The 2040 and 2030 funds in particular have a large equity position. You can perform '<1%' trades into them as well. That means that you can move up to 8% out of the G Fund into F/C/S/I/2040/2030/2020/2010.

Thanx for that info - that will be fun to try - When I Next get a chance!
That would be a way to `put your toes into the water' I guess....
I think my tri-focals must blot out the L funds -
I never even see them !!

 

[phil]

The F fund made some gains Friday. I actually took some exposure on Friday, after I saw the losses. They may extend tomorrow, and I'm still largely risk averse to the market, but this drop may signify a small rebound.

11/27, TSP site says i'm at: G24.89, F30.89, C17.00, S11.00, I16.22.

what's the chance that two of the funds i want to <1% move into are exactly xx.00% today? it's a conspiracy i tell you, they're onto me.

i'll pick up C and S on monday, unless theres another miracle even close today.

New allocation; G24, F31, C17, S11, I17.