burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

I've had more out of the market lately than i prefer, looking for a spot to get back in next month. The F fund hasn't performed as well as i had hoped, when stocks are down it usually follows and doesn't return the same upside, but i just have a hard time pulling all out to G.

No offense to those that are in equities, i have some positions in other accounts that i don't want to see fall and a good bit of tsp is in CSI too, but i'm hoping for a few major sell off days, get the tears flowing and the holes puckering you know, can't wait to buy low here.

 

[phil]

Don't wait too long on the equities. On the F fund: it usually has an inverse relationship with the market, but now with so much capital being pumped in, there may be structural problems.

Overall, F hasn't done too badly in the past year....all things considered.

I nudged in a little bit on Friday after I saw HSI plunge 4%, but you're right, maybe I should've waited. I'm not nearly as exposed as you right now.

I also think the Saudis will shore up the Dubai banks.....for now.

 

[Boghie]

Don't wait too long on the equities. On the F fund: it usually has an inverse relationship with the market, but now with so much capital being pumped in, there may be structural problems.

Overall, F hasn't done too badly in the past year....all things considered.

I nudged in a little bit on Friday after I saw HSI plunge 4%, but you're right, maybe I should've waited. I'm not nearly as exposed as you right now.

I also think the Saudis will shore up the Dubai banks.....for now.

Phil,

This may surprise you and the folks here...

My guess is that the Saudis are effectively broke. They are kleptocrats. They don't know how to invest money to make money. They like to build and buy big shiny trinkets and stuff. My guess is that they lost a ton last year. This year they didn't make it back. There is no transparency there

Dubai is going to collapse if this 'recession' lasts a few months. And, we are using less and less oil every day.

It is going to be a very hard decade. Get out of debt. That helps in deflation and gives you opportunities early in inflation. I think we are heading into a period of rising interest rates and deflation. That is the worst of all worlds for folks who owe on variable interest rates.

 

[Boghie]

Quicken...

Burrocrat,

I got your question on Quicken and answered it in this post...

I was thinking of cross posting here, but the context would have been lost.

Basically, it is interesting you are mentioning Quicken. It was a Google/Yahoo search on managing the TSP account in Quicken that got me into TSPTalk a number of years ago.

Anyway, hope Santa fits the thing in a stocking.

 

[burrocrat]

I forget whodunnit, but i read a post a while back about if you are mostly invested at the first of the month, then it's like having three trades, catch early gains - one out - two back in - and can still run to G if needed.

The flip side of the coin is if you are mostly out at the beginning of the month and want to get back to full trading flexibility, then you have to go a month with basically one trade back in, any more and you are moving out of the market again for the rest of the month and start all over.

December is usually up and i think there's room to go, but i'm not ready to commit yet, budgeting the last trades of the year.

I want to start 2010 with maximum trading freedom so i can get one of them free hats. I rarely wear hats but i do have an impressive collection of projects i've worked on, places i've been a part of, etc.

I'd prefer no tsp trade limits, being able to scalp a few % here and there, but that ain't gonna happen, so my goal next year is to not lose money and get a free hat.

gotta have a hobby.

 

[grandma]

Burrocrat - :notrust:where did you get permission for that atavar?:suspicious:


okay - I'm working my way thru `new posts' and now see the trend here - good thinking, guys~

 

[Elgallo]

WTG with the Avatar amigo! Lately I feel as if my boat has lost it's rudder!

 

[burrocrat]

KevinD had the idea first, i just latched on to it, seemed fitting. I notice we both got 'banned' in the ban game thread, lol. Got busted for shoplifting before i even left the store with the goods, i was just trying it on to see how it fit, you know 'walk a mile in my shoes' kinda thing.

Funny though, as soon as i started using the avatar i got this overwhelming and pervasive feeling of market optimism and haven't been able to shake it yet.

No disrespect meant to Birchtree or the Moderators, he can have it back, just keeping it warm for him, i miss our bullish friend.

 

[grandma]

KevinD had the idea first, i just latched on to it, seemed fitting. I notice we both got 'banned' in the ban game thread, lol. Got busted for shoplifting before i even left the store with the goods...
Funny though, as soon as i started using the avatar i got this overwhelming and pervasive feeling of market optimism and haven't been able to shake it yet.
.... just keeping it warm for him, i miss our bullish friend.

Hey ! I ran right back to apologize with an edit when I read in another thread what you were doing! & besides, it was a curious, `what are you doing?' type thing... and no, he doesn't get pm's cuz I tried that myself!
If that market optimism turns into positive results in the market, maybe we should all change for the remainder of his serving time!!

But (school's in) let us not forget, unlike the stories with Tiger, et al, we may never know the full of events that led up to this, regardless of how we interpret what we see from here. And why should we? Moderators are charged with duties, doubting their sincerity & judgement only on that we see doesn't get it. And sometimes offenses may have disappeared before more than a very few see them..... & there may be more to things than just postings... (school's out)

 

[burrocrat]

I've been waiting for a spot to jump back in and it's looks like we're getting close. I would like grab a good move higher for the end of the month and start 2010 mostly invested in equities.

The recent sideways action is drifting to the bottom of the range, i would like to see the S&P500 to break lower and close around 1080 in a gentle slide and hold there a day or two, then let the celebration begin.

If it gets there in a hurry early in a trading day i think it will pop right back up and recover by the bell with the drop still to come, if it eases into a lower gear then i'm going to put the hammer down. I'm pretty sure i'm moving in, but % allocations are undecided, the more volatile the move down the less aggressive i will be.

The plan is to decide by noon ET which day is going to finish 1-1.5% lower and get more shares at a discount, anything less than 1% means drop is still to come, not looking for a big scary 3% drop, that may indicate a breakdown and would mean i've got it all wrong.

I think seasonality might be a good indicator here, but the charts seem out of sync, events happening a bit earlier than average, the window for this trade is good thru friday.

I just don't see a big selloff coming for a bit, expect it move up in the near future so i don't have to get it exactly right, but it sure would be nice.

 

[burrocrat]

New Allocation: 0G, 20F, 40C, 20S, 20I.

just couldn't wait any longer, hope it closes down a bit today to get a bargain on these shares, looking to be in for the santa clause rally.

 

[burrocrat]

didn't get the lower close i was looking for yesterday, but i still like the move.

i'm in and looking for a run up here. maybe today is the day. feels like something big is going to happen.

hey, it can only go up, down, or sideways. so that's a 2 in 3 chance i don't lose money here.

not bad odds, should come out in my favor, oh, let's see, 66.67% of the time?

 

[burrocrat]

check out UNG or GAZ, this thing's about to blow.

 

[burrocrat]

new allocation: 0G, 0F, 40C, 30S, 30I.

buy lo then ho ho ho.

 

[burrocrat]

off to a great start today, i'm thinking of taking some off the table if it still looks like we might get the positive finish before the trading deadline.

I'm a little nervous about the big jumps, and something just feels wrong with the timing on the santa rally this time around.

out of tranfers this month and i haven't tried the multiple trade migration to G yet, might head that direction though and lock in some gains for the year.

i want to finish the year up 15% cause if you say it real fast it kinda sounds like fifty, and that ain't a bad thing.

 

[burrocrat]

New allocation: 30G, 0F, 30C, 20S, 20I.

migrating to G, reduce equity exposures, nervous about holiday volatility.

3rd transfer this month, can only increase G outside of <1% moves, leaving some in case i'm wrong.

If we keep getting the santa rally i plan to pull more out of CSI, if it heads down meaningfully i may hold here.

 

[burrocrat]

new allocation: 40F, 0F, 20C, 20S, 20I.

going to keep taking a little profits out of equity funds on up days, locking in gains for the year, minimizing exposure to holiday volitility.

i can't give a good reason why, but i just have a bad feeling about the next 2 weeks and don't want to get hit.

leaving a little in to capture last legs of rally, the higher it goes the more i'll keep moving out. if/when it drops is should have my powder dry to take a shot at it, after the 1st of the year of course, out of trades but to G now.

 

[burrocrat]

new allocation: 60G, 0F, 10C, 10S, 20I.

walk, don't run, for the exits, no need to panic, (although i did quicken the pace of my retreat a bit).

 

[Boghie]

new allocation: 60G, 0F, 10C, 10S, 20I.

walk, don't run, for the exits, no need to panic, (although i did quicken the pace of my retreat a bit).

Burrocrat,

Watch out for quick trading. This year isn't last year. After the March 2009 lows we have been living in a very nice market with very minor corrections. I have left much mulla on the table by thinking too much. It is best to let the market decide - you will only lose a little of your gains since the moves will probably be rather small and rather slow.

Last year, when the market was dumping 5% - 8% per day that advice wouldn't have been worth much, eh...

But, you have already survived the once in a lifetime crash. The next ones will be easier to see, to time, and to adjust to.

 

[burrocrat]

hey zues de crisco, you see that volume today, someone's gonna get greased here.

I'm skeered it's me, i wanted to see a continued sell off from last week, but that ain't happening, here we go.

now i'm mostly out with little upside potential, but i hate buying the funds on up days, and i couldn't justify using one of my two move chasing. i thought about a contrarian play for the next couple weeks, but the dam F fund is up too.

oh god, they're playing trumpet music and falling all over themselves kissing each others hind ends on cnbc.

i guess i'm stuck here on the wall watching the band for now, but i'm gonna ask that pretty girl to dance here right quick, just as soon as she stumbles.

can you spell irrational exuberance?