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burrocrat's Account Talk
- Thread starter burrocrat
- Start date
burrocrat
Well-known member
Looks like we're in for a rough ride today. This should be a good test of whether the sideline money really believes they need to get in at any opportunity, or if they actually prefer the comfort of hiding their heads under the covers.
Where we end today is less important to me than how we get there. Straight line or a little push-pull? Should be informative. How fast can the pundits change their tune from green shoots to i told you so? Enquiring minds want to know.
Where we end today is less important to me than how we get there. Straight line or a little push-pull? Should be informative. How fast can the pundits change their tune from green shoots to i told you so? Enquiring minds want to know.
burrocrat
Well-known member
Well i missed it by two weeks last time i made a trade, this time i was only off one day. I know it's a small data set, but hey any two points make a straight lineline, now we're headed somewhere.
I know they say trying to time the market is a fools game, but who are we kidding, deliberately shifting funds to take advantage (or defend against) market moves is just that. So what is it called when doing it with a retirement account, with limited general offerings, and a two trade limit as a handicap?
I guess the trick is to find a balance in there somewhere, obviously can't chase every wind that blows today, probably best to focus on a little bit longer time frame and position for a few weeks at a time, but then the risk is getting too complacent and leaving it sit in the wrong place too long, that didn't work out so well for me last year.
I don't have much faith in the G fund getting where i want to go so I justify being in the stock funds as a long term strategy. I hope i can do better than the 20% each allocation over the long haul, everything else would be gravy.
A question for others who make regular trades in tsp: do you swing for the fences or are you just trying to improve the average a bit? and why?
I know they say trying to time the market is a fools game, but who are we kidding, deliberately shifting funds to take advantage (or defend against) market moves is just that. So what is it called when doing it with a retirement account, with limited general offerings, and a two trade limit as a handicap?
I guess the trick is to find a balance in there somewhere, obviously can't chase every wind that blows today, probably best to focus on a little bit longer time frame and position for a few weeks at a time, but then the risk is getting too complacent and leaving it sit in the wrong place too long, that didn't work out so well for me last year.
I don't have much faith in the G fund getting where i want to go so I justify being in the stock funds as a long term strategy. I hope i can do better than the 20% each allocation over the long haul, everything else would be gravy.
A question for others who make regular trades in tsp: do you swing for the fences or are you just trying to improve the average a bit? and why?
Boghie
Well-known member
Normally, I use three allocations that I set for myself after reading Ric Edelman's 'The Lies About Money'. I have an aggressive allocation, a normal allocation, and a conservative allocation:
Aggressive: 0%G, 0%F, 50%C, 25%S, 25%I - Exp Ret = 9%, StdDev = 11%
Standard: 0%G, 20%F, 40%C, 20%S, 20%I - Exp Ret = 8%, StdDev = 10%
Conservative: 10%G, 30%F, 30%C, 15%S, 15%I - Exp Ret = 7%, StdDev = 8%
I have jiggered some of Edelman's allocations to balance risk and return a little bit - and to make things easy on the eyes.
But, to answer your question - I just try to improve the average a bit.
Last year was a once in a lifetime event. It was a Depression event. We might not be though it yet - that is for the historians to determine. The best one can do is mitigate losses and have at least something in the game that can grow if the game has changed. The folks who got rich in the 30's didn't do it in a 'G Fund' equivalent.:nuts:
burrocrat
Well-known member
Finally, the expected drop and stop a few % later. Glad i'm in, missed it by a couple of days though.
Lots of action in hard currency. Anyone notice the lack of in "cash for gold, sell your ex's unwanted jewerly" adds late at night? It's over, or at least on pause. By the time someone on tv tells you about it it's yesterday's news, and if someone on tv quits talking about it it's history.
Sound logic behing the hole up manuever, but the majority do not want to live in a world like that and will do almost anything to prevent it.
Commodities down, dollar steady, stocks up. Lot's of girls need new dresses and shoes, or at least think they do.
Let's see some volume and let this thing roll. I'm in and staying in short term.
Lots of action in hard currency. Anyone notice the lack of in "cash for gold, sell your ex's unwanted jewerly" adds late at night? It's over, or at least on pause. By the time someone on tv tells you about it it's yesterday's news, and if someone on tv quits talking about it it's history.
Sound logic behing the hole up manuever, but the majority do not want to live in a world like that and will do almost anything to prevent it.
Commodities down, dollar steady, stocks up. Lot's of girls need new dresses and shoes, or at least think they do.
Let's see some volume and let this thing roll. I'm in and staying in short term.
burrocrat
Well-known member
dam gold bugs got the best of me again. how can someone pay north of $1k for that stuff? one ounce! is it that bad out there?
getting nervous and looking for a spot to bail. almost pulled it out last friday, saw the up in the morning and thought about selling high, but had a client actually keep their appointment, and by the time it was over it was too late. didn't play out the way i thought but would've got out even and been more comfortable coming into the new week.
outlook = short term: nervous, mid term: optimistic, long term pessimistic. what does that say?
getting nervous and looking for a spot to bail. almost pulled it out last friday, saw the up in the morning and thought about selling high, but had a client actually keep their appointment, and by the time it was over it was too late. didn't play out the way i thought but would've got out even and been more comfortable coming into the new week.
outlook = short term: nervous, mid term: optimistic, long term pessimistic. what does that say?
burrocrat
Well-known member
possible plays (2 trades left still this month):
short term: 50G, 50 F, duck and cover now! re-assess in a couple of weeks.
mid term: hold for a few days and hope for a mini run, then back out to conservative mix, wait for a chance to hit it with last trade this month.
long term: 30F, 70I, plant and pray until 2010. not much faith there but god please help me.
gonna have to get off the fence here soon.
short term: 50G, 50 F, duck and cover now! re-assess in a couple of weeks.
mid term: hold for a few days and hope for a mini run, then back out to conservative mix, wait for a chance to hit it with last trade this month.
long term: 30F, 70I, plant and pray until 2010. not much faith there but god please help me.
gonna have to get off the fence here soon.
stingrayiii
Member
Gold bugs. Got to love em!
Just a word, I bought gold when it was around $350 - $400 an ounce, and sold around $1000 earlier this year. "Held for about 4 - 5 yrs" I really did get into gold, but gold bugs really don't sell, they hoard the stuff. And they think it can go up to $10k easy. I disagree. We will see some rise in gold, but it wont go insane, unless our government collapses. Or it becomes the next bubble!
After I made my profit in that I moved my tsp account over to I fund, and have made killer gains. The reasoning is the dollar is weak and other people are putting their money in safe areas. Yen?? And for me I see so much spending and no way to pay off our debt. So I have to move my money either in commodities or international stocks. Right now I am betting international stocks.
As you can tell I hold for the long term, and I like your idea of 30f and 70I, right now I have been in 100I for awhile now. So I might take some off and buy some F. What do you think the F fund will do?
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp
Click the Ignore everything but the dollar video.
He explains it in a nutshell!
Just a word, I bought gold when it was around $350 - $400 an ounce, and sold around $1000 earlier this year. "Held for about 4 - 5 yrs" I really did get into gold, but gold bugs really don't sell, they hoard the stuff. And they think it can go up to $10k easy. I disagree. We will see some rise in gold, but it wont go insane, unless our government collapses. Or it becomes the next bubble!
After I made my profit in that I moved my tsp account over to I fund, and have made killer gains. The reasoning is the dollar is weak and other people are putting their money in safe areas. Yen?? And for me I see so much spending and no way to pay off our debt. So I have to move my money either in commodities or international stocks. Right now I am betting international stocks.
As you can tell I hold for the long term, and I like your idea of 30f and 70I, right now I have been in 100I for awhile now. So I might take some off and buy some F. What do you think the F fund will do?
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp
Click the Ignore everything but the dollar video.
He explains it in a nutshell!
burrocrat
Well-known member
burrocrat
Well-known member
Maybe someone can shed some light on this for me? I'm trying to find the mix of F and I that mitigates down or sideways days but provides upside exposure.
I don't base my sense of self worth by comparing to others, so that's not the motivation for this example, but i think there may be a lesson in here somewhere and i'd like to understand it. I will inform The Lady that I am using her results to that end.
09/12/09 tracker returns:
F -0.16%C +0.63% S +0.96% I -0.74%
me: F10, C30, S30, I30
Lady: F00, C26, S37, I37
Both are up +0.24% today.
Of course the proportion of FI to CS matters here, but 1:3 F:I seems to cancel out, yet achieve same gains as a more 'all in' allocation.
Maybe the little bit in F could offset drops in the I, but if I shoots up could still catch some additional gains? Not sure how this might play out if CS are more active one way or the other.
I might be approaching this the wrong way or from a narrow perspective, but i mean well. Just trying to get a glimpse of the big picture.
Any thoughts on this matter?
I don't base my sense of self worth by comparing to others, so that's not the motivation for this example, but i think there may be a lesson in here somewhere and i'd like to understand it. I will inform The Lady that I am using her results to that end.
09/12/09 tracker returns:
F -0.16%C +0.63% S +0.96% I -0.74%
me: F10, C30, S30, I30
Lady: F00, C26, S37, I37
Both are up +0.24% today.
Of course the proportion of FI to CS matters here, but 1:3 F:I seems to cancel out, yet achieve same gains as a more 'all in' allocation.
Maybe the little bit in F could offset drops in the I, but if I shoots up could still catch some additional gains? Not sure how this might play out if CS are more active one way or the other.
I might be approaching this the wrong way or from a narrow perspective, but i mean well. Just trying to get a glimpse of the big picture.
Any thoughts on this matter?
burrocrat
Well-known member
New allocation: 40F, 15C, 15S, 30I.
Getting a little nervous here, moving 1/2 of C & S to F, leaving I alone to catch yesterday's bounce. Hope to sell the stock funds high at COB and hole up for a bit. I know there might be some big action the rest of the week, squeezing the shorts, but i'm afraid i could end up losing my shorts if i hang in there any longer.
No logical analysis behind it other than this morning on the radio I heard a couple of songs that take me way back. Carole King was just beltin' it out, 'I feel the earth move under my feet', maybe it's the bulls starting their stampede, but i'm concerned it's more like someone getting ready to pull the rug. And Wings with the classic 'band on the run', i took that as a cue that it was time to fly.
Still one trade left this month.
Getting a little nervous here, moving 1/2 of C & S to F, leaving I alone to catch yesterday's bounce. Hope to sell the stock funds high at COB and hole up for a bit. I know there might be some big action the rest of the week, squeezing the shorts, but i'm afraid i could end up losing my shorts if i hang in there any longer.
No logical analysis behind it other than this morning on the radio I heard a couple of songs that take me way back. Carole King was just beltin' it out, 'I feel the earth move under my feet', maybe it's the bulls starting their stampede, but i'm concerned it's more like someone getting ready to pull the rug. And Wings with the classic 'band on the run', i took that as a cue that it was time to fly.
Still one trade left this month.
burrocrat
Well-known member
Interesting action today, bears pushed back each attempted rise and managed to end it lower. With all the much ballyhoo'd upward pressure waiting in the wings can this continue?
The expirations are skewing the outcome to the positive, next week should be exciting.
Funny how my hopes for the market change depending on how much i'm in the stock funds. Let's get this -5% (or more) thing over with already so we can move forward. I think it's coming, but that could just be wishful thinking.
And i have one trade left, i would hate to finish the month without using it. Just because i can doesn't mean i should, but i resent with the whole trade limit thing and like to get all that's coming to me (careful what you ask for, i'm not ready for the judgement yet). Maybe i should see another counselor about that, but the last one dropped me, said i was making her crazy.
The expirations are skewing the outcome to the positive, next week should be exciting.
Funny how my hopes for the market change depending on how much i'm in the stock funds. Let's get this -5% (or more) thing over with already so we can move forward. I think it's coming, but that could just be wishful thinking.
And i have one trade left, i would hate to finish the month without using it. Just because i can doesn't mean i should, but i resent with the whole trade limit thing and like to get all that's coming to me (careful what you ask for, i'm not ready for the judgement yet). Maybe i should see another counselor about that, but the last one dropped me, said i was making her crazy.
burrocrat
Well-known member
New allocation: 0G, 0F, 30C, 30S, 40I.
Gonna bite, hope this ain't a head fake this morning, want to get more shares at a discount. Last day of the month and put it all in looking for a short term bounce to end the week thurs and fri.
Almost like having 3 trades in october, can get right back out and still put it in one more time next month, always with the option of migrating to G after that if things deteriorate.
What we need here is a good ole fashioned sell off that scares the jeebeesus out of most folk.
Hang on.
Gonna bite, hope this ain't a head fake this morning, want to get more shares at a discount. Last day of the month and put it all in looking for a short term bounce to end the week thurs and fri.
Almost like having 3 trades in october, can get right back out and still put it in one more time next month, always with the option of migrating to G after that if things deteriorate.
What we need here is a good ole fashioned sell off that scares the jeebeesus out of most folk.
Hang on.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Your trade request today goes in for October.....you'll only have one more trade after that, until November!
Silverbird
Well-known member
He did it before noon, and it's still September, so doesn't it count against September and not October? 
WorkFE
Well-known member
Not what their own literature says. I am assuming they did the IFT prior to noon.
"The transfer counts in the calendar month we process it, not in the month you submit it. For example, if you were to submit your transfer request at 12:15 p.m. on July 31, that would be after our noon cut-off for same-day processing. Therefore, we would not process your request until August 1 (the next business day), and it would count against your IFT limit for August."
"The transfer counts in the calendar month we process it, not in the month you submit it. For example, if you were to submit your transfer request at 12:15 p.m. on July 31, that would be after our noon cut-off for same-day processing. Therefore, we would not process your request until August 1 (the next business day), and it would count against your IFT limit for August."
