burrocrat's Account Talk

oh no, i had to have 'the talk' with my teenage son this evening. this is not good. we have had 'the talk' before and he is no stranger to how things work, we are pretty open about how real life happens, his half sister in another state is 16yo and expecting this summer so he will be an uncle soon, and his mom is not exactly the best 'leadership by example' in this scenario.

anyways, i knew something was up because i can tell when he is not revealing the whole truth and something has changed the last few weeks. i usually just let him trap himself in his own contradictions and let him accidentally tell me the whole story, but i thought this was maybe something i should dig for and try to find out. so i waited for the right time and just asked him 'so what is your girlfriend's name?' he just blurted out 'josie' and then instantly regretted it, but i had what i needed to know.

some backstory... he came home with some marker slashes on the back of his neck last week, boys don't do that, and these were purple, those washable color marker school supply things. how does a boy get those stripes on his neck, not even crooked like in a hurry, a girl was chasing him, she marked him like a game of i gotcha tag. so i knew for sure a few days ago. so anyways i had him point out 'josie' to me, and had to bite my tongue, don't say 'and the pussycats' not this time don't say it dad.

about a month ago when i was waiting to pick him up from school i saw these two girls chatting out front, both wearing black yoga pants and their struttin boots. the tall bigger goth gal was dolled up and my first thought was 'oh honey, a 14 year old girl should not know how to put on eye shadow like that yet'. and the little blonde strumpet next to her was even bigger trouble, obviously a nice girl but playin off her 'bad girl' friend to take the heat while she flirts and never gets in trouble. i know about these things. it's like good cop bad cop game.

so this weekend he wants to go to the park with his friend 'xavier' and he explains it is just xavier and his sister and her best friend and some other kids from school. i drop him off at the park and the group is there and he has instructions to communicate by phone and be ready to go at 5:00 and no funny stuff. when i pick him up he and xavier and these two girls are walking across the park obviously very familiar with each other and relaxed. 'oh, so who are those kids son?' that's xavier and his sister and 'josie' he says. oh ****, the little blonde tart is josie! this is bad! and the knows-too-much-already goth gal is his friends sister! this is really bad.

so we didn't have 'the talk' when we got home, we had 'THE TALK'.
 
so i just told it to him straight... 'son, you need to hear this, my dad was not around at this time in my life and my mom knew what them girls were up to but couldn't talk about these things so i am just going to tell what i wish i didn't have to learn the hard way, listen up'.

my instructions to him were:

1) do not, under any circumstances go with those two girls anywhere alone, make sure xavier is always there with you guys. if you do end up alone with those girls do not agree to show them your weiner, because you will end up with your pants around your ankles and neither one of them will take their top off then. make at least one of them show her boobies first, and not just a flash, top off. do not fall for this trick.

2) do not, and i am dead serious now, do not go anywhere alone with just one of those girls, because i am not ready to be a grandpa. you are not going anywhere alone, especially at her house, with a girl, got it?

i also told him we need to go to the store after our haircuts on saturday and get him some condoms. (he answered perfectly 'dad! that is not going to happen, i don't need condoms!' whew, good. i dread the day he answers that question differently and says 'dad, i need more condoms'.

life is strange and totally different than when i was a kid.

josie the good girl/tricky strumpet is his girlfriend and marking him with her marker. this is not good. he is such a nice kid with a big heart. he is going to get crushed by these girls they make these days.
 
wise dads pay attention, b. good for you.

you might want to withhold judgment on the 'wise' part. but i am a practical dad. and his reaction at this point was spot on so we are safe for a bit. but i don't pull punches either and he is on notice. i know son. listen to me. and he knows i know. so this is as good a time as any to start this phase of life, if there is ever a good time for these things. you got to act when you see it or you quickly end up too far behind the curve to make a difference.

i am glad they don't write books about these things. and i promise to never write one either.
 
there's three types of people in the world
those who don't know it happened
those who wonder what happened
and people from street that make things happen.

chicky check.
 
Rules were made to be broken.

It's better to buy your kid a box of condoms, then a pack of pampers....
 
Teenagers are a real trip, I've witnessed it over and over. The truth is they will keep at least one step ahead of their parents, don't underestimate them. One of the hardest things to do is keep them out of trouble. You've heard of the Terrible Twos, well that isn't beans when compared to raising a teen.
 
10 Things Highly Intuitive People Do Differently

Mindfulness can also connect you to your intuition by boosting self-knowledge. A 2013 study published in the journal Perspectives on Psychological Science showed that mindfulness — defined as “paying attention to one’s current experience in a non-judgmental way” — may help us to better understand our own personalities.

this is starting to get close, approaching the 'secret of investing', if you ask me.

mindfulness. that is golden advice right there.
 

dang, i thought i was posting the lead-in commercial that last one but got the crux of the matter instead.

oh well, both relevant.

happy trails and good intuition.

don't be afraid to follow it. but try to pay other folks as little as possible for their bs advice.
 
burros-ark 160508

burros-ark update: this week continued the backwards slide down, and the riskier the asset the worse they have been doing. plus we have the ‘sell in may’ seasonality to contend with now. from a purely visual perspective looking at the graph, it seems we’ll need to see some bottoming action before it heads back up and there doesn’t appear to be any dutch boy out there with big enough fingers to plug the holes in this dyke right now. the arkers seem to be faring alright though, not any massive pain but a few do have some ground to make up, and i’m sure most would like to be performing better. this investing stuff is hard and unpredictable.

View attachment 38204

burros-ark signal: hold. (confirm previous previous sell). this is not a market that is rewarding risk. f-fund bond safety has produced good yields all year, the c-fund has never trailed the s-fund, and the i-fund is taking it in the shorts. maybe something is really wrong with the world and we just don’t want to admit it? hold. the political landscape is not helping matters either. i can’t tell if the market is unhappy that donaldo is the republican champion, or afraid that hillary might actually win for the democrats. but either way, the uncertainty is hurting things. on the bright side, el vira is holding up well and there is some appetite among the arkers for risk. and exposure is slowly returning with more willing to hold some long positions through the bumps in the road. this may be nearing a good spot for a quick score if we can get some serious overselling on a couple of bad days, but i don’t think it would be wise to hold the line very long, just play the bounce. burros-ark will continue to sit in g-fund at least until a new signal is generated next week. hold.

View attachment 38205

burros-ark stuff: since it is mother’s day, i should probably take this opportunity to apologize (again) to my mom for all the hell i raised when i was younger. but since she has been in heaven for many years now, hopefully she has already forgiven me. you did a good job mom, especially considering what you had to work with. that being said, it is kind of awkward having your mom in heaven where she can look down at you at any time. for instance, i have had to limit my sexual activities to only indoors, preferably in a room with tinfoil taped to the ceiling or else it starts feeling a bit creepy. and i can only go skinny dipping on dark, cloudy, moonless nights now, which pretty much takes all the fun out of skinny dipping. but we all find our ways to compensate i guess, you do what you do and you pay for your sins, no sense worrying about what might have been. mom’s have a tough job and it should be recognized. i am a single parent so i have a small idea of what all they do for others in addition to taking care of their own responsibilities, and i can barely keep up with the basics. there ain’t no homemade caramel rolls or backyard birthday party treasure hunts or scrapbooks in our world, let’s just put it that way. so thanks to all the mothers out there for the difference they make in not just their own children’s lives, but the difference that makes in the world. happy mother’s day.
 
TOTALLY AGREE NORM AND JTH. TEENAGERS WILL TELL YOU YES YES AND MAYBE EVEN MEAN IT....BUT AS SOON AS THEY ARE IN THE COMPANY OF THEIR FRIENDS, ESPECIALLY GIRL FRIENDS - THEIR OTHER BRAIN TAKES OVER, AND LETS FACE IT...WHEN IT COMES TO TEENAGE HORMONES...LIKE THE BORG SAY "RESISTANCE IS FUTILE". BEEN THERE DONE THAT....I WILL PRAY FOR YOU BURRO..

FS
 
ok i am calling this one early. it is nice 50-60's spring weather and i have plans. put this week in the books.

burros-ark 160515

burros-ark update: more downward action this week, but not in a convincing fashion. sure, it looks to be bottoming out, but the charts are not there yet. in fact, sentiment is actually ahead of the charts this time with folks going conservative before any big painful moves. hmmm. we got crazy politics stuff, poor retail numbers, you can’t believe anything anybody tells you or represents anymore, and we are all left to our own device. 3 arkers bailed this week, 3 whose moves carry some weight, and all got out. what does that tell us? i’m not sure, i don’t speak for any one of them or anyone else either for that matter, but in aggregate they saw something they didn’t like enough that they moved their money. so that is something to pay attention to. it’s a jungle out there.

View attachment 38242

burros-ark signal: hold. (confirm previous previous previous sell). this is still not a market that is rewarding risk, but it is beginning to recognize fear. this setup is really on the edge of reason, the el vira and exposure numbers are delicious in a screaming contrarian way, a perfect time to strike. the market is begging for a call, but that only usually happens when it is holding a monster hand. the macro events and trends are just getting warmed up, there is much going on in the national and international world that is yet to be decided, this seems a bit early, wait for it to tip its intention. hold. burros-ark stays long g-fund and will not trade what appears to soon to be a narrow window of potential opportunity outside of its weekly trading parameters. too uncertain for a system move, but very close. this is hero or zero stuff here, the right move could be an incredible score, but the wrong move could be devastating. turtle up buttercup, pull that neck in a bit, going hungry and missing a meal is better than becoming something biggers lunch. hold.

View attachment 38243

burros-ark stuff: all that said… there is something building and it is probably what we least expect. burrocrat personal account (not the burros-ark system) is just itching to pull its trigger. but it better be quick and good. same rules as last week, it looks like it wants to bottom but it is not there yet, and if it happens it will be lightning fast. i may move my money in if i see the right sudden selloff conditions and then play the bounce, but i won’t be looking to stay long, a few days max. or else i just let this big fish go. extra graphics this week tell the same story, not many beating the market but not many losing too bad either. risk extending out the g- f- c- s- i-funds continuim is saying hole up, money is consolidating in the middle. wait for it to break, something wicked this way comes, too bad we can’t tell if it is bad or good, yet. welcome to the jungle.

View attachment 38244

View attachment 38245
 
usually i try to post the ark update on sunday morning, but this is getting to be summertime and there is just too much going on so i will be posting anytime on the weekends instead in case the outside calls to me and i might not be around inside to post at a regular time.

burros-ark 160522

burros-ark update: hmmm. it looks like maybe last week was the leading indicator and the time to follow the contrarian signal in, small gains but gains none the less. it looked and felt like it was starting to bottom, and sure enough after some volatility it turned out positive. it definitely did a little hop skip and jump, but is it a new place to launch from or the point where it sinks like a stone into the river? now is as good a time as any for a little anatomy lesson i guess, what is this market made of, what direction does it point? i have been watching two arkers in particular for some time, an epic battle of will versus the powers that be, but each in their own separate way. mouse is trying to expand her risk horizon and doing very well at the patience part of it, but just can’t crack it above even, everytime she gets close it takes a little dive. not large losses, but just enough to keep the zero returns goals barely out of reach, that must be frustrating. and blackbird too, from the other side, wants to run with the bulls but wary of the bear and pulls the trigger early, gettinging out when everything shouts stay in. gets above zero and then steps aside while it climbs slowly higher, that is a whole ‘nother brand of frustration. but as often happens, they both end up in the virtually the same place. sometimes the market goes up and sometimes it goes down, seemingly unpredictably, but often we are gonna get screwed. this is a tough game to play, but a fun one. who knows what tomorrow comes?

View attachment 38319

burros-ark signal: buy. yep, got to go with the contrarian flow. there’s so many reasons to fear and stay out, but the setup is just blaring get in, sure it could go bad, but it could also just keep on getting it good. buy. burros-ark will execute a buy and go long market for a trade effective cob monday 05/23/16. el vira risk tolerance is screaming ‘grandma’, and exposure is at near-crisis guaranteed-to-go broke via inflation stock up on alpo ethel g-fund levels. so now is the time to force its hand, show us what you got. like always it is impossible to be sure, no way to know if we can pull this one off, but it is better to strut in confident like ‘i got this dicked’ than it is to cower in the corner and get beat. buy.

View attachment 38320

burros-ark stuff: it is turning to summer, the smell of fresh cut grass in the mornings and neighbors grilling in the evenings, life is pretty and damn good. i just got my new free tsptalk balls in the mail today, and we are going to try to squeeze in another round of golf this fine but breezy weekend. out there my only competition is myself, so maybe i’ll win, but either way i’ll get it up and down, eventually, at times great and at times frustrated, but always lovin it. that is how it goes.
 
Bullocks!!!!!

Been busy getting killed in World Of Tanks. That sound, just as an armor piercing shell slams into your puny little Kraut tank, reminds me so much of my recent trading. In both worlds - that of my Kraut Commander in World of Tanks and in TSPTalk - I have decided it is better to have some patience and keep my head on a swivel. In basketball when you don't know what the heck you are doing it is often best to do nothing. Look around. Actually think things through.

Get my head out of my bullocks...

Semper Fi:smile:
 
yeah, it appears the ark picked a fine entry point yesterday, but as we all know that is only half the battle. i don't want to jinx anything but... it still has to hold not only through the week but over a long holiday weekend before any potential exit for cob tuesday at the earliest. now as much as i like to count chickens, maybe we better sit tight and see if this one hatches. it sure looks like we caught hold of a hot one so far.
 
yeah, it appears the ark picked a fine entry point yesterday, but as we all know that is only half the battle. i don't want to jinx anything but... it still has to hold not only through the week but over a long holiday weekend before any potential exit for cob tuesday at the earliest. now as much as i like to count chickens, maybe we better sit tight and see if this one hatches. it sure looks like we caught hold of a hot one so far.

Best piece of advice I ever got was " It's not where a trade starts, but where it ends that counts." So although it is tempting, let's see where we are next Tuesday. Until then I'm putting my trust in the Ark. :D
 
I'm in and futures are up! :D I read/posted an article some weeks ago regarding the non-sensical nature of the market going up with the crummy fundamentals in conjunction with all the conjuring to keep the market afloat by the central banks, the end game resulting in a 'blow-off top'... massive gains followed by equally massive losses. Not saying we're there, yet, or if that will even happen, but it is interesting to consider. In hindsight, over the past couple of months, each time I moved out the market continued higher, save for this pretty good dip over the last month. I am concerned we may test the head and head back down.
 
Back
Top