burrocrat's Account Talk

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I'm thinking this is a retest of the April high, which I think was in the 2102 area. If it gets taken out, I'll probably head for safety. Timing will be everything on this trade...

Good luck all!!!
 
ravensfan said:
I'm thinking this is a retest of the April high, which I think was in the 2102 area. If it gets taken out, I'll probably head for safety. Timing will be everything on this trade...

Good luck all!!!
Click to expand...

RF, at 2092 SNP is only 10 points away. You moving out today?
 
if i had followed the ark system in on monday i would definitely be getting out today. and even if it continued higher i wouldn't feel bad a bit about maybe scoring 2% on the market in 2 trading days. as it is now, the system is locked into its weekly trading timeframe and will be holding until at least tuesday depending on the next signal this weekend. and i have to admit that makes me very nervous.
 
Whipsaw said:
RF, at 2092 SNP is only 10 points away. You moving out today?
Click to expand...

Man that's a tough call. We've got both The Minneapolis and Dallas Fed Presidents speaking today. Could give us an indication of whether or not interest rates will increase in the June July time frame. If it looks like they will not, we could be looking at new highs in the S&P for 2016. I agree with burro though, staying in until next Tuesday makes me nervous...What are your thoughts?
 
burrocrat said:
if i had followed the ark system in on monday i would definitely be getting out today. and even if it continued higher i wouldn't feel bad a bit about maybe scoring 2% on the market in 2 trading days. as it is now, the system is locked into its weekly trading timeframe and will be holding until at least tuesday depending on the next signal this weekend. and i have to admit that makes me very nervous.
Click to expand...

What's your Ark moniker?
 
burrocrat said:
if i had followed the ark system in on monday i would definitely be getting out today. and even if it continued higher i wouldn't feel bad a bit about maybe scoring 2% on the market in 2 trading days. as it is now, the system is locked into its weekly trading timeframe and will be holding until at least tuesday depending on the next signal this weekend. and i have to admit that makes me very nervous.
Click to expand...

Ok old wise one. I'm bailing to the G fund COB today. No matter how this thing ends today, this is the best trade I've made since March 12 thru the 18th, 2015 when I gained 2.98%. Thank you so much for creating the Ark. Just loving it this week!!!
 
a long weekend with good weather coming up and i have some plans. sure it might be nice to sit on this for a few days and see if the markets or the word shows us a tell, but i know how it crunches out right now and i’m making the call.

burros-ark 160529

burros-ark update: caught hold of a rocket there! whooo wheeee! anybody in got themselves +2% or so, just like that out of the blue, so fast i almost didn’t see it. dam. i don’t even know what to say about that, but i’ll probably make up something. almost all arkers are in the black, best we’ve done collectively all year i think. of the 3 in the red there is a curious distribution: mouse was out and stayed out and is down but just barely, owl was in and stayed in and is down but just barely, and wolf was out but got in and is down but just barely, quite the coincedence there, all the rest are in the frickin berries, for now. blackbird did a quick little dance in and out so fast i hardly saw his cat-like feet touch the ground while he robbed the bank. how can these things happen, the world is in shambles, our country is buried in debt, the middle east cartel is choking our oil chicken for over a year now, the political clown car keeps rambling along, and for crap’s sakes congratulations to all the grads and enjoy your new monthly payments on the societal loans, please pay them back so the coffers don’t run dry and the rest of us can have our alpo we saved for? i don’t know any other way to put it other than if you want to score you got to play, and you better be quick about it. things are heating up out there, step careful my friends.

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burros-ark signal: sell. yep, got to go with the contrarian flow, again. that was about as hot and fast as you can expect except for down at mlk blvd late on a summer night. enough plowed in that it is now practically shouting time to get out. el vira is long and strong but exposure is still bearish bigtime, this is not a time for hope. sell. burros-ark will execute a sell and go to g-fund for a trade effective cob tuesday 05/31/16. it is comforting to see the run up into the close so maybe the next official trading day will follow through and the ark can hold these gains, but i suppose it would only be fair to give some back on the exit, kind of like tithing, pray. sell.

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burros-ark stuff: bonus burro chart reading lesson… so i am not a technical guy and this is how it speaks to me. i done got lapped by the c- and s-funds this week, in fact i have not really felt it all year in my personal account, it has gotten big enough that i am starting to fear losses, which has affected my run-and-gun style. i’m not sure what to do about that just yet. but the discipline of the burros-ark system and its indicators and members and trading rules has forced it to play when i wouldn’t, and win when i would otherwise bail and lose. strange. you might notice that the c-fund has kissed the f-fund twice now but never broke significantly above, in fact turning down again when it hits the threshold, which way does it go? the s-fund has bounced off burrocrat account once but is now ahead and threatening to leave it all behind, which way does it go? arker average and i-fund are primed to make up some big ground too. and pay attention to the trading range since early march, hanging around zero +/- a few but not really going anywhere, stagnant. so what to do? if you believe things are overall positive and good with the world then this is just the start and you want to be in. if you believe things are generally negative and wrong with the world then you want to GTF out. that is not really a call any system can make, it belongs to each individual holding the risk. very interesting inflection point here, probably will reveal a lot about human nature, as inflection points tend to do. i am out, and the burros-ark system is getting out at the first available opportunity. call me a negative nancy, but that is how i see it, and i have seen a few things before. also i have been wrong a few times before. so who knows? we will see.

p.s. all due respect and appreciation to any who have served and sacrificed, in any capacity, they are the reason we get to play this free game, thanks for watering the tree.
 
burros-ark 160605
burros-ark update: what a big ole ding dang nothingberger. sure the s-fund picked up about a percent, but why does it feel so uneventful? the tsp funds have all been stubbornly hanging around the zero line +/- a few for the last 3 months, not much reward for the commensurate risk. so what is going on here? well the jobs blowout should be a negative but the market appears to have just shrugged it off, now everybody is thinking no way can the fed raise interest rates in this environment but is that a good thing or a bad thing? at some point we got to cool the free money jets or else blow the whole idea of savings and value out the window, on the other hand maybe that has already happened and we just missed it. the presidential race is monkeying with the markets i think, and maybe the picture will become clearer this week after northern mexico holds its primaries to lend some stability, but then again we might not like the answer or lack thereof, so probably just more uncertainty there. the i-fund is telling us there is something wrong with the world and i believe it, but it has been lagging the u.s. markets for months so who wants to listen to a loser? the funny thing is the f-, c-, and s-funds are all basically in the same spot but the ride they took to get there is different, where is the fun in that? i don’t think anybody would sign up again for that jan-mar ride again voluntarily so why is everybody still strapped patiently in their seats afraid to move with that ‘oh god it can’t get anyworse can it’ sick permagrin plastered all over their faces? this market reminds me of my ex-wife, despite many good reasons and enticements, it just won’t go down.

View attachment 38454

burros-ark signal: hold (confirm previous sell). it sure looks like another contrarian buy spot, but i am not feeling it. the persistent lack of arker appetite for holding risk and long market exposure is troubling, something else is going on here, i just don’t know what it is, yet. hold. sometimes it’s ok to miss the ride, you still get there eventually but possibly avoid a crash meanwhile. burros-ark is sitting this one out. hold.

View attachment 38455

burros-ark stuff: housekeeping: fair warning, there will be some changes to the ark system at the end of the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] quarter. some of it is the usual roster changes when an arker’s trading style becomes unavailable for public view or is no longer representative of the spot they occupy due to life events or obstinance or whatever. but also i have been watching the dichotomy between being part of the system and having the system inform your moves, it is a tricky question in more than a few ways. if your moves are called out on a weekly basis it begins to affect your moves and the system largely depends on aggregate instinct not pre-planning, if you follow the system how can you inform the system as leading indicator, and some folks i just tire of and it’s my boat. there are other reasons of course, but i don’t feel a need to reveal them. so beginning in quarter 3 the ark system will no longer list each individual member, nor make some snyde comment about the weekly happenings associated with each. i’m sure there are some that will miss that part, but to be honest i am just about fresh out of cuss words, sexual innuendo, and antagonism. so i will continue to tally individual arker results behind the curtain, but there will be less ’15 minutes of fame’ involved at the individual level. this was an unavoidable natural progression as i ready the burros-ark system for its paid investment service launch, which i am calculating will be sometime around the year of our lord 2021, until then this is about as free as it gets. besides, the system maintenance has been detracting from the time and attention i can pay to my 3 prior loves: poker, politics, and hangman. trade quick and trade well (or as the king of sling used to say: "float like a butterfly, sting like a bee").
 
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some random life observations:

i live across the street from a bar. it is a very nice bar and restaurant. sometimes on the weekends folks show up in one car but leave in another car. i can tell because of the cars left overnight in the parking lot on sunday mornings. it makes for some very interesting morning coffee neighborhood people watching.

sometimes they pull up early and scoot to their car in a hurry, the gal just practically jumps out before his car is stopped and gets in and locks her door and puts her head in her hands. she waits there until he leaves and the pulls off in the other direction to fool his stalker tracking device i guess. maybe some regrets there. other times they hug and kiss like a nurse and a sailor at a wwII victory parade and then jump in quick and pull out together in the same direction. i give them 15 minutes before they are back at his place for 2nd helpings (that is kind of like a brunch buffet). it always makes me think of the signs at the circus circus buffet in vegas when i was a kid "take all you want, eat all you take".

i bet most of those outfits were fancy and seemed like a great idea for a saturday night, but on sunday morning they just look cheap.

life is pretty strange.
 
more random life observations:

there is a gal that runs, she runs regularly in the evenings, i watch for her, it is a thing of efficient and elegant beauty. she is probably 65-70 years old and 100 pounds would be overestimating it i think. i watch her for over a block before she passes out of view.

now you would think gravity applies to everything universally, what comes up must go down. but not this one, she has something figured out. if i was to run i would plod and pump and struggle and every step would pound against the pavement, all the other joggers who run by do that too so i am not the only one. but not this old bird, she does not go up and down so much as she goes around. like in an oval, so smooth, no wasted effort, she steps so light as part of her whole body rotation that it doesn't even look like she touches the ground, no impact or discernable change of direction, everything just flows.

i have thought about going out there and flagging her down and asking her about it, but it seems so petty of me to even consider slowing her down, she is definitely on a mission or something, you just know not to get in her way. there is a purpose to what she is doing obviously, i just haven't figured it out yet.
 
oh man, that older gal just flew by again this evening. she doesn't run so much as she floats. fascinating. i got to do something about this. i ain't going to start jogging that would just be sad and funny at the same time. maybe i should get a bike and practice going around and around like that? crazy. i have seen a lot of crazy things, but this old gal has a motion that is unusual off the charts, she floats with no apparent effort, like moonwalking only forwards, so smooth. unreal. maybe she is a jedi.
 
When you're in the zone, peak of fitness, everything clicks and smooth is the order of the day. When you're 'that' in shape and don't have to work at moving forward, it does have a floating feeling to it. Haven't been there since HS...
 
last time I can remember feeling that way was summer I got out of college-walk walk walking up and down hills, cross dry desert country, all day every day-work. break down 10 miles from camp, one wheel stuck in bottomless little mudhole in one wheeltrack of dirt road, 2 handyman jacks lost in sequence in the mudhole, thought nothing of jogtrotting 10 miles back to camp to get help. those were the days. loved that job.
 
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