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burrocrat's Account Talk
- Thread starter burrocrat
- Start date
Just lucky right now Cactus. It's a "know nothing" approach for sure, and if you ask my wife, she would say this approach matches who I am to a tee. (Though I'm sure ol' Birch might disagree - smart guy who bought and held thru thick and thin and came out better than most of us)
Still lookin' up at Donkey's rump. Happy for him, but that ain't a sweet fragrace.
Still lookin' up at Donkey's rump. Happy for him, but that ain't a sweet fragrace.
burrocrat
Well-known member
Well brother burro you managed to get out today to the upside. Up 7.75% year to date and number 4 on the "non-premium service" Auto Tracker. Congratulations on a great trade!!! I'm impressed!
amen to that. no offense to anybody still in, but i hope it drops off 3-4% this week quick because burrocrat personal account still got 2 trades this month and that was just the first trade for the ark so could be some good bargain hunter shoppin comin up real quick, poppin tags.
this is the kinda market you got to wiggle through the weeds with. gotta get low and dirty. good think i am familiar with that technique.
ravensfan
Well-known member
I still have my two trades for the month as well, so I will be right there with you, wiggling through the weeds, doing a little bottom feeding.:nuts:
burrocrat
Well-known member
that's right there homes, let's see a quick fast drop and go shopping on the market sale, bargain basement stuff, poppin tags!
warning, esplickit lyrics.
warning, esplickit lyrics.
FAB1
Well-known member
burrocrat
Well-known member
burrocrat
Well-known member
good start tuesday yes, but wednesday follow through is not there, that trade setup is now gone. the potential conditions for a quick drop and pop trade are no longer there, busto. so it is sit and wait for a new show of opportunity. that is ok, it happens sometimes, actually it happens most times. you got to know when to fold 'em.
my burrocrat real money account is no longer looking for a shot in the next few days, but that too could change, but it is difficult to imagine a scenario on thursday morning that would prompt me to pull the trigger and i still do not want to be holding any position other than cash over a weekend. burros-ark as always assesses data on sunday and may or may not trade on monday.
it looks like the thriftshop sale is cancelled, but there will be another. good luck all.
burrocrat
Well-known member
yes, no brainer if you are referencing burros-ark system because it only and always trades on monday and holds its position for a week until the next signal for trading on monday, it has always been thus.
maybe, if you are talking about burrocrat personal account because i will slam all my chips in on a moment's notice if like carol king i feel the earth move under my feet.
either way i will call my shot first before i shoot it. i try not to take any random shots, but i sometimes will pull my trigger if i feel like it? i don't know what to tell you. there is nothing to explain. it is or it ain't?
but i do not expect to be trading my personal burrocrat account for a bit, i haven't felt like it all year, i am scared, this is a big market beast and it may pay to be careful and slow about things.
the burros-ark system depends on about a dozen indicator species who are just a part of the total tsptalker's moves i watch, in addition to much other information outside of tsp realm. but it only moves on mondays after posting a summary and trades on the prior sunday.
that is how it works. sometimes it don't work so well. but so far it has, and good.
scout... have you considered joining the tsptalk poker club? you will see how i move my money, it is inherent in all i do. if i think it is there i take it. sometimes i lose it. those things happen, a lot. i have tried to understand and/or change it my whole life but it is not in my nature. when the call comes you go, simple as that. if you move it is all in, all the ways, all the time, full commitment and don't look back. that is the path. i have made it 45+ years this way and i am not going to argue with success. we all only lose once, and it is always the last time. it is a very simple concept if you have crawled through the fog and walked that long gauzy path back from close to the other side. i can not explain it, believe me i have tried.
you is what you is, and you do what you do. and you live, until you don't. it is good to live, even when you lose because the alternative is worse, for now.
Last edited:
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160313
burros-ark update: very good gains made up by anybody in, we are getting so close to breaking even it must be a youg relief. some folks reallocated but stayed allin, mostly just adjusting to how the percentages of their holdings have changed since the shakeup or positioning for other sector expected performance to maintain desired allotment i guess. only hawk assumed more risk than previously and that whole contrarian the contrarian contrarianism tricky stuff almost cost him big on the front end but he managed to get out the back end just fine. so there is more comfort and reconfirmation of willingness to be exposed to risk, and that is a good thing because risk, or fear of risk, is what makes the market move. it is an animal and it doesn’t want to get eaten, that is why it runs sometimes. it is daylight savings time, time to reset the clock. a fresh start, so here we go again, another week of life time on tap. that is a good thing.
View attachment 37548
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm previous sell signal). not enough movement to recommend a bail, and not enough to recommend a buy either. hold. but there is some funny stuff going on in this market, the i-fund remains bound between the c- and s-funds, like a pinball bouncing around, but it cannot meaningfully break either limit. so what is going on that is dragging the rest of the world along upward with us? what can we do to keep them helping to paddle our boat? i don’t know, but there is fedspeak coming up this week and maybe we will find out. hold.
View attachment 37549
burros-ark stuff: i am still fascinated by the graph/chart/visual representation of performance. it says lots of things to me. all of the equity indices, including the ark-average, follow the same general path. so if one can tap that flow and feel where it is going in a general way, then there is opportunity to ride a good wave. i don’t want to get into the waves and counts and defining to an excruciating level of detail each specific wave, because waves do what they do and they cannot be detailed to our disposal, all you can do is see one when it breaks and try like hell to catch it (and hope you don’t get pounded in the surf). the burros-ark system considers g- and f-fund ‘out’ (bonds or safe money), and c-, s-, and i-funds ‘in’ (money bet on the table). and that is what the chart shows too, g- and f- perform overall flat and predictable in the long haul, and c-, s-, i- run with the market dogs. yes there is variation between each, but that is fine-tuning, magic stuff, good luck figuring it out. so that confirms why i go with a mix of c- and s- when in (i don’t trust the man behind the curtain i-fund fair value adjustments, not in the short term any given day and definitely not cumulatively over the long run either as there is too much room for manipulation and ‘skimming the pot’). the only line on that graph that acts indepently of others is the burros-ark. and it has been laddering up gains and protecting against drops very well. will that continue, for how long? who knows? maybe for a short time, and on the long average, but for sure not every time, there will be some falls that happen, that is what gravity is for. but not just yet, market devil, i can feel you on my heels and the hot breath on my neck, but i still got a step on you and you ain’t catching me yet. i run free. enjoy your volatile week and trading opportunities friends, and remember to count your blessings… at least you can run free and trade. try not to get eaten. wheeee!
burros-ark update: very good gains made up by anybody in, we are getting so close to breaking even it must be a youg relief. some folks reallocated but stayed allin, mostly just adjusting to how the percentages of their holdings have changed since the shakeup or positioning for other sector expected performance to maintain desired allotment i guess. only hawk assumed more risk than previously and that whole contrarian the contrarian contrarianism tricky stuff almost cost him big on the front end but he managed to get out the back end just fine. so there is more comfort and reconfirmation of willingness to be exposed to risk, and that is a good thing because risk, or fear of risk, is what makes the market move. it is an animal and it doesn’t want to get eaten, that is why it runs sometimes. it is daylight savings time, time to reset the clock. a fresh start, so here we go again, another week of life time on tap. that is a good thing.
View attachment 37548
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm previous sell signal). not enough movement to recommend a bail, and not enough to recommend a buy either. hold. but there is some funny stuff going on in this market, the i-fund remains bound between the c- and s-funds, like a pinball bouncing around, but it cannot meaningfully break either limit. so what is going on that is dragging the rest of the world along upward with us? what can we do to keep them helping to paddle our boat? i don’t know, but there is fedspeak coming up this week and maybe we will find out. hold.
View attachment 37549
burros-ark stuff: i am still fascinated by the graph/chart/visual representation of performance. it says lots of things to me. all of the equity indices, including the ark-average, follow the same general path. so if one can tap that flow and feel where it is going in a general way, then there is opportunity to ride a good wave. i don’t want to get into the waves and counts and defining to an excruciating level of detail each specific wave, because waves do what they do and they cannot be detailed to our disposal, all you can do is see one when it breaks and try like hell to catch it (and hope you don’t get pounded in the surf). the burros-ark system considers g- and f-fund ‘out’ (bonds or safe money), and c-, s-, and i-funds ‘in’ (money bet on the table). and that is what the chart shows too, g- and f- perform overall flat and predictable in the long haul, and c-, s-, i- run with the market dogs. yes there is variation between each, but that is fine-tuning, magic stuff, good luck figuring it out. so that confirms why i go with a mix of c- and s- when in (i don’t trust the man behind the curtain i-fund fair value adjustments, not in the short term any given day and definitely not cumulatively over the long run either as there is too much room for manipulation and ‘skimming the pot’). the only line on that graph that acts indepently of others is the burros-ark. and it has been laddering up gains and protecting against drops very well. will that continue, for how long? who knows? maybe for a short time, and on the long average, but for sure not every time, there will be some falls that happen, that is what gravity is for. but not just yet, market devil, i can feel you on my heels and the hot breath on my neck, but i still got a step on you and you ain’t catching me yet. i run free. enjoy your volatile week and trading opportunities friends, and remember to count your blessings… at least you can run free and trade. try not to get eaten. wheeee!
Boghie
Well-known member
Burro,
Along your lines, this is a portfolio comparison graph generated withing Quicken:
It is a 1 year 'Growth of $10,000' of my TSP account (the '9 Securities' noted in the title. That is: G, F, C, S, I, LIncome,...). So, it takes the asset values as of March 13, 2015 and does what your line graph does against some basic indexes over the year. The only one that maps directly is the S&P500 index.
During that year I didn't trust the market so I am very happy with my meager performance. It was rather level rather than bumping around all over the place. And, it ended up right where the bumpy rides ended up in the end. That is a lot of ends:cheesy:. I might have to show more of my end soon so I can keep up with the tanners on the Ark. Very pale. Very, very pale...
Along your lines, this is a portfolio comparison graph generated withing Quicken:
It is a 1 year 'Growth of $10,000' of my TSP account (the '9 Securities' noted in the title. That is: G, F, C, S, I, LIncome,...). So, it takes the asset values as of March 13, 2015 and does what your line graph does against some basic indexes over the year. The only one that maps directly is the S&P500 index.
During that year I didn't trust the market so I am very happy with my meager performance. It was rather level rather than bumping around all over the place. And, it ended up right where the bumpy rides ended up in the end. That is a lot of ends:cheesy:. I might have to show more of my end soon so I can keep up with the tanners on the Ark. Very pale. Very, very pale...
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160320
burros-ark update: more gains for anybody in, creeping up on break even. First 6 weeks down -10% to -15%, doom and gloom. then 5 weeks up to zero, happy days. crazy stuff this market washing macheen, everybody into the pool, chaos goes round and round and purges some while spitting out others clean. i am not convinced that there is a way to predict this stuff, but i do believe you can react quickly to stimuli you feel. like carol king, when you feel the earth move under your feet, what do you do? is it just a tremor, a warning? is it the big one? who knows? but if you feel it then you got to jump, or get rumbled. a horse apiece then, some will win and some will always lose. that is the way. crazy games, for money, for retirement marbles, all of them. got to stay one step ahead of the reaper. good luck with that, he catches us all eventually. that realization is actually very liberating if you stop to think about it, there is no better metric of success than time. as long as you are still moving those feet, making heel dust, then you are winning, the scale is of little importance as we all feel hunger the same. this is an interesting track meet we find ourselves in then, the goal is purportedly to cross the finish line, but not just yet please. run, as best you can, run, and maybe someday fly.
View attachment 37647
burros-ark signal: hold. (confirm previous previous sell). this is an impressive 5-week straight shot run nothing but up. what is supporting it, what is driving it? does anybody really feel comfortable striking up the band and dancing carefree in this market? yes, all indices are converging at near break even. burros-ark average is slightly behind c-fund now but ahead of s- and i-funds. And all of them at or near zero. is this something to celebrate? why? hold. el vira is dead even, and exposure is on the conservative fear side. there is a lot of stress in the social construct systems of the day, politics, finances, employment, geo-location, all of it, stressed to near the edges. wait for this wave to break before deciding if you can ride it and escape being pounded in the surf. hold.
View attachment 37648
burros-ark stuff: there is great value in lion’s story about arriving at the same destination but with less bumps. it is all relative though, some like to make theirs smooth and slow, and some prefer the drops and pops of the roller coaster, there is opportunity in both. we all do what we do and we’ll pay for our sins, but don’t let that hold you back, when the piper calls, just dance your tune as best you can. there is beauty in that, in the struggle. let’s dance.
burros-ark update: more gains for anybody in, creeping up on break even. First 6 weeks down -10% to -15%, doom and gloom. then 5 weeks up to zero, happy days. crazy stuff this market washing macheen, everybody into the pool, chaos goes round and round and purges some while spitting out others clean. i am not convinced that there is a way to predict this stuff, but i do believe you can react quickly to stimuli you feel. like carol king, when you feel the earth move under your feet, what do you do? is it just a tremor, a warning? is it the big one? who knows? but if you feel it then you got to jump, or get rumbled. a horse apiece then, some will win and some will always lose. that is the way. crazy games, for money, for retirement marbles, all of them. got to stay one step ahead of the reaper. good luck with that, he catches us all eventually. that realization is actually very liberating if you stop to think about it, there is no better metric of success than time. as long as you are still moving those feet, making heel dust, then you are winning, the scale is of little importance as we all feel hunger the same. this is an interesting track meet we find ourselves in then, the goal is purportedly to cross the finish line, but not just yet please. run, as best you can, run, and maybe someday fly.
View attachment 37647
burros-ark signal: hold. (confirm previous previous sell). this is an impressive 5-week straight shot run nothing but up. what is supporting it, what is driving it? does anybody really feel comfortable striking up the band and dancing carefree in this market? yes, all indices are converging at near break even. burros-ark average is slightly behind c-fund now but ahead of s- and i-funds. And all of them at or near zero. is this something to celebrate? why? hold. el vira is dead even, and exposure is on the conservative fear side. there is a lot of stress in the social construct systems of the day, politics, finances, employment, geo-location, all of it, stressed to near the edges. wait for this wave to break before deciding if you can ride it and escape being pounded in the surf. hold.
View attachment 37648
burros-ark stuff: there is great value in lion’s story about arriving at the same destination but with less bumps. it is all relative though, some like to make theirs smooth and slow, and some prefer the drops and pops of the roller coaster, there is opportunity in both. we all do what we do and we’ll pay for our sins, but don’t let that hold you back, when the piper calls, just dance your tune as best you can. there is beauty in that, in the struggle. let’s dance.
