burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160214
burros-ark update: despite a hot friday love-making session, the market cheated on us again last week, just like it has been doing most of the year, not very faithful or inspiring, but some managed to stick it good. burro got a little kiss but not worth the cost of the date, wolf took the market’s treats, and chameleon is next in line for this crazy train. the market is a fickle beast, we give our resources to the effort, try to listen and understand its needs, pour hope and heart and soul into it, and get little out of it other than a playful giggle as she walks away and leaves us standing, broke, at the altar. why do we love this again? why do we keep trying?
View attachment 37115
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm previous sell). yes, there is reason to believe, and yes, the market is giving some positive signals, but we have seen this game before and i would like it to demonstrate a little more commitment before biting the hook. hold. el vira and exposure are at great contrarian play levels, but arrived there from the wrong direction, she might be ready to love us again, but why did she come up the street not down it? what was she doing over there, on the bad side of town? wait until it shows us some love, not just a torrid makeup romp. hold.
View attachment 37116
burros-ark stuff: looking at the ark chart, i see something that in retrospect should’ve been obvious. the arker average generally follows the trajectory of the equity funds, just not as extreme, which stands to reason as not all arkers will be allin or allout at the same time, some will always hold some safety assets (g- or f-funds) and some will always hold some risk (c-, s-, and i-funds), and that mutes overall average performance. to me that indicates the ark composition is a good broad mix of investing styles, if it were lopsided we would see levels much closer to the edges of the range. but that is in a down market, what happens in an up market? will the upside returns also be muted as some won’t buy 100% into the euphoria? or will arkers out-trade the rise and score extra gains (they certainly have outperformed the losses)? i don’t know, but i hope we get a chance to find out, and we will, sometime. all that aside, it is saint valentine’s day and i think i will go buy my market mistress some chocolate and roses. i hope she chokes on it and gets scratched by the thorns. may you find a little love in all your trades.
burros-ark update: despite a hot friday love-making session, the market cheated on us again last week, just like it has been doing most of the year, not very faithful or inspiring, but some managed to stick it good. burro got a little kiss but not worth the cost of the date, wolf took the market’s treats, and chameleon is next in line for this crazy train. the market is a fickle beast, we give our resources to the effort, try to listen and understand its needs, pour hope and heart and soul into it, and get little out of it other than a playful giggle as she walks away and leaves us standing, broke, at the altar. why do we love this again? why do we keep trying?
View attachment 37115
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm previous sell). yes, there is reason to believe, and yes, the market is giving some positive signals, but we have seen this game before and i would like it to demonstrate a little more commitment before biting the hook. hold. el vira and exposure are at great contrarian play levels, but arrived there from the wrong direction, she might be ready to love us again, but why did she come up the street not down it? what was she doing over there, on the bad side of town? wait until it shows us some love, not just a torrid makeup romp. hold.
View attachment 37116
burros-ark stuff: looking at the ark chart, i see something that in retrospect should’ve been obvious. the arker average generally follows the trajectory of the equity funds, just not as extreme, which stands to reason as not all arkers will be allin or allout at the same time, some will always hold some safety assets (g- or f-funds) and some will always hold some risk (c-, s-, and i-funds), and that mutes overall average performance. to me that indicates the ark composition is a good broad mix of investing styles, if it were lopsided we would see levels much closer to the edges of the range. but that is in a down market, what happens in an up market? will the upside returns also be muted as some won’t buy 100% into the euphoria? or will arkers out-trade the rise and score extra gains (they certainly have outperformed the losses)? i don’t know, but i hope we get a chance to find out, and we will, sometime. all that aside, it is saint valentine’s day and i think i will go buy my market mistress some chocolate and roses. i hope she chokes on it and gets scratched by the thorns. may you find a little love in all your trades.
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