burrocrat's Account Talk

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Where I went Miller Lite was the most popular, but you could get Milwaukee's Beast and Schaeffer cheaper. In my circle we opted for Schaeffer and its $2.05 per sixer cost.
 
burros-ark update: that was some pretty good gains this last week, and almost 5% for the month according to the autotracker. which is good because i was getting discouraged after being kicked on by the market most of august and september. it doesn't seem to make much sense why the ups, but i am not arguing. hawk is still laddering carefully up and racking small persistant scores with minimal risk, impressive. the ark now has more than half of its members above ytd zero which has not happened for a while and another two close to break even. everybody is winning vs. last week. good job folks.


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burros-ark signal: sell. el vira flipped to negative 18% and exposure is only at 36% long equities, massive flip flop, extremely bearish, and fast, sell. 4 folks bailed and nobody saw a reason to buy, very interesting. maybe profit taking, maybe indicates a wariness about risk. it don't matter why, the tide shifted either way. burros-ark will execute a sell now but not eventually go to 100% g fund until effective close of business tuesday because of christopher kill the natives columbus which is really the king ferdinand and queen isabella of spain's fault, them and their damn nina, pinta, and santa maria. this is not your regular commercial brokerage account navy, the tsp ship is slow to respond and come around. hold on, batten down, i think this is going to hurt. sell.
 
ift to 100% effective cob today, i'm following the ark signal out and hoping it doesn't drop too bad this afternoon before i can get out and lock in the recent gains.
 
i see i forgot to add the 'g fund' in my prior post but i think i got the autotracker entry right. in related news, that sure turned a lot further south faster than i wanted to see, but i will be plum happy if i get out today with anything less than a 1% loss. i do not want to be in this market right now, got a really bad feeling about it.
 
ravensfan said:
I'm surprised you have not commented on Playboy doing away with nude pictures of women...Come on burro, you gotta have a position on this...
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i'm still in mourning, i feel like my adolescence has been stolen.

i used to 'recycle' before recycling was ever a thing. making the rounds as a 12 year old on my bicycle at 6 am before school delivering newspapers in the morning, i discovered that the quickmarts would tear the covers off unsold magazines each month to get credit for surplus issues from the distributor and then throw the rest of the periodical in the dumpster. what a waste. as luck would have it, i had plenty of room in the paper bags and managed to parlay that into a lucrative side business providing nudity challenged peers with adequate, uhh, reading material, for a fair cash cost that the market would bear.

i learned a lot in those study sessions out in the cliffs behind my house, about hair styles, about airbrushing (photoshopping now), about fashion and cheerleader uniforms, about how to act like a gentleman (yes i did read some articles), about capitalism, i learned about a lot of things. later i would recognize some of the gals got famous and were in the movies and stuff so i think it helped a lot of people get ahead.

i feel bad for the kids today. but i do note that playboy is just doing away with full nudity and not the boobies, so that is ok because those were always my favorite parts anyways. 2 out of 3 ain't bad.
 
Ahh memories of youth. I was lucky enough to have a friend at the age of 10 whose older brother had a stash of Penthouse magazines that we frequently ogled uhh read the articles when no one was around, so I avoided being nudity challenged. Thing is, I never did get over my fascination for boobies. It's something that I deal with to this day.

All the best to you and thanks for the reputation points!!! :laugh:
 
burros-ark update: interesting week, if you were out and stayed out you are pretty much in the same spot on the autotracker. if you were in and got out you went a little backwards. if you were in and stayed in you made some minor progress, but not much headway compared to risk. it seems the market is waiting for something, i wonder what it is? the numbers are massively negative, if you look at the autotracker as a whole i don't know that the top 50 or even top 100 have been in this conservative of an allocation, ever. this would be a great time to make the contrarian play and just jump in, if you got big nuts and don't care about your money. not for me thanks. i am glad i got out even though it was the worst day to do so last week. confucious say: may you live in interesting times.


View attachment 35622



burros-ark signal: hold. el vira is at -12% and exposure is at 28%, this practically screams get in now but there might be something hugely negative afoot this time, i mean c'mon, the end of the financial world has to happen sometime, quit teasing us already. hold. most are out so it doesn't matter now anyways, but if you are in i don't know that selling is going to help. like a ray bradbury dream, something wicked this way comes. enjoy the ride. hold.
 
burros-ark update: hmmmm, two in and one out, and all three of them heavies who i expect to trade frequently and know what to do and why. the market seems happy to not have crashed again and now the public expects things to migrate higher too. tough call. last week was somewhat positive for those in, but many arkers are out and staying out for now signaling and underlying pessimism. i wonder what will give? if i had the annual leave i would just sit at home all day in my shorts and watch cnbc while eating cereal with chocolate milk for the next week and pull my trigger when the opportunity presented itself. but i can't afford that so i will have to make a quick call here this weekend i suppose.

View attachment 35712

burros-ark signal: buy. el vira flipped positive to 2% now and exposure has increased to 36%. buy. got to go with the flow i guess. i think this is a risky move and i am not making it in my personal account, yet. but the ark says go, so we go. i hope the market don't pee in our wheaties. buy.
 
wheeee! that was a good ride, ha! i really liked that surprise drop and then bungie jump spring right back to the top of an even higher cliff, that was a nice touch. i wonder delightful surprises tomorrow will bring?
 
burrocrat said:
wheeee! that was a good ride, ha! i really liked that surprise drop and then bungie jump spring right back to the top of an even higher cliff, that was a nice touch. i wonder delightful surprises tomorrow will bring?
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I love it when buyers step in, refusing to be outpaced by the sellers, I'm guessing on that initial drop, the news wasn't digested properly, so a correction was made.
 
so looking at today's c fund chart, i got a math question, or maybe it is a geometry question, has anyone looked at this theory and came to any conclusions?

i remember doing makeup homework after skipping school one day and it was this stuff about the slope of a line. basically you were given two points on a x-y graph and had to figure out the answer. the chart from 10a-2p goes over 4 units and up 1 unit, 1:4 or 25% slope i think, a nice upward trend. the chart from 2p-4p goes over 2 units and up 2 units, 1:1 or (i don't know %) slope i think, a pretty steep climb. this is where it gets confusing because the % of slope is not the same as the degree of angle. if you have a right triangle with two equal side then the hypotenuse is 1.41 the length of the sides and the angle is 45 degrees in the corners, i do remember that part.

i am not sure what this means or how it relates to investing, but you don't have to be pythagoras to figure out that we are in exciting terrortory. is there an ideal sustainable slope that is good for making money, or a dangerous slope that indicates the wheels are about to come off the train?
 
:)

Slopes are not typically denoted as percentages. Simply "rise over run" 1/4 is a slope of 0.25. 1/1 is a slope of 1. Slope is typically labeled "m." y=mx+b

Regarding trading. IMO. RSI is essentially a measure of slope over the range denoted by the parameter used with the RSI indicator. IOW. The slope, or RSI will depend upon where you start measuring, and where you end measuring. IE. the RSI parameter. HTH. :)

burrocrat said:
so looking at today's c fund chart, i got a math question, or maybe it is a geometry question, has anyone looked at this theory and came to any conclusions?

i remember doing makeup homework after skipping school one day and it was this stuff about the slope of a line. basically you were given two points on a x-y graph and had to figure out the answer. the chart from 10a-2p goes over 4 units and up 1 unit, 1:4 or 25% slope i think, a nice upward trend. the chart from 2p-4p goes over 2 units and up 2 units, 1:1 or (i don't know %) slope i think, a pretty steep climb. this is where it gets confusing because the % of slope is not the same as the degree of angle. if you have a right triangle with two equal side then the hypotenuse is 1.41 the length of the sides and the angle is 45 degrees in the corners, i do remember that part.

i am not sure what this means or how it relates to investing, but you don't have to be pythagoras to figure out that we are in exciting terrortory. is there an ideal sustainable slope that is good for making money, or a dangerous slope that indicates the wheels are about to come off the train?
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I believe you are referring to Linear Regression, indicators for those exist on most of the charting platforms. As long as all of your charts are setup the same size, timeframe, and set into percentage mode, then you can calculate the angle of attack across multiple Indexes.

Unfortunately I was unable to extrapolate the degrees (angles) from the linear prices. Sure, I could throw up a protractor on the screen, but without the ability to analyze the historical data, there was really no way for me to figure out a statistical edge on angle of attacks.

On a math scale, I am fairly dumb, I'm sure it can be done, I just don't know how to do it.
 
JTH said:
I believe you are referring to Linear Regression, indicators for those exist on most of the charting platforms. As long as all of your charts are setup the same size, timeframe, and set into percentage mode, then you can calculate the angle of attack across multiple Indexes.

Unfortunately I was unable to extrapolate the degrees (angles) from the linear prices. Sure, I could throw up a protractor on the screen, but without the ability to analyze the historical data, there was really no way for me to figure out a statistical edge on angle of attacks.

On a math scale, I am fairly dumb, I'm sure it can be done, I just don't know how to do it.
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You can use the arctan function. But I would simply use RSI if I wanted a measure of "how high, how fast."
 
this theory fascinates me because i think it applies both to materials and to people. maybe it applies to the markets as well.

in engineery classes it was called the 'angle of repose'. water for example seeks to be flat, if you pile up sand eventually it will run down the sides and only form a cone with a predictable base to height ratio, if you add water to sand it will pile up at a different angle because of resistance, technically you could configure velcro at almost any angle you want. all things have an inherent angle of repose, or a natural state.

when i worked in construction it was called angle of the dangle instead, but the same theory (no offense to ironworkers, but you ain't the brightest bulbs in the socket). when i misspent time on the street the saying was 'you can only stack sh*t so high'.

so this is a universal concept that applies to things and folks, and maybe the markets. i am going to work on this some after i retire and maybe die famous.
 
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