burrocrat's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Interesting. Fluid dynamics.

There is a difference, however. The physical world is restricted in such angles by the laws of physics, gravity, coefficients of friction, etc. While the markets seem to be beyond the confines of such restrictions. Even so, I'm sure patterns exists; whether you measure them via angles and distance/days, or simply RSI.

burrocrat said:
this theory fascinates me because i think it applies both to materials and to people. maybe it applies to the markets as well.

in engineery classes it was called the 'angle of repose'. water for example seeks to be flat, if you pile up sand eventually it will run down the sides and only form a cone with a predictable base to height ratio, if you add water to sand it will pile up at a different angle because of resistance, technically you could configure velcro at almost any angle you want.

when i worked in construction it was called angle of the dangle instead, but the same theory (no offense to ironworkers, but you ain't the brightest bulbs in the socket). when i misspent time on the street the saying was 'you can only stack sh*t so high'.

so this is a universal concept that applies to things and folks, and maybe the markets. i am going to work on this some after i retire and maybe die famous.
Click to expand...
 
burros-ark update: well that was a whole lot of risk for very little return, what a ride. folks are still inching up the ytd scale, but goldam that is some hard-fought ground. and now maybe the window is already past, everybody is looking forward to the krist kringle rally already and we haven't even finished celebrating the day of the dead. crazy things these pagan rituals and creation story holidays bring. screw it, i got a little bit of candy this week and that is more sugar than i had last week so that is ok in my book. it is good to know that politically we are going to print money forever according to the federal reserve and fortunately they aren't going to charge us much interest to prespend our inheritance so that should keep the wheels of the market train greased for while. all aboard! chu chu.

View attachment 35779

burros ark signal: sell. el vira is at 28% and exposure jumped to 59%. this is a classic equity distribution but it got there from a massive negative out look in very short order. contrarian sell. get out, now. i read a news story about a whale watching boat in canada. 27 souls on board and 5 lost their lives when all of them were stacked on the top deck and ran to the port side to see a leviathan breech who maybe their moneys would help save. as a sailor i can tell you what happens when 27 folks with a combined mass of 1.01 metric tubbies rush to one side and lean over the rail to get a good view on a ship with a displacement of only 0.99 metric tubbies. in engineery terms it is refered to as 'moment', when the force of the lever exceeds the balance at the fulcrum. in any event, those folks got a good view of fate and some met the moment of their lives. that is what is about to happen to the market as near as i can tell, seriously misallocated weight, too much too fast. i hope we can swim. jump ship, sell. burros-ark is exiting the market to 100% g at cob monday nov02. good luck turkeys.

View attachment 35780

some extra analysis for ya, just because it has been a while since i said analysis. arkers are holding their own pretty good.
 
Whipsaw said:
Burro, can you 'splain me the extra analysis chart? Thanks!
Click to expand...

burros-ark system is doing better than each of the individual tsp funds.

burros-ark residents individually on average are doing better than each of the tsp funds except for c fund which only 6 of 13 are winning.
 
well i am glad burros-ark got out today, i love getting out on big up days. that is about a 2% net positive trade in one week so that is a win in my book and don't regret it at all.

now i am a don't bettor though, got my money on the don't pass line, just waiting for that 3-5% sudden drop that wipes the smiles off everybody's faces so i can get back in quick.
 
burros-ark update: we are about at where we started on el vira allocation and risk scales but some folks picked up a little gains and kangaroo made a bold move to score some headway. is the fed is or is the fed aints going to raise some rates eventually? that is the question. will the end of free future money kill the short-term market, or will continued free future money kill the long-term market? those are good questions. i don't know. but whatever happens the market will bake it in long before it happens so i am feeling a little cautious right now until we see the cake.

View attachment 35874

burros-ark signal: hold. el vira is at 26% and exposure is at 67%, a rather optimistic but not extreme distribution. hold. the ark will kind of just lollygag in the slack tide for a bit until it turns. hold.


besides, we got to slow down and let another rower off, amoeba got tired paddling backwards on his own and is jumping ship. some turtles are sea turtles so i suppose they know how to swim, we'll slow down for a bit in the shallow waters and enjoy the cannonball show.


also, i am considering just leaving it at a 'dirty dozen' but i dislike even numbers so i may search for a new 13th. enjoy the market shenanigans and uncertainty, it's like a casino except here you might actually win.
 
I see you placed me under the cougar, next week I would like to be on top of the cougar, can you make that happen?
 
in case you are shopping already, you can cross 'tinfoil wallet' off my list because i got a new one today. well, it isn't all tinfoil, but it has tinfoil sewn in between the fake leather which will keep me safe from identity theft and credit card fraud. i was buying some new sheets and a comforter set in case, well you know, if i get an unexpected xmas elf visit (please santa let it be a girl elf) and i had to spend another $10 to get my bonus points for the month so i can save even more money in december. they had underwear on sale but i don't need any more since i started buying the jockey h-fly silky synthetic stretchy kind so i got a wallet instead. it is cool because my last wallet was wrong sized to hold debit/credit cards and really tight to get them out to pay for anything so i needed a new one to hold all the money i saved. i am going to recycle the old one into a portable photo book and printout some pictures of all my internet enemies. that way every time i slip it into my back pocket i can smile a little knowing they are kissing my rear all day long.
 
Have to agree with you burro. This rate hike panic has been a noose around our necks for going on two years now and it's the same old game. We jump into the market with the hopes we are going to make some coin. Panic grips the market because oh my Janet is going to raise rates. We sell at a lower price than we bought in at, the "smart money" makes all the cash and the cycle continues.

So this time I'm staying in. I'm gonna keep the shares I purchased. Eventually, prices will go back up and I will have deprived the "smart money" of their gains.
 
Oh good, that means I might still get a chance to make a few more gains for the year. Patience is a virtue.
 
ok i'm going in, too delicious to resist. i asked for a 3-5% drop to wipe the silly smile off the bull's faces and the market delivered, hold my beer.

4% off sale, 2 days only, tickets going fast, friday friday friday.

75c, 25s, cob today. let er rip tater chip.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
157
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Optimism with Caution
Replies
1
Views
341
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
New TSP L-fund
Replies
1
Views
7K
JTH
JTH
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - So far so good for the holiday rally
Replies
1
Views
145
WorkFE
WorkFE
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Santa came to town on Tuesday
Replies
2
Views
155
TommyIV
TommyIV
Back
Top