Bull Pen - June 2006

[Birchtree]

The Nikkei looks climactic - could be an intraday bottom. The Hedge funds are leaving, but mom and pop domestic are staying - and I'd rather have it that way. Reduces volatility and more pleasant to accumulate shares at reasonable prices unless of course you are already sitting on 40,000 shares and want the return to $20.95 as soon as possible. All I can do is lend them my cilice for a modest fee.

 

[robo]

The Nikkei looks climactic - could be an intraday bottom. The Hedge funds are leaving, but mom and pop domestic are staying - and I'd rather have it that way. Reduces volatility and more pleasant to accumulate shares at reasonable prices unless of course you are already sitting on 40,000 shares and want the return to $20.95 as soon as possible. All I can do is lend them my cilice for a modest fee.

Buying the Nikkei tomorrow morning! Added I Fund today. Looks like I was early again, but I know value when I see it. Sign me up for some pain my friend!!!

 

[mlk_man]

I've been waiting for this day. Let's ride!!!!!!!!!

 

[Show-me]

I've been waiting for this day. Let's ride!!!!!!!!!

Is that you John Wayne?

 

[Show-me]

I am a day or two early but I'm in.

 

[mlk_man]

Is that you John Wayne?

Sure looks like him huh? As big as he was, he always made the horse look small.

 

[JOVARN]

The Nikkei looks climactic - could be an intraday bottom. The Hedge funds are leaving, but mom and pop domestic are staying - and I'd rather have it that way. Reduces volatility and more pleasant to accumulate shares at reasonable prices unless of course you are already sitting on 40,000 shares and want the return to $20.95 as soon as possible. All I can do is lend them my cilice for a modest fee.

Assuming that you are in the Bull Pen; it looks like the S fund is the better choice as the price is at or near Nov 2005 which was the start of the bull run

I or S or both
I have been 50 50 for the past month and have taken a beating and I have no plan to jump ship at this point.

whats your take?

 

[Griffin]

It appers the major european markets are finding support at levels around the lows of late May. The Japanesse are dealing with another insider, Livedoor, type scandel and the Nikkei is now significantly below May's lows. The Nikkei looks like it is going to drag down the I-Fund for a while. Given the strengthing of the dollar, I don't think this is a reason to hit the panic button yet. There is some real opportunity here, however, I will wait to see the dollar lose it's momentum before moving into the I.

I am currently in the S-fund and will be watching the progress this morning. Over the last two weeks, I was using 553 on the DWCP as my stop point, I am still using that number, but I don't think it will be necessary.

Today could be the day things turn around (about freakin time )

 

[Birchtree]

Jovarn,

There may be life yet left in the S fund - but outperformance will be left at the door this time around. I'm a C fund guy for the immediate future.

Dennis

 

[FundSurfer]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2003-12-14-mart_x.htm

An article about markets following Saddam's capture. Zarqui ain't Saddam but....

 

[Griffin]

My stop was broken, so I pulled back to the G-Fund. Time to go back to the charts, but I think the line Tom drew this morning pointing to the S&P at 1210 may be our next stop.

This could be the start of a rough summer.

 

[Birchtree]

Sometimes I'm the only guy left at the dance to entertain all the wall flowers - only this time I believe there may be others. Let me know how cold the water is a the bottom of the well - never mind I'll test it myself most likely.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Griffin]

After today’s action a little commentary is probably in due order. I’m getting to this kind of late, because happy hour rose to the first order of business, following today’s closing bell. Five martinis later, the edge is off and I probably couldn’t cut butter right now.

Despite the strength presented in the closing hours it would be foolish to discount the magnitude of what happened today and chalk today’s low up to some market aberration. I agree with Rev that today was a win for the bulls, but at a cost. The channel of the past three years was broken to the upside over the past three months, and now it has been broken to the downside. Take it seriously, I believe this is strong evidence of what is to come for a good portion of the summer and probably well into the fall. We are looking at a change of behavior within the market once again. The technical analysis of the near future is going to be tricky as the market redefines it’s critical levels. To me, this means a low aggressive approach, one that will likely lead to backing out of the market at the first signs of weakness and buying based on early indicators of strength rather then expected support levels. This is not going to generate any whopping returns, but pigs get slaughtered.

I want to briefly mention the F-Fund, traditionally in a bull market, it serves as an alternate tool for capital preservation, but my view on it may change following the next FOMC meeting. I expect a .50% rate hike followed by a pause that turns into the cease fire similar to that of the Korean War (i.e. this will be the last rate hike for awhile). A significant rate hike will due it some damage, and coupling that with the pain of the past 6 months, I am throwing it on my radar screen as a potential return generating tool along with the stock funds. I’m not ready to label this a bear market yet but I do not see a full recovery occurring in the near future. The F-Fund has a history of respectable returns during weak stock market seasons, I’m prepared to get bullish on the F-fund.

The next couple of months will be touchy and the benefits of multiple viewpoints will serve us all well.

 

[mlk_man]

Griffin, now that is personal commentary and opinion that one can read and think about without telling that person what they should or should not do. Quite articulate without sounding "all knowing". I doubt you come back 6 months from now and say "Told ya so", someone pat me on the back...........

I do have to say though that I hope your pulling back to the G fund was a day early. I have some making up to do.........

This is hit and run time. The market doesn't seem to believe in the "no hitting below the belt" rule though. .............

 

[Griffin]

Milk,

If I ever start telling people “what to do” or “I told you so” by all means reach out and slap me.

Remember the life line from “Who wants to be a millionaire?” where the person could poll the audience, I highly doubt anyone of us will be right all the time, but I’m willing to bet many of us will be right the majority of the time. That is the synenergy, I wanted to create with this thread, which can’t be done when every opinion is squelched under a barrage of personal attacks.

The floor is open, I hope to hear from you all.

By the way, as much as I hate chasing the market, I am almost certainly getting back into stocks today. But stops exist for a reason, and I am not going to second guess my strategy, I am very happy with my performance so far as I am still over 6.5% above the top performing fund. The concillation prize is that I expect to pick up the G penny tonight.

The set up to play this dip the first couple of days of the month was as perfect as the actual play of it was imperfect, but that’s life. I don’t think the play on this dip will be to bad. I’ll run the numbers when we cross June 2nd’s close price.

 

[Griffin]

I took the evening to catch up on some threads. Considering the number of ribs and wise cracks, I really did not find a whole lot to laugh about (although, plenty to laugh at…..there is a difference )

I read once (and I forget where or I would track down the quote) that in the 1980 election, Reagan received something like 70% of the publicity and although 80% of it was negative, it led to a landslide victory.

Here’s the tie-in, if this thread falters due to a lack of controversy, mudslinging and animosity, I will be happy to see it die rather then the alternative.

Loyalty, Duty, Respect, Selfless Service, Honesty, Integrity and Personal Courage. I know these things have meaning to many of you, whether you are familiar with origins of this list or not. I will conduct myself in accordance with these values in this thread.

 

[FundSurfer]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2003-12-14-mart_x.htm

An article about markets following Saddam's capture. Zarqui ain't Saddam but....

Hey, if your going to knock my reputation points because of a post, have the stones to say why.

 

[grandma]

Hey, if your going to knock my reputation points because of a post, have the stones to say why.

FS: I gave this place 5 stars Thurs night/Friday moning - what happened to the 5th one??

 

[Griffin]

FS: I gave this place 5 stars Thurs night/Friday moning - what happened to the 5th one??

Grandma, your thread rating went through, someone countered that with a one star rating.

Do you know how some gets the ability to rate threads?

I do not have this capability, and if I did, I would have the integrity to provide constructive criticism, to support the rating.

Of course, it does not take a stretch of imagination to identify the likely candidate, as his screeching can be heard a dozen threads away

 

[FundSurfer]

FS: I gave this place 5 stars Thurs night/Friday moning - what happened to the 5th one??

Not many people are using the rating system, I'm glad that you are. As Griffin described, someone gave this thread a 1 star to counter your giving it a 5 star. Probably the same person who gave me a negative reputation - didn't like my post about Saddam Hussein capture and did not have the stones to say why. Someone like to play games.

I suggest more people should use the thread rating system (stars) and the reputation (the scale icon) to give a fair rating. Griffin, I'm surprised you said you don't have access to the rating system. I did not think anyone was limited. You may want to post to the problem section of the MB.