Bull Pen - June 2006

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FundSurfer said:
Not many people are using the rating system, I'm glad that you are. As Griffin described, someone gave this thread a 1 star to counter your giving it a 5 star. Probably the same person who gave me a negative reputation - didn't like my post about Saddam Hussein capture and did not have the stones to say why. Someone like to play games.

I suggest more people should use the thread rating system (stars) and the reputation (the scale icon) to give a fair rating. Griffin, I'm surprised you said you don't have access to the rating system. I did not think anyone was limited. You may want to post to the problem section of the MB.
Click to expand...

FS,

Where does the scale icon appear. Maybe, I'm just missing it. I can still pick off soda bottles at 300 meters with my M16 :D , but the near sight is going - I suspect I will be wearing reading glasses soon.:(

This is a post submit edit, never mind I found it.
 
Last edited:
Quick comment before the deadline. I moved back in the S-Fund on Friday, so I'm obviously disappointed. However, things are looking a lot like Thursday so I'm sticking around this time. I've set a new stop at 547 on the DWCP. Despite today's action, I still believe a bounce is coming.

While today looks like it will close the gap between the foreign and domestics, I'm sticking with the S for this recovery, until I see the dollar turn. The Euro is currently a key level, but I would really like to see it fall to around 1.2350. If that happens, I'll make my move to the I.
 
I'm a big boy and I can admit when I may have made a mistake when I assumed my nemesis had no fans. It turns out he has one fan - unfortunately he's the Fed Chairman. :D

While my stop at 547 on the DWCP was not actually broken today, I'm beginning to suspect that tomorrow, the axe is going to drop. I'm not throwing in the towel, my inner bull spirit is still healthy - but I am taking Rev's advice to heart and if I see anything other then a healthy dose of green. I'm going into the G.

But that healthy dose of green could be around the corner if by tomorrow it looks like the retest of Thursday's low is a bottom and we start the bounce. On the other hand if I do find myself in the G by the end of the day, then I'm taking a business vacation down the road to the white house to see if I can sell the the big man some muzzles. The only way his poll numbers are coming back is if he can get everyone in the whole damn party to collectively shut the hell up.

Mr. President - silence is golden.

On that note, have a wonderful evening :D
 
Griffin,

I think the Fed goes one more and is done. I could be wrong, but it will show everone he is tough on inflation. He can talk trash then about being tough on inflation. He currently has no creditability. I bought the S&P Friday and today. TA's are telling me to short now so we could see a Big Squeeze coming soon.

I keep saying, Sell when they are yelling and Buy when they are Crying. I know they are crying. I talk to folks at work and they tell me how much money they have lost since the sell-off. They have had it and are going back to the G Fund. The bottom is getting close, but we still need some more PAIN!!!

I'm feeling it! I'm now 75% long.
 
Robo,

I concur with the one more and done. I'm not sure about the bottom being close though. The SS Market could be capsizing.

As far as going long, it's a question of if you can sell today and expect a cheaper buy in point once the market recovery begins. It looks like you are going to get your pain today, with the Nikkei down over 4% and the Eurozone down 2%. Does that mean the domestics couldn't turn around today, not necessarily, the foreign markets are coming to the realization of having to price in a stronger dollar. I guess we will know in a few hours.

How often does the market nose dive, take a week or more wrangling then nose dive again? Not often, in fact it is so rare, I would never bank on it - I want to see it to believe it (today is that day). If Tom is correct in that we may only lose another 3-4%, we may do the majority of that today, if which case, bailing out would be pointless since it would be difficult to peg a recovery from that point. But I will stick to my stop, for better or worse.

The last time we saw multiple step downs was in 2000 and 2001, In which case dumping today would still be near the relative top as we go into a progressive slide for months. Hopefully not on the order of magnitude like 2000.

What has changed from earlier this year and what will change over the summer to get us back into a bull market? I think the answer to that is the perception of the geopolitical situation and our national spending. Every destabilizing geopolitical blow is going to create a new wave of sellers, and the Left has reason to deliver these blows precisely (those bastards :) ) and the Right has zero capability to respond (those bastards :) ) - In case you haven't guessed, I am a conservatice, who is feeling a little abandoned by his own party :p .

We need geopolitical stability - but - the enemy always gets a vote - this is a fundamental premise of all military planning that unfortunately, Rummy doesn't get at a cost that is ultimately driving the yapper on big Ben.

I'm going to get down off my soap box now, and go pick up those boxes of muzzles. Maybe I can recoup my losses with a little street pandering :D
 
I know little to nothing about all this stuff. But, I'm very grateful for all the discussions found on this forum. Not so sure I can digest it all, but, I read almost everyday....an obvious "lurker", since I don't have enough knowledge to comment.

But, I know that over the last couple years, I've learned to "curb" my "greed". Not doing that has got me into a lot of losses. For instance, I'm not sure it's very econmical to jump into the middle of such a "fall" in the market, "hoping" that the bounce is any day now. I've stopped myself a number of times from getting in over that last week or two. Whew...sure glad I did. "How low can it go?!?!", we all say. Just seems if I get greedy and just don't want to miss that "next days bounce" (usually just a simple uneducated guess on my part), THAT is when I lose. I see some of you jumping in, maybe a little at a time, maybe full bore. It seems to me, with the market so low, even if we miss a day or two of an upswing, we're gonna have a good buy in point anyway. I would never try to predict what it's going to do. I read, and hear, all sorts of "educated" predictions. I know predictions are just a fun thing to do....especially, if by chance, you turn out to be correct.....a little bit of an ego builder. But, I find absolutely nobody really knows. Some admit that, and for some the market sheds a light on it. I don't mean it isn't good to try and figure it all out. There's obviously some good indicators, if you're smart enough to see them. I'm not. And I notice that world activities, which seem to be about the most controling factor, don't make their decisions based on most of our predictions derived from these indicators......unfortunately.

I guess my point is, why not just wait till we see some sort of upward movement, at least a couple days or so, to "seemingly" establish a "trend", before even putting a toe into the water? Yes, I want to be "greedy" and not miss one penny of the upswing.....boy, has that taught me lessons in the past. Since just about everyone thinks the upward market will come back, it just seems, with us already below good buy-in levels, that it would be wise to just wait and watch and jump in on the way up. Doesn't always work. But, the less "greed" we trade on, the less risk we take.

I don't mean to use "greed" as a cut to anyone....if so, I would cut myself the most. This post is meant all in good nature from someone who can claim to be very ignorant about the market, but, hopefully with some insight into life, albiet very little. I've got about 2 years till retirement, and my TSP has been 6 digits for a good while now.....from luck and contributions, mostly. I'm grateful....and of course, more careful at this time.

Lobo
 
Lobo said:
I guess my point is, why not just wait till we see some sort of upward movement, at least a couple days or so, to "seemingly" establish a "trend", before even putting a toe into the water?
Click to expand...

The key is the trading range, if the market is trading in a tight range, 2 or 3 days of positive action may be all you get before the market tops, leaving you chasing the market. However, if your expecting a wide trading range, then this can work - which is exactly what you pointed out about the current situation. You will hear people talking about positive retests of bottoms, and finding support. This is what you are describing.

What you mention about an upswing trend is exactly where I'm going (I just moved into the F-fund). I'm going to wait this out for awhile. The market is so oversold a bounce has got to be coming (right?), which might be just what it needs to take the next leg of the plunge.
 
I share everyone's frustrations. People are, by mature, control freaks. We seek safety in data, in historical trends, we talk of oversold bounces, etc.

But tomorrow's market rides on a single number. If it come in low, the markets will have one of their best days ever. If it comes in high there will be a bloodbath.

It does not matter that markets are "oversold" and no technical analysis of past history, up to last evening, will be relevant. Unless someone has insight into what that single number will be, investing for tomorrow might as well be done with the toss of a coin. Economists who have better than average track records seem gloomy, indicating slightly better than even odds that the number will come in low. Yet, even as I write this, I am just being a control freak seeking some little measure of certainty.

Che sera sera....
 
Robo said it all in the day to day thread, but here something to ponder.

14 People made moves today, the net result of those moves (averaging all the pieces together) collectively we moved (this assumes S&S's move was 100% into the I)

17.5% into the G
31.2% into the F
7.8% into the C
21.6% into the S
21.9% into the I

So basically that's a fairly even split between capital preservation and capital deployment. I don't normally do these types of calculations, so I can't speak for what is typical, but I usually walk away from the account thread with a general consensus that the money flow is in one direction or the other.

Not so today:D

There is definitely confusion among the ranks....the fog of war.

That of course means that half of our money is leaning the wrong way in anticipation of the inflation data results.

It's a real shame that so much is riding on this number tomorrow. When you think about it, who does a low inflation rate serve mostly - the baby boomers. Unfortunately, to save the baby boomers from the jaws of inflation, Bernake has caused probably more financial losses in the past three weeks, then the baby boomers would have shelled out on inflation over the next 5 years.

Ben if your listening, shut up.:D
 
I went back through and was rereading Tom's comments and I would recommend reviewing what Tom said on 8 June as well as today's comments.

On the 8th of June, Tom showed at that time that the next stop below 1250 for the S&P was around 1220.

If you extrapolate that to the EFA and DWCP and apply the same logic you get the attached chart.

Note that the line Tom drew to 1220 on the S&P is shown in blue extrapolated to all three funds.

Today the EFA and DWCP broke the blue line and the S&P ended up resting right on top of it.

So what happens tomorrow. As I mentioned in my previous post the one fund that was most neglected was the C-Fund. If you look at the attached chart, the C-Fund would be the one fund I would expect to rally tomorrow.

I do not want to get all doom and gloom on people, but if that support does not hold, where do you go. I looked at the S&P and drew what I think would be the next expected support level (shown in green for the S&P) and extrapolated that to the DWCP (shown in red) and the EFA (also in green).

What I get is pretty scary (Tom mentioned the Fright Train - that fits), we could be looking at as much as another 7-8% in the S&P and EFA and another 15% in the DWCP.

I hope tomorrow, the S&P Finds support and acts as a catalyst for the rest of the market, but if you haven't been using stops, now may be the time to reconsider that strategy. Of course, I am not telling anyone what to do, just a suggestion.

On a completely diffferent subject, I moved to the F-fund despite the fact I had been talking G in most of my posts. The reason I made that choice was because the F-Fund has been doubling the performance of the G-Fund over the last 30 days. I mentioned a few days ago that I was getting bullish on the F-fund, but was going to wait until the FOMC meeting was over before I went there. But when I realized the F is finally starting to show some measurable gains, I saw red, I'm not sure if that makes me a mini bull or, god forbid, a bear, but I'm liking the F for the intermediate term.:D

Siempre Gumby (always flexible)
 
Foreign markets did not like the CPI data and their respective currencies just lost all the ground they had made overnight.

I try to have positive outlook......so if there is a silver lining, at least we won't get caught up in whipsaw action at this level. At this stage of the game, the worst thing to do would be accumulate a progressive series of losses as the market steps down, so if it drops to the bottom, maybe that's for the best. Of course that only applies if your in capital preservation mode.

Now is a perfectly good time to panic:D, unfortunately, that is only half a joke.
 
Follow the links on the calendar under Release from what I read they predected that CPI would be even to lower. That's not what was reported today.:confused: Of course I may not understand what I'm looking at. :D
Norman
 
Griffin said:
Robo said it all in the day to day thread, but here something to ponder.

14 People made moves today, the net result of those moves (averaging all the pieces together) collectively we moved (this assumes S&S's move was 100% into the I)

17.5% into the G
31.2% into the F
7.8% into the C
21.6% into the S
21.9% into the I

So basically that's a fairly even split between capital preservation and capital deployment. I don't normally do these types of calculations, so I can't speak for what is typical, but I usually walk away from the account thread with a general consensus that the money flow is in one direction or the other.

Not so today:D

There is definitely confusion among the ranks....the fog of war.

That of course means that half of our money is leaning the wrong way in anticipation of the inflation data results.

It's a real shame that so much is riding on this number tomorrow. When you think about it, who does a low inflation rate serve mostly - the baby boomers. Unfortunately, to save the baby boomers from the jaws of inflation, Bernake has caused probably more financial losses in the past three weeks, then the baby boomers would have shelled out on inflation over the next 5 years.

Ben if your listening, shut up.:D
Click to expand...



For anyone who might care, I shifted out of the I fund on May 31, 2006 and into the G Fund 100%. I have ridden the I Fund 100% since January of 2004, making only one transfer for about a week back in January of 2005 only to get back in 100% same month.

I do plan on getting back into equities but only after I see a significant change in interest rate policies that various CB's the world over are currently undertaking. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has literally been an ATM to the world giving away free currency for quite some time now and they appear to be reversing that policy. This has begun and will continue to create havoc throughout pretty much ALL markets the world over and this trend will continue probably through the rest of this year. In fact, short pretty much everything in sight until this change in policy occurs. We can only hope that more momentum does not continue to build.

Tom, I wish your son a speedy recovery. Having helped coach my son's basketball and baseball teams this year, I know how difficult it is to see them get hurt. Good luck all.
 
"I shifted out of the I fund on May 31, 2006 and into the G Fund 100%. I have ridden the I Fund 100% since January of 2004..." See, now that's exactly what I would have done if I could get a do-over. I wish I was smart and had ice water running through my vains.:notrust:
 
nnuut said:
Follow the links on the calendar under Release from what I read they predected that CPI would be even to lower. That's not what was reported today.:confused: Of course I may not understand what I'm looking at. :D
Norman
Click to expand...

Yeah, this is wierd,

The only explanation I can come up with is that the S&P came to rest yesterday on what should be a relatively strong support level. Europe reacted to the CPI data, as would be expected, but apparantly the market was more focused on the S&P's support level then the CPI. Now it looks like the reality of the CPI data is kicking in.

I am going to assume this downward trend is going to continue until I see something solid that say's otherwise. I'm not risking another step down.
 
Here's the money flow from today:

G - 25.9%
F - 30.2%
C - 4.2%
S - 8.3%
I - 31.4%

Looks like the turn on the dollar attracted some interest, but still 56% capital preservation. Looks like were getting more cautious, slightly
 
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