Bull Pen - Fall 2006

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For those of us who joined the herd to the G Fund Friday and took a bath in the process, what should we look for Monday morning as a signal to accept the loss and move back in, or a signal to sit tight for another day?
 
Warrenlm said:
For those of us who joined the herd to the G Fund Friday and took a bath in the process, what should we look for Monday morning as a signal to accept the loss and move back in, or a signal to sit tight for another day?
Click to expand...
I'm going to wait until I see some indicators that there has been a turn around of the downward trend. Stay out of the "I" fund as long as the dollar is on the rise. This may be the BIG CORRECTION they have been predicting for 3 months. Got to be very careful with this one, be nimble!!!
Welcome to the MB! Good luck with your investments!:D
Norman
 
I am very much an amateur and the market often does the opposite of what I do. I am 100% G for the time being. I am not sure this is the start of the correction we are expecting. Whether it is or it is not, I believe we will see too much volatility to conclusively determine a trend. Even if Monday is a (seemingly) good day, one day does not a trend make. Somethings you may want to look for is the price of oil stabilizing or headed further down (IMO good for stocks). No one knows what the FOMC will do, but the talking heads can move the market by saying they expect (or do not expect) the Fed to raise rates next meeting.

The market received good news last week concerning the job numbers and apparently shrugged it off; not a good sign IMO. I also believe I saw an article in the WSJ about large insider selling.

Dell
 
Warrenlm,

The one million dollar question! If you ask some they will likely tell you to "be right sit tight" and "DCA at a lower price". I on the other hand trade in and out frequently and plan to sit out next week. Last year I took it in the shorts during this time frame. Many, both professional and armature, have the opinion that a 5% - 10% correction is due and I for one would like it to happen now.

I have read many TA's that are bullish long term but cautious short term because of the lack of a "correction. My signal is, <everyone say it together>, negative divergence. Basically the stock go up and the indicators are going the opposite direction. Only one problem. They don't tell you what day it is going to happen.

Here is my chart.

Good luck and good trading.:D
 
This is very good advise!

Show-me said:
Warrenlm,

The one million dollar question! If you ask some they will likely tell you to "be right sit tight" and "DCA at a lower price". I on the other hand trade in and out frequently and plan to sit out next week. Last year I took it in the shorts during this time frame. Many, both professional and armature, have the opinion that a 5% - 10% correction is due and I for one would like it to happen now.

I have read many TA's that are bullish long term but cautious short term because of the lack of a "correction. My signal is, <everyone say it together>, negative divergence. Basically the stock go up and the indicators are going the opposite direction. Only one problem. They don't tell you what day it is going to happen.

Here is my chart.

Good luck and good trading.:D
Click to expand...
 
It really broke me up watching the Buckeye fans crying - the underdogs stomped the nut into the ground. They even ended the game 19 seconds sooner while on the 3 yard line - the GATORS were showing humility or the score would have been 49 to 14.
 
Watch the technology sector this year. I think we might be headed into another run similar to the 90's.
 
It's good to see the DJTA with relative performance along with the NYA (NYSE Composite). The hoofer seismograph is starting to record some quick spikes. Anybody ever seen a 400 point rally - get ready for potential lift off.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
If the bull holds today we will have new all-time highs in: DJIA, Wilshire 5000, R2K, NYA and a new six year high on the SPX. Only 100 more points and the S&P 500 will register its' new all-time high. You really gotta appreciate the fear factor in this market - keep'em all out as long as possible. Besides, inorder to really learn anything in this game you have to take it on the chin from time to time. How many times have you seen a price pattern break support and then promptly go equal and opposite and blow you out? The Ducati cycle rider ignores those occurrences.
 
Absolutely - my real preference is to break all the rules and leverage down on a stock when it takes it on the chin. I however do force myself to also leverage on the upside - it's so much easier. There is nothing like buying them when they are rising - let the profits run. I posted in my thread the other day that I've discovered the holy grail to investing: The wealthier you are, the more you will be able to withstand short-term shocks in the equity markets and focus on making long-term investments. The same applies to my TSP accumulations - you have to be able to absorb the body blows when the pain is delivered. So many timers just cannot get their hands around that concept. Pain is the universal communicator and often times standing firm is duly rewarded. I like to remind myself that time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. Snort.
 
Yes, I realize I'm a board member contrarian and I like that just fine. There is room enough for all investing strategies - the sign on the front door says Tsptalk and not Tsptimingtalk. At any rate we garner a lot of guests that benefit from our discussions regarding all types of investing information and philosophies. Good stead on your TA section - I'm sure we will all learn further valuable information and techniques. I need help finding the top.
 
Birchtree said:
Absolutely - my real preference is to break all the rules and leverage down on a stock when it takes it on the chin. I however do force myself to also leverage on the upside - it's so much easier. There is nothing like buying them when they are rising - let the profits run. I posted in my thread the other day that I've discovered the holy grail to investing: The wealthier you are, the more you will be able to withstand short-term shocks in the equity markets and focus on making long-term investments. The same applies to my TSP accumulations - you have to be able to absorb the body blows when the pain is delivered. So many timers just cannot get their hands around that concept. Pain is the universal communicator and often times standing firm is duly rewarded. I like to remind myself that time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. Snort.
Click to expand...

Yes, I can truly attest to this. If I would had stayed put in (I) during the summer sell-off, I would had gained back ALL my 7%+ loss and then gained another 10% and ended the year in positive territory. So, staying put and taking the punches as they come will eventually pay off.

God Bless:)
 
Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday 01/11/07


www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW + 73 on 1300 net advances


NASDAQ COMP. + 26 on 1050 net advances


SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish


STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:

On the front page of our December letter, we made the point that
the Dow’s yearly rally from its low in either November or December
rarely peaks until sometime in January. That is one of the reasons we
felt that the blue chip index would beat its erstwhile peak achieved on
December 27. Today it closed at a new all time high, thus meeting that
part of the expectation.

We also said that there is a price consideration. Since 1968, the
average rally has been 10.6% and there have only been three times when
this uptrend showed a total movement of less than 5%. So far the Dow
rally from its low on November 3rd has been 4.4%. Based on this
consideration, we would expect more upside before this month ends.

Be assured however, that we will not hesitate to move to the
sidelines if we see a marked deterioration in the tape action.
Historical tendencies can be very helpful, but the prime indicator is
price itself.

Today, the rally occurred in spite of a rate increase by the Bank
of England which took the wind out of Treasury bonds. Help came in the
form a recent oversold condition, but also from advances in Microsoft
and Genentech. The former received kind words from J.P. Morgan and the
latter beat estimates and guided higher.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Initial claims dropped 29,000 to 299,000. This was lower than the
expected 320,000. On Friday we get retail sales, the import price index
and inventories.
On the stock front, the aforementioned Genentech and Microsoft
gained 4% each. Aflac was upgraded by Raymond James and rose 3%. Borg
Warner guided higher and jumped 11%.
On the negative side, California Water was downgraded by Janney
Montgomery Scott and sank 9%. Restoration Hardware lost 10% on same
store sales and Hornbeck Offshore guided lower and crashed 22%.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
Mutual fund investors should be in a 100% invested position.

Short term ETF traders are long the Russell 2000 ETF, symbol IWM
from 77.04. Move your stop to 77.75 or sell “market on close”, MOC if
the IWM is negative at 4:00 Eastern time on Friday.

OTHER MARKETS

We are on a sell for bonds as of December 22.

We are on a sell for the Euro and a buy for the dollar as of December
13.

We are on a sell on gold as of January 5.

We are on a sell for crude oil as of January 4.

We are bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S.,
Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.


http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html
 
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