Bull Pen - Fall 2006

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Rod,

It takes creativity to stay long....don't it? The SPX rally from March '03 went up 47%, the current SPX rally has only gone up 17% - this is a multi-year bull market. Any corrections will only help reinvigorate the bull. I have previously described this bull as a secular mega bull trend and was soundly sneered at by a few of our unruly members. Let them eat cake - give me manure. We will soon hit another new all-time high on the transports and then get off the tracks because the stampede will be in full force. General public - you want some come get some.
 
The DJTA and DJUI are leading the market today or at least not backing up. The seismograph is detecting some spikes showing amplitude. The bulls are circling.
 
The Dow 65 Composite Index closed at new all-time highs yesterday - may do it again today. I'd like to see the transports go positive before the close.
 
Birchtree said:
....The bulls are circling.
Click to expand...

Bulls dont circle.....vultures do. So does water going down a toilet. Get out now and buy in next week at the 15.70 ish level. Maybe lower. Increase your shares. The pain is needless. It's not a requirement. It is not a due that has to be paid. And...It CAN be avoided.
 
Last edited:
Hi Doll,

My greater fear is I'll DCA at $16.00. I'm truly anticipating an aggressive move to the upside to start at any moment - may come from out of the blue. The risk is being out not being in. The Ducati hasn't had a good ride in awhile.
 
Alcoa has announced they are going to buy back 10% of their float in the next 3 years - that's 87 million shares. They also increased their dividend 13%. We may begin to see more and more bullish news like this going forward. Snort.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
wht00ss,

Any opinions on the Advantage Program that MER offers? I did 305 trades last year and only 2 so far this year. I'd like to be in position to continue buying all the way to the top - doing the DCA approach as well as reinvesting my dividends. A DJIA of 17,000 is a ways off yet, but I know it will arrive.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
The NYSE cumulative A/D line achieved another multi-decade high of 173418.00 this week of 1/19/07. Significant price tops do not coincide with NYSE A/D line new highs. Back in June'06 we had a cluster of 3 NYSE Zweig UD volume thrusts of 9 to 1. It has now been about six months since this latest cluster of 3 Zweig thrusts and the SPX is up a bit over 13.5% - in most cases, the nine-month time frame exhibits the highest returns with one year following a Zweig thrust cluster. Since 1960 the appreciation for the SPX has been around 18.50% - so there may be more room to climb. Buy energy for the secular ride. And remember if you automate, you don't have to think about it every month. Snort.
 
A few comments from Bill Gross during the Barron's roudtable discussion from last week. "Oil is about 8% of the total CPI package. When oil prices decline by 20% or so, you see a 11/2% to 2% subtraction from core CPI. The consumer-price index will be in the 1% zone, plus or minus, by midyear."
 
According to Henry: Not to worry about a top until the Barnes Index reaches a level of 80 or above. We are currently at 56.80 - so there is plenty more room to wiggle. The A/D line is not diverting, and it's very rare the price will top without A/D divergence. Snort.
 
"These types of very long term base patterns invariably give rise to Secular, Multi-Year Bull Market moves, which in my view is precisely what is coming next for this group. Within Elliott, the third of the third is known as the Point of Recognition, the epicenter of an enormous advance...."

http://www.financialsense.com/market/wrapup.htm by Barbera on 1/23/07.
 
Tuesday, January 23, 2007

If at First You Don't Succeed...
You know thw old saying if at first you don't succeed try
try again. Well, I think this could apply pretty well to
the market's attempts to rally from the current short-term
oversold condition. Today the market was strong under the
surface with breadth nearly 2 to 1 positive despite prices
being down slightly for the Nasdaq. I expect tomorrow the
generals will follow the troops and we will see a nice
bounce higher. The earning news is good tonight with YHOO
and SUNW up big in After Hours trading, so that should
provide a positive spark tomorrow. Remember, my
intermediate-term model is neutral so I am not expecting a
long lasting rally, but the market is definitely overdue
for a nice short-term rally. It will be interesting to see
if Flipper is still holding onto that $50 Million long side
bet in the leveraged Nasdaq fund tonight.
posted by zentrader at 7:09 PM 1 comments links to this post

Don't Be Fooled
Don't be fooled by the weakness of today's apparently
"failed" bounce. The reason I say this is because breadth
on the Nasdaq is currently running positive by about 2 to 1
today. So, today is a bit of a "stealth" rally so far.
Breadth tends to precede price so I still expect we are
going to see a nice rally before the week is out.

http://www.zentrader13.blogspot.com/
 
robo said:
Breadth tends to precede price so I still expect we are
going to see a nice rally before the week is out.
Click to expand...

Sounds fine to me. I want to experience 1995, since I missed it the first time around (fresh out of high school, surviving Parris Island, the stock market was the last thing on my mind)
 
fabijo,

Looks like we're getting bulled up for 1995. If I make the kind of money I made today during the next 5 or 6 trading days I'll have achieved my January goal. The MCO (McClellan Oscillator) is the demarcation between bulls and the bears, and SPX breadth MCO is back above the zero line and has generated another buy signal. The broad market is leading and as long as this relationship remains buy the dips.
 
I'll settle for SPX of 1440 on the day - we might be coiled for a quick rebound. We had a strong move to the upside yesterday on the SPX breadth MCO, the key resistance will be the mid November highs at the +50 level. If we can take out this high, it's highly probable that the SPX will challenge its all-time highs of 1528.22 on this specific sequence. Go Bears to support the Super Bowl theory for the DJIA.
 
http://www.realmoney.com

The Jim Cramer blog says don't pull the trigger. Do nothing. Wait. Study. Watch. And ignore the rate hike drumbeat.

Also Gary Smith says the lifting of dark clouds could result in the mother of all short covering rallies.
 
"...the Dow and S&P 500 are very overbought, for instance more over-extended above their 200-day moving averages than they have managed in many years, more overbought by that measurement even than at the market top in 2000". In a 3 of 3 scenario you should expect high sentiment numbers for a prolonged period of time and you should expect many analysts to note that technical analysis doesn't work anymore as we move higher.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/tac/harding.html
 
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