Bull Pen - Fall 2006

Birchtree,

I know you scheduled a rally for the USM for this afternoon, but did you also schedule a small one for this morning? :D
 
I'm waiting for the infamous venturi effect to pull more capitulating bears into the market on a continous basis - this should last well into February. Jingle Bells.
 
There were 585 new yearly highs on the NYSE yesterday, no wonder ... and all we need is 12 points for a new all-time high in the DJIA.
 
When Goldilocks says wow what an angle of tumefaction - it's time to perhaps step out, but which way. Look at the angle of ascent longer term of the NYAD. The more acute the angle, the more powerful the trend of money flow is. Too much Sugar maybe. We are at the most acute angle right now where the only real comparison was in the 2003 period the same time in which both the 9 month and 4 year cycles last bottomed together (from March forward). This market is screaming higher and nothing is going to stand in its way - not even the geek squad. This market is growing stronger on fear. I'm looking to gauge how high is high. If the RA-NYAD moves to new all-time highs it won't matter intermediate to longer term basis as it will be different. Jingle Bells.
 
My take on a Primary wave 3 would either have its starting point in 1974 or 1982 depending on which chart you look at. This would then open the door for a Primary wave 4 in the decade of 2010 - 2020, then Primary 5 up after that.
 
Trust the trend...Rudolph is on steroids this year...
Market Update

12:00 pm : Albeit initially struggling to fully embrace today's encouraging employment report, more evidence to suggest the soft landing targeted by the Fed remains on track is now supporting typical end-of-year bullishness.
Given the Fed's increased policy guidance from "incoming" data, today's jobs report being the last key piece of data policy makers will get their hands on before they reconvene next Tuesday has garnered added attention.
Before the bell, the Labor Dept. showed that nonfarm payrolls rose 132K in November (consensus 105K) while payrolls figures for October and September were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 42K new jobs. With investors concerned about the pace of economic growth, continued payroll gains will keep consumer spending rising at a decent clip, especially as there is also moderate wage growth. Hourly earnings rose just 0.2%, below the 0.3% economists were anticipating.
Strong upside leadership from the majority of S&P industry groups is also providing a floor of buying support. Of the nine economic sectors trading higher, Technology is pacing the way as two days of profit taking sparks some bargain hunting interest and helps investors look past some warnings in the chip space. Xilinx (XLNX 25.05 -1.39) is plunging 5.3% after lowering its Q3 sales forecasts. Apple Computer (AAPL 89.04 +2.00) recouping most of the 3.0% it lost yesterday is among the sector's best performers (+2.3%).
Providing the bulk of current support, though, is the Financials sector. Dow component Citigroup (C 52.31 +1.60) soaring 3.2% to a new 52-week high is the biggest reason the rate-sensitive sector has been able to overlook a sell-off in Treasuries. Bond yields are rising across the yield curve after the
 
Crazy market I guess the Fed will pause rates. Can we trust the numbers.


Absolutely not. Think back to the last months' numbers. Those numbers had hughe revisions with unemployment at 4.4%? That was pure BS. Did you noticed how Oct. numbers were revised down from 92k? I have a feeling next month's numbers will be lower and Nov's 132k will be revised down.
 
Absolutely not. Think back to the last months' numbers. Those numbers had hughe revisions with unemployment at 4.4%? That was pure BS. Did you noticed how Oct. numbers were revised down from 92k? I have a feeling next month's numbers will be lower and Nov's 132k will be revised down.

I'm trying to figure out why they would pad #'s Slow it down?
 
I'm trying to figure out why they would pad #'s Slow it down?

As you know, employment is a lagging indicator. My gut feeling on the revisions to OCT's numbers was political. Sooner or later, they will have to "pay the piper".

Just look at how small the revision was on Nov's numbers. Did they finally figured out how to count?
 
... what if the Fed just hints that lowering rates in the future is being considered in their actual statment... lots of bullish queues appearing on the C/S/I funds. Maybe we're still in the thrill/excitement mode since everything seems to show measured bull moves, if you zoom out of the charts, we still haven't hit that euphoric zone... we're just resuming the larger trend after several years of Fed rate hikes.
 
-?-
There could be a change in the overall mood of the market. We have been playing with the lube factor and the rate factor for so long, did we miss seeing some changed market fundamentals.....:blink:

Is the trend of the last several months going to be what the market looks like?
 
... what if the Fed just hints that lowering rates in the future is being considered in their actual statment... lots of bullish queues appearing on the C/S/I funds. Maybe we're still in the thrill/excitement mode since everything seems to show measured bull moves, if you zoom out of the charts, we still haven't hit that euphoric zone... we're just resuming the larger trend after several years of Fed rate hikes.

I think you just hit the nail on the head. Today's move in the dollar gives Bernanke some room to hint at a rate cut. Heck, I think it might have been a coordinated effort. It reminds me of Bernanke's talk with Marie back in May. If they do hint at a rate cut on Tuesday, it'll will be a great day to be in the market.
 
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The anticipation will be that there will be sequential rate reductions. There's nothing yet suggesting that we're close to finishing this move, money on the sidelines is plentiful. The VIX remains low and this smells like an Elliott Primary wave now and if we get new all-time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD, it will be of Primary degree. The trend has been undeniable - a great lesson in what a third wave looks and feels like....learn from it my friends. Silver Bells.
 
The smart money has been long for the last 200 points. Anyone who bought the summer lows or got on along the way is not going to sell this market until January 2nd. And if they are really smart they won't sell then either. I think the Dow Theory Primary buy confirmation will be the seminal event for the bull to stampede - head spinning type of lift off.
 
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