Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[mlk_man]

Depends on who you ask. I'll PM you with what the top timers are saying. The trend remains up for now.

So what are the "top timers" up this year? I'm curious. How much do they charge?

 

[robo]

So what are the "top timers" up this year? I'm curious. How much do they charge?

Mlk_man,

Mostly buy and hold type investors like the Big Birchtree, but some are more active. I do like the service. I use them has a guide for my active accounts. When the trend is up dip buying is sweet, when the trend is down it's painful.

I use the recommdations from them to determine the trend. I use them long-term, calendar studies, sentiment, and seasonality short-term. Works most of the time, but as we all know Mr. Market will let us know who's in charge, and fool us from time to time. Calendar studies works pretty good! If your not sure how it works I'll PM you with the data. Your system works pretty darn good. Your YTD returns are excellent. I'm a very conservative investor and stay in the G Fund most of the time with my TSP.

I trade frequently in my brokerage account. Played it to conservative this year, but I'm beating the G Fund. Hoping to earn 10% this year. As long as Mr. Market doesn't throw me a BIG CURVE BALL should be ok!

Timers are Bullish, and that could be a contrarian indicator. However, the trend remains up for now so we can't fight the tape. Also remember, these are the Top Timers

http://www.timerdigest.com/

 

[robo]

Robo, when are you gonna start your own account thread?

Mlk_man,

I thought about it a few times, but my plan was to be more of a lurker since I'm actively trading my brokerage account and it requires more time, but I just can't keep my BIG POST SHUT.

I have always tried to post both Bullish and Bearish comments so we can keep are guard up. I have tried some shorts this year and made some money during the May sell-off, but lately not a good thing in a up trending market.

Mr. Market will have his Bull Steak eventually, but for now we must enjoy the smell of manure, and watch the train. As Birchtree points out you have to pay to play now. All my moves now are short-term.

Thinking of one this week. Short-term play last part of November thru the first few days of December. I would first like to see weakness early in the week or I'll stay on the sidelines. Still trading plenty in my Brokerage account, but I have to be careful not to Free Ride. Learning to trade can be costly.

However, I have learned some important things; Buy stop orders, Sell stop orders, trailing stops. The point is you can't ride down or add to a losing trade.

Trying to do more lurking in the future and just posting links on occasion.

Now can we just make some money next week! I'll be watching the dollar close. Henry thinks the dollar will be ok, but we will see. I want to see how Japan handles the dollar plunge, and if China will start dumping dollars.

The geopolitical situation is heating up again so we need to keep a eye on that. If something sparks a sell-off at these prices it could be quick and very sharp. The Bulls are in control, the Fed is pumping M3, best time of the year to be in stocks.

What could go wrong? HMMM!

 

[Birchtree]

I am sorely tempted to throw some spill money at BBA (Bombay). They are on their worse bottom in a long time at $1.36 per share. I'd have to do at least 10,000 shares to make any movement profitable. I did this play about 15 years ago when it was $5.00 and I took it to $10.00 and went home. This would be a classic contrarian play against all odds of common sense - I'll sleep on it. Why do this - because I like their furniture.

 

[Birchtree]

Forget that BBA - better choices available. Over 90% of the S&P 500 stocks are on the down side today - but it looks worse than it really is, mostly nickles and dimes to the downside. Tomorrow could be explosive to the upside. Stay with the positive trend - this is healthy.

 

[Birchtree]

We were due for a short-term drop, considering that the S&P 500 hasn't had a decline of 2% from a high since mid-July. That streak is still intact, since the broad index now stands 1.7% off its recent high set last Wednesday. This is the longest period without a 2% correction in 20 years. It just shows how strong this market has been.

 

[mayday]

We were due for a short-term drop, considering that the S&P 500 hasn't had a decline of 2% from a high since mid-July. That streak is still intact, since the broad index now stands 1.7% off its recent high set last Wednesday. This is the longest period without a 2% correction in 20 years. It just shows how strong this market has been.

People have been touting correction for some time now. This could have been the bull bucking off a few bears.

 

[Birchtree]

If I had another $100,000 I'd buy this market all the way up - but I spent my cookies on the big drop. Now all I can do is ride and wait to take some profits after the first of the year. I might have another take over going on and if so I can pre-empt that and get some cash - I hate being broke.

 

[robo]

Robo, what's your take on the dollar?

Ugly, ugly, ugly! I have no idea, but I do follow Henry pretty close and he thinks we are getting over-sold here. However, he does point out anything is possible in the markets. That's why we should be on guard for a dollar rally as well as a continued sell-off. The market will get us if we let it. We should not plan on an automatic decline next year. We must watch Ben and Crew to see if they pull some dollar strength out of their hats!

Comments from the Bear Cave 11-30-06 from Henry!


James,

Henry's point was, Can the USD Index continue to decline from current levels? -- probability now suggests that it is more prudent to buy the U.S. Dollar Index than to sell it. What's your take?


In Henry's opinion Large Cap US Socks will out perform International Stocks in 2007. Now that is yet to be seen, but when Henry talks I do listen.

We are now clearly at the “breaking point” – but all that talk about the “imminent crash” of the dollar really that valid? This author is still looking for a rally in the U.S. dollar index going into the end of this year.

Stay tuned James, but lets also keep our guard up in case Henry is correct.

He has proven to me many times his opinion is worth listening to.

Thanks for your opinion. I think Henry's point on the dollar is more of a shorter-term outlook. He does trade and goes long and short on the DOW.

Dollar down again in early trading, Japan up, oil lower.






http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=66185

 

[Birchtree]

One has to recognize the fact that as long as longer term yields continue to move lower, the growth stocks are going to start to really wake up fairly soon. That means C fund outperformance coming. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6413.htm

The mid cycle slowdown periods of the mid 1980's and mid 1990's were accompanied by relatively meaningful expansions in stock prices. Declining long term rayes are a very powerful equity market aphrodisiac, similar to aspartame! LOL.

 

[fabijo]

Here are two charts from 12/1/93 to 12/1/06. One is the CBOE 10 year treasury yield index and the other is the S&P 500. Looking at the treasury yield index, I cannot see how it says recession. All during 1995, while the S&P was on a relentless climb up, the 10 year treasury yield was on its way down.

Only time will really tell us.

 

[ayla]

Deleted my post here about article by Paul Krugman in New York Times about Bond market predicting recession. Please see Bear Cave thread for further info. Apologies for confusion.

 

[robo]

SENTIMENT NOT BULLISH ENOUGH FOR TOP
12/1/2006



Sentiment Not Bullish Enough for Top
by Carl Swenlin

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio is calculated by dividing the cash flow for bear plus money market funds by cash flow into bull funds. As the Ratio index moves between its trading range extremes, we can gage the amount of bullish or bearish sentiment in the stock market. See the chart below. In June the Ratio hit a level that signalled that an important price low had been hit, and, even though the S&P 500 has rallied about 14% since then, the Ratio only traveled about half the distance to the overbought side of its range (red line), indicating that investors still have not fully accepted the reality of the rally.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/061201_rr.html


Carl Swenlin is one of the best! The trend is up until it's not!

Free advice for folks with active accounts.

Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics if conditions change.

 

[robo]

December 02nd, 2006
Market Update: This week made Great Adventure seem boring.
By Dominick

The Nov 18th update stated:


For next week, I have 2 ideas for the continuation of the current 4th before continuing on again to new highs. If, by chance, the market has its own plan, we have a line in the sand close by and stand ready to go short if we cross. But, give me SPX 1392/1395, and I’m long for a possible 1420 target!

We might be able to put in some type of high in the next week or so just before getting ready for the November Jobs report, followed by another Fed meeting.
After that, Santa Claus and his famous rally might be stopping by for a visit.


Just when you had started to forget that markets could trade to the downside as well as up, the S&P opened lower Monday and never looked back! I was hoping to buy SPX 1392/95 but the selling never stopped that day. Of course, the entire exercise proved to be only a bear trap because the S&P rallied on Wednesday like Monday never happened. Talk about a roller coaster ride!

I’m starting to sound repetitive, but it just seems like this market will not stop whipsawing until every bear’s spent their last dollar. From here, I’m getting the feeling that’s there is only two ways the market stops rallying and finally capitulates to the bears. The first, which I’m not interested in seeing happen, is some world event, some terrorist attack or geopolitical violence, or anything. We can put in a new high, but something like that will make Monday’s selloff look like kindergarten. The other way, which seems inevitable, global shakedown or not, is to have a final capitulation blowoff. I think the last 20-30 points of this move will be put on and removed within days if not hours.




http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=25266#25266

 

[Birchtree]

Mr Krugman, bless his top hat, has predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions. He never chanes his stripes and I never bother with him.

 

[Birchtree]

Who said we're gonna have four more days of the this - acrimonious bull.

 

[pointman72]

Birchtree,

I'm ready. I used gorilla glue this time. No more falling off this monster.

 

[Birchtree]

Utility stocks are frequently a useful leading indicator of general market trends. The DJUA often hits its high well before the final high of the market as a whole. Fed officials have long been puzzled by the market's confidence that the next move in rates will be down, that rates will be cut soon, and that this rate cut will be the first in a series.

 

[Birchtree]

"The Treasury cannot help but be pleased to see a gradual decline in the dollar." says Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International.