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Re: Feels Like a Southernly Storm

Bullitt said:
Thought you'd have more in G than F based on your previous comments about F fund. I always maintain a partial allocation to G, nothing wrong with that.
Click to expand...

I've spent my working life watching equities and only really using the bond fund to smooth things out and as a resting spot. Most of my investment experience has occurred from 1996 on, so most of it has been in the 9/11 era onward - which is a weird spot for bond investing.

Anyway, the 'F Fund' has declined by 5.5% from it's recent(ish) high so I think it is safe(ish). That should take care of a point of FED hikes. The problem is that this is a weird economic environment that I have never seen. I don't know how to invest in stagflation, but I do know that earning a return less than inflation is a 'no bueno' move. The Treasury is taking advantage of folks sitting in the G Fund. Inflation is 7%, but the G Fund is earning <2% so folks in the G Fund lost 5%+ last year without even knowing it. So, F it is.

However, sometimes not losing is gaining.

Tough times ahead.

Anyone out there with investment experience in the 'Jimma'' years? :eek::ban:
 
Feels Like a Southernly Storm

The confidence displayed by Mr. Market is quite stunning!!!

I firmly believe that
  • a softer, more caring foreign policy
  • a little bit more government largess
  • a lot more taxes on the rich and famous
  • and, a smattering of additional regulation
will solve the pressing issues of the day. This downturn is so unexpected.

I'm just happy I showed my confidence early(ish). I will likely show my increased confidence if I can suss out a dead cat bounce. At least my allocation is 'self-correcting':smile:
 
WorkFE said:
"dead cat bounce"
Is that before or after the Fed Meeting :worried:
Click to expand...

Personally, I'm not too worried about the FED meeting. If they are doing their job they will start raising the prime rate. We are no longer faced with deflation...

This cat could be so dead I might have to show my confidence in it by kicking it into the weeds and waiting for a revival. We are at, or close to, a -25% return on the S-Fund from it's high. The S-Fund will lead the C-Fund and the I-Fund will totter along. The F-Fund is at > 5% correction and should be safe, but I'm thinking it will turn over as well. My current allocation is actually less aggressive than my conservative allocation. My next move will be a 2008 move.

:eek: :sick: :(
 
Yesterday looked like a 'dead cat bounce',
but I like my dead cats to bounce a few times
before I start adding risk to my moola and investments​

:cheesy:

What I mean is that yesterday could have been 'lock step' and/or automated buyers that targeted a -10% correction. Same with the small caps (-20%). The -%'s were just too close to trigger numbers.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Boghie, What is your 2008 move?
Click to expand...

I spent a LOT of time 50% - 60% out of the market (G/F) between November 2007 and April 2009. A LOT of time. Time well spent.

I was 14 years younger back then. I could take more risk. My guess is a 2008 style retreat and retrenchment would be about 60% - 70% out of the market. The ugly of uglies is that the F Fund is not really safe now. It may have 'corrected' already, but it seems to be flopping over in concert with C/S/I. That is weird. Normally, investors and speculators will park their money in bonds during a correction. Nowadays with the prime rate ready to be bumped they are moving their money elsewhere. Where, you ask? I not know. Cash sucks too (G). Guaranteed loss to inflation.

What a mess.

I DO NOT LIKE the late market frown. Don't like it at all.

Let's Go Brandon!!!
 
The close did not look good last night, not at all...

But, today looks great...

Has the cat revived from his slumber, or did he croak in the cold and is now bouncing off the garage floor. Time will tell...

If the kitty survived and is stirring in the bushes this big cat shall hunt. I'm getting hungry and the kibbles I get from G/F kinda suck. I like meat. Lots of meat.
 
Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!!!

Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!!!

At least the price of oil is going up!!!

Is that good. Is that good?

:banana::banana:

:eek:
 
Re: Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!!!

WorkFE said:
Uh, NO
Click to expand...
:D

How about, at least we aren't at the highest inflation rate in 42 years - that would be 13%+ :laugh:

Trying to be positive here. I can't be a perma-grouch.

We still have about 6% to go before we can claim our just rewards.

We can do it if we try. Maybe goose the economy a bit because... elections!!!
 
Re: Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!!!

WorkFE said:
Optimism is a start. :smile:
Click to expand...

My optimism and confidence are showing in my allocation.

It is not often that I am 60% out of the market.

Such optimism keeps me young.

And, pyramidicle

:nuts:
 
Re: Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!!!

By the way...

Yesterday's 2.6% - 3.8% gain is what happens at the beginning of a market recovery. That is why I am almost always 'in the market' to a decent extent.

By no means do I think yesterday is portending a market recovery. I think we may have found the bottom and will sit here doing nothing for quite some time. I think we have found the 'New Normal' till things change and folks want to take investment risk. Anyone want to invest big bucks into an oil pipeline from a nice stable ally like Canada to our refineries in the Gulf states. Beuller, Beuller... You would be an idiot to do so. Yeah, the option could be made available with the stroke of an Executive Order Pen, but it was kyboshed after money was spent and pipes were laid at the stroke of an Executive Order Pen on the first day in office for this Executive. Banana Republic stuff.

So, wait we must...

And, to think I was figuring on retiring early. I needed about a 15% - 20% gain and the sunset would be beautiful. Now, with a -8% 'gain' not so much. I have no desire to eat Alpo, so wait I must. The American public won't deal with this crap.
 
Re: Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!!!

Great points Boghie! :smile: Agree and I also do not want to fill up on Alpo during my golden years... Lol :cheesy:
 
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