Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

I was going to drop this in DA's thread, but that would be totally hijacking it. Anyway, thoughts from the thoughtless regarding similarity between now and 2008:

BTW, the 2008 crash appeared to flatten in October. I waited a bit and things had leveled off - right about the decline we are currently at.

I moved increased my C/S/I by about 30% (if memory serves - you can see it in my IFT trades). That afternoon the C dumped by 8%, the next day it dumped by another 8%. I went from +7% YtoD to -11% YtoD in the time it took an IFT to process.

Currently, this is not like 2008. 2008 was horrid. This can/will be horrid in a different way, but it can be softened by policy change. If inflationary policies do not change there will be NO hiding place in our investment options. In 2008, the G and F Funds were safe havens. I think the F-Fund may work now to some extent, but the G-Fund is a guaranteed loser to inflation. You might think - and, in a way you will be correct - that you are not losing money in the G-Fund, but 8% or 9% inflation absolutely puts you in the red. If inflation lasts a couple/few years your retirement is in jeopardy. If the FED can kill inflation quickly than we can invest in G/F and ride things out without too much damage. To do so the FED will have to pull trillions of dollars of slush fund money (theirs and the Treasuries) out of the market. It can no longer be a measured, organized process. It will have to be quick, nasty, huge interest rate hikes.

Ugly out there

Unforced errors. We were guaranteed a correction, we are now in a bear, and we are likely in a stagflation loop. A mess.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

but the G-Fund is a guaranteed loser to inflation. You might think - and, in a way you will be correct - that you are not losing money in the G-Fund, but 8% or 9% inflation absolutely puts you in the red. If inflation lasts a couple/few years your retirement is in jeopardy.

I don't disagree with this but you also have to factor in past years gains. If you averaged 10% a year over the past 10 years you can handle 3% over the next two. If however you have been languishing in the G fund since 2009 then you are just adding to the misery.

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

I don't disagree with this but you also have to factor in past years gains. If you averaged 10% a year over the past 10 years you can handle 3% over the next two. If however you have been languishing in the G fund since 2009 then you are just adding to the misery.

Truth to that - to some extent. I just checked and the G-Fund is returning 3%. Man, that is nice. So many years at between 0.50% and 1.50%. Yowser.

But, my point is that when inflation is 8% than you are losing 5% in purchasing power. That, however, is SIGNIFICANTLY better than someone who has camped the S-Fund YoY. Their return is -30% YoY factoring in inflation. Yowser, double yowser.

Right now, I think I would prefer the FED to absolutely tank the economy by raising interest rates to 10% or something. Just get done with it.

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

I'm thinking of increasing my contributions by 5% to 20%. That would be 25% of my salary going into C/S/I at 40/30/30.

I can still taste the C-Fund shares I bought for $6.66.

And, yes, I distinctly remember that price.

Too funny, and very yummy.

The mark of the

Beast



I think that one move - that is, increasing my contributions as the market tanked through 2008 - has netted me more yummy retirement money than anything I have ever done. If, more likely when, I do it again I can train my brain to think that those shares are the ones I will keep for the next 30 years. Yummy, very yummy. And, if I can get in with a more aggressive allocation before the early recovery boom I will be a very happy person of pronoun as defined someday in the future.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

I can still taste the C-Fund shares I bought for $6.66.

That must have been a long time ago. I don't even remember it getting that low back in 2008-2009. I do remember it in the mid $7 range.

I was fortunate enough not to be in when all this started. I have moved some in since then when I thought is was going to rebound, about 20%. I left that in, as I don't sell losses. At some point I will deploy more, just not sure I'm there yet. I am going to shift my 20% contributions over to 100% C/S/I for a while, buy it on the way down.

 

[joblin20]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

That must have been a long time ago. I don't even remember it getting that low back in 2008-2009. I do remember it in the mid $7 range.

I was fortunate enough not to be in when all this started. I have moved some in since then when I thought is was going to rebound, about 20%. I left that in, as I don't sell losses. At some point I will deploy more, just not sure I'm there yet. I am going to shift my 20% contributions over to 100% C/S/I for a while, buy it on the way down.

I have been exploring with the indicators on tradingview. On some of the models, it looks awful. Perhaps something bigger than the 2008 drop. Anyway, I paid an annual fee and plugged the indicators in with spx and dwcpf and studied them on a daily and weekly chart. I don't see anything positive on them.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

... plugged the indicators in with spx and dwcpf and studied them on a daily and weekly chart. I don't see anything positive on them.

I'm not the biggest fan of TA, but it's popular here, so here goes. Fibonacci retracements of SPX from March 2020 lows are 3800, 3500, and 3200. 3500 looks very realistic. We also have a minor Bradley turn date tomorrow, May 20, and those are usually pretty exciting trading days.

 

[joblin20]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

Yeah, I was listening to the Kendall report, and that's what he was saying. I stopped trying to predict what the market may do tomorrow. I try to leave emotions out of it and try to listen to the charts. Easier said then done if your dealing with your life savings.

 

[Epic]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

I just checked and the G-Fund is returning 3%......But when inflation is 8% then you are losing 5% in purchasing power.

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

That must have been a long time ago. I don't even remember it getting that low back in 2008-2009. I do remember it in the mid $7 range.

I was fortunate enough not to be in when all this started. I have moved some in since then when I thought is was going to rebound, about 20%. I left that in, as I don't sell losses. At some point I will deploy more, just not sure I'm there yet. I am going to shift my 20% contributions over to 100% C/S/I for a while, buy it on the way down.

It's my story and I'm sticking with it

I just looked, the C-Fund dumped into the $7's - not the $6's. Looking at the S&P500 I see it dumped EOD into the $670's, so I probably saw a $666.xx intraday. I know I saw 'The Mark of the Beast' and I remember commenting on it at work. Since I was largely out of the market it was kinda funny.

Now, far more seriously, since the S&P500 recovered after The 'Mark of the Beast' is it the Beast of the Apocalypse? Expiring minds need to know

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

Plop,

Plop, plop

Plop, plop, plop

Quick, call the doctor. The market may have dysentery.

Then again, early money is dumb money. If we see a few smirks or EoD smiles we may have a reason to rejoice. My guess is "nope".

Personally, if I were a CxO of a major company I would just camp it. Why make a move that can be obliterated by a comment or the stroke of a pen or the actions of a regulator. Why spend billions (ok, maybe mere millions) on something that is both legal and politically good right now that will result in your home getting picketed by a hoard of moonbats - or, worse yet, may become politically bad next week. Welcome to the Banana Republic of 'Merica.

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

Doesn't look like a lot of dip buying out there. Still early and the decline is minimal so far. Smart money is EOD, I just looked at dumb money - so, there is that.

However, if there are minimal institutional, automated, or retail investors buying the dip then the dip shall go on.

I think the folks are deciding that camping is the best use of their assets.


Remember one thing: If you are not losing you are gaining. Zero is your hero.

 

[Epic]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

Remember one thing: If you are not losing you are gaining. Zero is your hero.

You got that right. Best advice ever ! ! !

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

Ugh...

If my two brain cells are still functional and computing, I have lost more (on a percentage basis) YTD this year than I did in 2008.

All this because I wanted to avoid letting politics play a role in my investing. I left about a third the growth on the table during the Obama presidency because I did not believe in his policies. So, I had someone physically restrain me from making bailout IFTs this year. Now, all I have are the bruises to show for it. Yowser. Wiped out last years gains and working on 2020.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

The market has taken away all of 2021 profits and working on 2020. I'm only 6% away from my ending price of 2019. :smashfreakB:

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

The market has taken away all of 2021 profits and working on 2020. I'm only 6% away from my ending price of 2019. :smashfreakB:

And, just to think...

4% is the generally accepted norm for annual distributions from a retirement account. The C-Fund has lost 5+ years of annual retirement distributions.

Joy to the world.

On the good side, there has been a nice bounce this morning with dumb money. If smart money follows for a bit of time we might have seen the end of this fun and games. Not betting on it. FED has to raise rates quickly to pull slush money out of the system. That is recessionary. And, with all the unexpected mullah the gubmint shoved out there it will be worse and take a longer time.

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

A not so nice bounce this morning. More of a spat.
But, this is dumb money hour.....
We shall see...

However, early afternoon doesn't seem very sunny either. Yesterday might have been a dead cat bounce.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

I honestly though we would get 2 days of POP. I guess yesterday was it.

 

[LTJPFED]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

Maybe we get a turn around Thursday afternoon? Maybe put in a huge tail on this day...wishful thinking

 

[Boghie]

Re: This Does NOT feel like a Normal Market

Maybe we get a turn around Thursday afternoon? Maybe put in a huge tail on this day...wishful thinking

Kinda doubt it, but even if the EoD does pop up this is not a market for wishful thinking

The only reason we have dumped so far is Federal policy - and, State policy where appropriate. This is the result of politics. In the end, I don't even know if things will change if the politics change. Once sucker punched we tend to be very careful not to get sucker punched again. As an example, why would people invest in an oil pipeline? We hope investment will happen if the opportunity arises. We need the fuel. But, less than two years ago we elected someone who was yammering about shutting down pipeline construction, reestablishing regulations, and locking up oil company executives. Promises made are promises kept. It is the gift that keeps on giving. We wanted this. We wanted this managed by the executive order of one man. Elections have consequences. Now, if I had the ability to stroke a check with a lot of trailing zeros I would think about this now in 'Merica. If I had $200 bucks to invest in Chevron I don't know if I would.

Any of you want to invest in Keystone Pipeline v2024?

I'm going to nope it.

So, if folks think like me you ain't going to get any more fuel.

GLHF