Boghies Account Talk

[TommyIV]

Adding a little risk to the equation. Being an oldster, and wanting to avoid eating the Bargain Alpo, I am holding a rather sizable amount in the G-Fund. After mathing it out I need to have about 40% of my current holdings in the G-Fund to support me and my trophy wife for seven years. So, if I decide to 'peace out' after a particularly nasty or boring day I can draw from cash holdings for seven years and let the market recover. I am arrogant enough to believe that me 'peacing out' will dump 'Merica into the Greater Depression. If the worse doesn't happen, I can just let that 60% churn and grow while I sleep happily.

Fund Allocation:

• G 40% - I'm now an oldster looking at a choice of gold watches. This is enough 'cash' for 7 years.
• F 0% - This fund of bonds still sucks. It just ain't behaving right. All those low return bonds gotta get washed out before I invest in this.
• C 30% - Overweighting for stability. Still seems to offer significant growth
• S 20% - I think small to medium size business will do well. They will be allowed to innovate
• I 10% - It kinda looks like EuroTrash money is moving to 'Merica, but this should start growing

Metrics (from 'Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation'):

• Expected Return (CAGR/IRR): 7.99%
• Expected Risk: 9.37%
• Meaning that 67% of the time the annual return will fall between -1.38% and +17.36%
• Best Year: +24%
• Worst Year: -20%
• Worst Drawdown: -31%

BTW:
I cannot update the AutoTracker. It keeps telling me my session has expired. I think I am being blocked at work. Ugh.
And, the new forum looks great. Great job

Give me the okay and I'll update your AutoTracker for you!

 

[Boghie]

Adding a little risk to the equation. Being an oldster, and wanting to avoid eating the Bargain Alpo, I am holding a rather sizable amount in the G-Fund. After mathing it out I need to have about 40% of my current holdings in the G-Fund to support me and my trophy wife for seven years. So, if I decide to 'peace out' after a particularly nasty or boring day I can draw from cash holdings for seven years and let the market recover. I am arrogant enough to believe that me 'peacing out' will dump 'Merica into the Greater Depression. If the worse doesn't happen, I can just let that 60% churn and grow while I sleep happily.

Fund Allocation:

• G 40% - I'm now an oldster looking at a choice of gold watches. This is enough 'cash' for 7 years.
• F 0% - This fund of bonds still sucks. It just ain't behaving right. All those low return bonds gotta get washed out before I invest in this.
• C 30% - Overweighting for stability. Still seems to offer significant growth
• S 20% - I think small to medium size business will do well. They will be allowed to innovate
• I 10% - It kinda looks like EuroTrash money is moving to 'Merica, but this should start growing

Metrics (from 'Backtest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation'):

• Expected Return (CAGR/IRR): 7.99%
• Expected Risk: 9.37%
• Meaning that 67% of the time the annual return will fall between -1.38% and +17.36%
• Best Year: +24%
• Worst Year: -20%
• Worst Drawdown: -

Give me the okay and I'll update your AutoTracker for you!

That would be great.

I'll see if I can login tonight, but to be accurate my IFT should be logged in for today. I made the transaction just before the forum entry so it should be good to go for COB.

 

[tsptalk]

I'll see if I can login tonight, but to be accurate my IFT should be logged in for today. I made the transaction just before the forum entry so it should be good to go for COB.

I got your private message earlier and the IFT has been entered for COB today. Good luck!

 

[Boghie]

I still get the 'Session Expired' error when attempting to log into AutoTracker. I will try tonight from home. The following IFT will commit COB tonight...

Anyway, after speaking to my Edelman Financial advisor last night I am making the following IFT:

Fund Allocation and Banal Thoughts

• G 25% - This is more than enough for Bucket I (he understood the concept)
• F 10% - Not an important allocation, but it is used for diversification.
• C 35% - Statists prefer big business so I am bumping this
• S 20% - The Trumpster was great for small to medium business. A bit of alpa
• I 10% - The EuroTrash look worse than we do. Is this a permanent allocation. Yowser

Sciencey Stuff:

• Expected Annual Return: 8.42%
• Expected Risk: 10.22%
• Best Year: 24.98%
• Worst Year: -22.12%
• Biggest Dump: -34.275

 

[tsptalk]

I still get the 'Session Expired' error when attempting to log into AutoTracker. I will try tonight from home. The following IFT will commit COB tonight...

I will enter that in for you, but if I had to guess, you may be using a different pswd in the autotracker as the forum and if your browser is auto-filling the pswd in both, then one will not work.

Send me a direct message if you want me to send you a temp AutoTracker pwswd.

 

[Boghie]

I haven't looked at this chap's other videos, but I think this quick discussion on computing your FERS Pension is worth looking at:

 

[Boghie]

Question:

I am needing a new roof that I haven't budgeted for and skillfully executed some expensive stuff I did budget for. Anyway, if I take a TSP loan out, and amortize it for 5 years, can I pay extra principal on it monthly to get it paid off early?

I could probably pay it off in about a year, but don't want to force a high monthly payment. My plan is to retire at the end of 2026, so I don't want this hanging around very long. If I get DOGE'd I can afford to pay it off with my TSP holdings without seriously damaging my retirement plan, so that is not a problem.

I would put this in the 'TSP Loan' forum, but folks don't seem to peruse it much...

 

[voodoostation]

Question:

I am needing a new roof that I haven't budgeted for and skillfully executed some expensive stuff I did budget for. Anyway, if I take a TSP loan out, and amortize it for 5 years, can I pay extra principal on it monthly to get it paid off early?

I could probably pay it off in about a year, but don't want to force a high monthly payment. My plan is to retire at the end of 2026, so I don't want this hanging around very long. If I get DOGE'd I can afford to pay it off with my TSP holdings without seriously damaging my retirement plan, so that is not a problem.

I would put this in the 'TSP Loan' forum, but folks don't seem to peruse it much...

The way I read the loan agreement, you can pay off earlier than the term limit, but you don't reduce the interest you will pay. Agreed upon loan value will be the same regardless if you pay to term or throw in extra payments.

 

[Boghie]

Nothing tastes quite as good as a nice little dumb money panic.

Sharpening my teeth with a metal file.
Lying in wait in the tall savanna grasses.
A great herd of antelope slowly walking by.
Tasty, quite tasty. Don't let them pass. Get ready!

Will it be today, tomorrow, or Monday. I will be sated...

 

[Boghie]

Fund Allocation, Banal Thoughts to Follow

• G 15% - It isn't earning a bad return. This is 3 years of assets for my blissful retirement
• F 10% - It is making money. I think it will have normal pre-2008 action and returns.
• C 35% - Some of these big boys have been offshoring to save a few pennies, don't know about that now
• S 30% - Hmmm, some of the C's will want of onshore to the S's. Could be where the steak is
• I 10% - The Euros seem to be doing well. Don't know why, but me like

Man, we haven't had a dumb money panic in a while. It feelz good man...

 

[FAAM]

Fund Allocation, Banal Thoughts to Follow

• G 15% - It isn't earning a bad return. This is 3 years of assets for my blissful retirement
• F 10% - It is making money. I think it will have normal pre-2008 action and returns.
• C 35% - Some of these big boys have been offshoring to save a few pennies, don't know about that now
• S 30% - Hmmm, some of the C's will want of onshore to the S's. Could be where the steak is
• I 10% - The Euros seem to be doing well. Don't know why, but me like

Man, we haven't had a dumb money panic in a while. It feelz good man...

THX for posting-sharing, & forgive if mine a dumb-?. In your prior post today, did you mean you are investing (outside of TSP) in antelope (or maybe that whole sector of hoofed-herbavors?)... or (maybe and/or) is the above TSP allocation one you just IFT'd into today (& if so, was that the result of your tooth filing)?
... I have some cash (in TSP and outside brokerage-acct)... waiting for "blood in the streets" - thinking maybe too early yet for that (maybe DCA into some good positions/equities?) but then I'm not sure of choice equities/ETFs to go for.

Good luck & wear a good chef's apron.

 

[Boghie]

@FAAM,

Those references to a hunting lion are kinda an OG (Old Guard) reference to a great chap (Burrocrat) who data-mined us Forum Oldsters around here. He grabbed something like 20 of us, gave us nicknames based on our trading style and put us on his 'Ark'. Then he watched us, our comments, and our IFTs and provided entertaining and enlightening commentary. Heck, he had better reasons for some of my IFTs than I did .

Anyway, I was the Lion. I slumbered restfully in the tall savanna grass. Chillaxing with the pride. Enjoying the comforts of the lionesses.
Till I got hungry and pounced into action. Lips smacking, bones cracking. Eating till fully sated. Yum.

Back then I was young, fast, and had a big appetite. Now, I am old and slow. We shall see how this move works out. Not every move is a winner, but this seems locked on.

Regretfully, Burrocrat passed - and passed rather young from what I understand. I loved his commentary. He seemed to be a great guy.

Happy Hunting.

 

[FAAM]

@FAAM,
Those references to a hunting lion are kinda an OG (Old Guard) reference to a great chap (Burrocrat) who data-mined us Forum Oldsters around here. He grabbed something like 20 of us, gave us nicknames based on our trading style and put us on his 'Ark'. Then he watched us, our comments, and our IFTs and provided entertaining and enlightening commentary. Heck, he had better reasons for some of my IFTs than I did .

Anyway, I was the Lion. I slumbered restfully in the tall savanna grass. Chillaxing with the pride. Enjoying the comforts of the lionesses.
Till I got hungry and pounced into action. Lips smacking, bones cracking. Eating till fully sated. Yum.

Back then I was young, fast, and had a big appetite. Now, I am old and slow. We shall see how this move works out. Not every move is a winner, but this seems locked on.

Regretfully, Burrocrat passed - and passed rather young from what I understand. I loved his commentary. He seemed to be a great guy.

Thx for explaining. You've been a member of this site about a year longer than I have, though I didn't comment much if at all for years but I recall regularly reading ole-Burrocrat's comments (RIP) too... always did wonder about his "Ark". As ya might guess from my logo here, I'm a predator cat too... a "WSU-Cougar" type & me likes the meats too.
.... Best wishes to you.

 

[Boghie]

We have a 'Tragic Bronson Alert', a 'Tragic Bronson Alert'...

I probably should have waited till there were positive signs. In the end, it won't really matter, but for smack reasons it would have been better to make the IFT trade into a higher 'S Fund' allocation today or Monday. You never really know.

 

[Boghie]

Regretfully, I have/should keep that 25% in G/F. I'm no longer a young pup and must keep some assets safe for retirement.

However, if this was 5 years ago I'd be ALL-IN. That is rare for me. For my entire time here on the Ark known as TSPTalk I have oscillated between one of three allocations - all of which have some safe assets. I also have a Lilly Pad allocation and a Stronk Like Bull allocation. Those are the exceptions, and by memory the only times I have used them for extensive time periods were:

Obvious market bottoms with a bull move
and, obvious frothy markets with a lot of bear action

So, early/mid 2009 was a bull so big it knocked me over. Late 2004 was sweet as well.
And, late 2000, early 2003, and late 2007 had too many bears roaming about.

I wish I didn't get caught out by 2022. I was way to sciency - but, in the end that lousy return just got washed away.

This tariff stuff is overblown. Way overblown.

 

[Boghie]

If my Old-And-Slow brain is working, as of COB the following corrections have been made off the 52-Week Highs:

Fund Name	Correction
C-Fund	-17.5%
S-Fund	-25%
I-Fund	-11.7%

They were already down from their recents, but this little spat dropped them down a bit more.

That 25% in G/F looks so tempting, but it is off the table.