Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

I'm thinking of demonstrating my confidence by reducing my C & S holdings.
Likewise, my pleasure in holding G while the Treasury borrows from it will also be evident.
Although it seems odd, the best place to show my confidence in our leadership might be the F Fund.

 

[rangerray]

Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

I am really, really regretting my letting my guard down yesterday. What a lousy open today. If we ever needed dip buyers, today's the day. If it doesn't look up by the cutoff, I'm probably joining you in the good ol' G Fund.

 

[felixthecat]

Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

I am really, really regretting my letting my guard down yesterday. What a lousy open today. If we ever needed dip buyers, today's the day. If it doesn't look up by the cutoff, I'm probably joining you in the good ol' G Fund.

I have the G fund nice and warm for you to drop in. :smile: The most likely outcome is mom and pop get hurt here as the smart buyers leave the table. I see the S fund is almost down 4 percent from its highs...but the C fund...well...pie in the sky and no room for error. With the political instability fallout from Afghanistan...the inflationary numbers...and the underlying weakness in the market that has been masked as of late (S fund)...we may not seen the worse yet. I'm tempted to wade in on the S but it could drop another 200 points on a very ugly day...I would think by then we would have a decent buy in price there. C fund would follow of course if that happens. so a relief rally might be possible then. :suspicious:

 

[Boghie]

Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

I am really, really regretting my letting my guard down yesterday. What a lousy open today. If we ever needed dip buyers, today's the day. If it doesn't look up by the cutoff, I'm probably joining you in the good ol' G Fund.

Not the 'G Fund' my friend, not the 'G Fund'.

• G: 15%
• F: 50%
• C: 16%
• S: 12%
• I: 7%

CAGR: 7.46%
Risk: 5.86%
Best Year: 20.63%
Worst Year: -9.66
Max Drawdown: -17.10

I am inspired and feel a type of confidence in the direction of both the market and Federal finances I have not felt recently. President Biden's speech inspired this move. Party like it's 2007

NOTE: I don't think that the 'F Fund' holds much in the way of Federal Treasuries and Bonds. The 'G Fund' is being borrowed against because going $3+ Trillion in debt is good to go. I am confident that the Feds will pay me my 1.5% in interest. I do believe that bonds (F) is/was in a slow correction, but a dump of 3% - 5% in F which has little dependence on my confidence in our Federal Executive leadership and our Congressional Budget/Allocation leadership seems worth!!!

 

[Boghie]

Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

Not the 'G Fund' my friend, not the 'G Fund'.

• G: 15%
• F: 50%
• C: 16%
• S: 12%
• I: 7%

CAGR: 7.46%
Risk: 5.86%
Best Year: 20.63%
Worst Year: -9.66
Max Drawdown: -17.10

I am inspired and feel a type of confidence in the direction of both the market and Federal finances I have not felt recently. President Biden's speech inspired this move. Party like it's 2007

NOTE: I don't think that the 'F Fund' holds much in the way of Federal Treasuries and Bonds. The 'G Fund' is being borrowed against because going $3+ Trillion in debt is good to go. I am confident that the Feds will pay me my 1.5% in interest. I do believe that bonds (F) is/was in a slow correction, but a dump of 3% - 5% in F which has little dependence on my confidence in our Federal Executive leadership and our Congressional Budget/Allocation leadership seems worth!!!

Boy, was I wrong about the 'F Fund'. I absolutely knew there were significant Federal Debt instruments in it - but when I last looked at it I didn't see any. I don't know what I was looking at. I allowed myself to convince myself - what a dummy. Ugh, there is a ton of Federal debt in it. I guess we cannot hide from the full trust and faith of the gubmint. C/S/I are the only faithless:laugh: funds, and C/S are overvalued with I moribund for years.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

There are two ways to win in TSP:

1. To be invested in a Bull Market
2. and, to not be invested in a Bear Market

Option (1) is by far the most lucrative and certain. If you think about it there are thousands of smart, hard working folks (and, some are both) running listed companies in the Developed World. Almost all of them want their companies to succeed - even excluding the desire to make their shareholders happy. Even more importantly - in some ways - their are literally billions of folks who provide the day to day labor and knowhow that want to succeed - and, for them to succeed requires their employer to succeed. Now, I know there are outliers but in the norm the above comment is accurate. To demonstrate that accuracy just note that equities grow about 10% per year and profits grow similarly.

Option (2) is necessary when something interferes with the execution of Option (1) or when the proxy to our economies (equities) gets out of whack with those economies. When the issue is some temporary interference that one can look past than it is best just to ride it out. You want to be in on the snap-back. A nasty example of that is the COVID issues. When the issue is a bubble in equities where equities have advanced beyond the actual economy than it is best to get out when the froth is somewhat obvious and time your way back in. You don't have to be perfect, just decent. A nasty example of that is the 2008 mess.

The question we must look at now is are we stuck in Option (2) and, if so, can we count on a short correction or are we in for a long cycle failure?

 

[Boghie]

Re: Super Duper Conservative Allocation

Folks, your charts are going to be crap...
DO NOT count on technicals in a time like this...

Hunker down.
Just my
0.02

 

[Boghie]

Beatin' the Street

I ain't going to beat the traders, but...

I wonder how many barrels of oil I can store in my backyard? That would be both an investment and an inflation hedge!!!

:laugh:

 

[Boghie]

Re: Beatin' the Street

I noticed something weird when doing some research for some threads...

It appears that the fund prices for 2003/01/01 are normalized at around $10. I think they are normalized at a $10 G-Fund. That is weird. I don't have data before 2003 - even if I want to go through the bother of grabbing it from the surviving disk of the Great Computer Crash of 2019. I mean, what are the odds of every fund camping a few cents off of the $10 mark and the G-Fund sitting at precisely $10.

I would prefer real numbers. Maybe those were real. Weird.

 

[evilanne]

Re: Beatin' the Street

They didn't have share prices before 6/1/2003, I just know that they closed everything at the end of May and changed over to shares. I am not sure if they had S & I funds prior to that time or if that was when those funds were added. All shares were set at $10

 

[PessOptimist]

FYI-fund start dates
G-4/1/87
F-1/29/88
C-1/29/88
S-5/1/2001
I-5/1/2001
L-8/1/2005 and various dates as year funds were created

$10 was just a number they picked.

PO

 

[Boghie]

Time In the Market

 

[Boghie]

Re: Time In the Market

The best market timer vs those who spend time in the market:

I'm not a buy and holder. I will flex my assets around. Has it helped. Maybe. But, camping in cash for long(ish) lengths of time hinder your time in the market - which is no bueno...

 

[Boghie]

Re: Time In the Market

Congressional deadlock is great, they feed me chocolate cake!!! :

Politicians discussing a tax 'reform' that increases investment taxes is not a good time to be invested:

• G: 5% << Give the Treasury a little less to 'borrow' from
• F: 40% << Not buying any with contributions, but holding too much here and will move later this month
• C: 25% << S&P500 has been sideways through the summer, overweighting
• S: 15% << Has been going up. Why?
• I: 15% << Has been sideways for quite some time. US market will likely churn as we over-regulate
  
• Expected Annual Return: Probably in the 8.33% range
• Expected Risk: Probably in the 8.59% range

The summer doldrums are in the past. This is normally a nice time to invest. Migrating from a conservative to a moderate allocation for my age/circumstances.

Please politicians, don't 'give' me any freebies!!! Just relax in your easy chairs.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Time In the Market

So, the S Fund (the US Equity 'Completion' Fund' is now flat YoY.
The EuroTrash/Japan fund (I Fund) is flat since March
The F Fund (AGG) is in correction...

The only savior is the S&P 500 C Fund. It has had a nice run YoY, but why...

This does not look good. How 'un'-good is it. Only time will tell. You really want the S-Fund to lead the way and it ain't doing that.

I wouldn't be 'all-in' because if the S&P 500 turns over everything (excepting maybe bonds) will turn over with it. I wouldn't be 'all-out' because it appears the politicians cannot really muck with the tax system right now. They can, and are, mucking with the regulatory system and that can damage things, but that is what we asked for. Personally, I left money on the table during the terms of President Obama because I let politics get in the way of my financial brain. Had I not, I would be commenting as a recently retired coupon clipper in his Winnebago. Maybe. Still kinda young for that lifestyle and I didn't really like the motorhome thing as a kid.

So, a middling allocation that buffers my losses and lets me make a bit if we restart the good times. Let the market decide and don't take a 10%+ loss. I will go further into safety if I hit a -7% from my personal high...

 

[Boghie]

Re: Time In the Market

This thang looks like it is turning over...

The problem for investors is that bond funds also look rather crappy. Inflation is VERY bad for bond holders. Our 'F Fund' has corrected 5.5% over the past year. Normally that would mean that it would be a nice safe haven. But, look at the activity volume - if I am reading the chart correctly. Yowser. With inflation looming bonds may not be the fallback for market timers. Bond FUNDS are worse than holding bonds in this environment because they are actively priced to market - and, there is internal buying and selling at all times.

Cash (G) might be the only place to be.

As RangerRay stated, I am not at my pain point so I will hold my allocation. I will probably eat 5% - 7% in this allocation before I make a move. You have to give the market some wiggle room or you will always be out when the market turns hot. This is especially true when you are dealing with a 2 IFT limit. If I do move to safety I will dramatically over-allocate to the G Fund. Don't like it, but...

 

[Boghie]

Is it Headin' South

It is never a good thing when the 'G Fund' is in the Top 10 of the AutoTracker :ban:

It is early yet, but this trend ain't your friend.


Right now I'm Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

 

[dannyboy]

This thang looks like it is turning over...

The problem for investors is that bond funds also look rather crappy. Inflation is VERY bad for bond holders. Our 'F Fund' has corrected 5.5% over the past year. Normally that would mean that it would be a nice safe haven. But, look at the activity volume - if I am reading the chart correctly. Yowser. With inflation looming bonds may not be the fallback for market timers. Bond FUNDS are worse than holding bonds in this environment because they are actively priced to market - and, there is internal buying and selling at all times.

Cash (G) might be the only place to be.

As RangerRay stated, I am not at my pain point so I will hold my allocation. I will probably eat 5% - 7% in this allocation before I make a move. You have to give the market some wiggle room or you will always be out when the market turns hot. This is especially true when you are dealing with a 2 IFT limit. If I do move to safety I will dramatically over-allocate to the G Fund. Don't like it, but...

ZZZ
Everyone today is looking up at the G Including me. I feel like this is due to the borrowing to keep the US thriving during COVID-19? Tougher times may be coming?

 

[Boghie]

Feels Like a Southernly Storm

Congressional deadlock is great, they feed me chocolate cake. But, I am starting to feel like yakking politicians really don't matter. Stagflation is not good:

• G: 25% << Hold money here and wait for a growth period
• F: 30% << Normally a holding tank for an equity investor, but with inflation this thing is a turd
• C: 25% << The S&P 500 will trail the Small Caps in a downturn market. It has been a good place to be.
• S: 10% << Now it is going down. Not a good place to be. This will lead in a downturn market
• I: 10% << Lackluster. The politicians have been rolling in the slime here for generations. Unless you like 5 year plans this ain't the place to be.
  
• Expected Annual Return: 7.73%
• Expected Risk: 6.96%
• Best Year: 21.12%
• Worst Year: -13.80%
• Biggest Dump: -22.89%

I like that there have been few if any Congressionally approved tax code and regulation changes. However, the Executive can start executing with Executing Orders or whatever they are called. That will be a mess. With the Santa 'rally' largely behind us I don't want to be in the crosshairs of yelling incompetence.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Feels Like a Southernly Storm

Thought you'd have more in G than F based on your previous comments about F fund. I always maintain a partial allocation to G, nothing wrong with that.