Birchtree's Account Talk

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That's OK bulls. For, it is Friday, and the sun will come up the next trading day (Monday).

Dow 36,000 anyone?
 
Birchtree said:
John Markman says; "This is the most morose bull market in history. S&P could hit 3000 by 2020. Bull market far from over." I'll settle on S&P at 1700 by year end.

http://theguruinvestor.com
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The other phrase in the story is that "He thinks the S&P 500 could reach 3,000 by the end of this decade, but adds that it won’t be a smooth ride — there are enough economic troubles that the index could fall to 800 or so before turning upward. " But apparently he won't identify the time for that buying opportunity. :D
 
I 'call' this one. 3000 by 2020- Does anybody seriously care about this vision?

2020? Logarithmic traders can't think past .002 seconds and TSP traders can't think past the noon deadline.

10 years ago, a guy actually made a lot of money publishing a book called Dow 36,000. I didn't buy the book.
 
Bullitt said:
I 'call' this one. 3000 by 2020- Does anybody seriously care about this vision?

2020? Logarithmic traders can't think past .002 seconds and TSP traders can't think past the noon deadline.

10 years ago, a guy actually made a lot of money publishing a book called Dow 36,000. I didn't buy the book.
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DITTO I don't think of 2020 at this point! :) Anyway, 2012 will the the end of us all anyway!! :) :)

Lobo :)
 
Bullitt said:
I 'call' this one. 3000 by 2020- Does anybody seriously care about this vision?

2020? Logarithmic traders can't think past .002 seconds and TSP traders can't think past the noon deadline.

10 years ago, a guy actually made a lot of money publishing a book called Dow 36,000. I didn't buy the book.
Click to expand...

Ouch, Bullitt. I think I got that book from the library back then. I went whole hog into C about that time and basically didn't look at the market for the next 3 years-I didn't know nothin about charts, and nothing about market behavior back then, barely knew anything about life cycle allocation even. Man, if it hadn't been for this site and KDs starting about 3 years ago, I'd never have hung onto what I recouped from the last crash (the recoup was entirely by negligence and inattention between 2002 and 07-faith in 36,000 or some dang thing along the way).

Fortunately for me, I also read a book somewhere along the way about boomer retirement=home downsizing to more manageable sized homes or to pay for retirement homes. And market decline while boomers sell stocks to fund retirement -so I was a little bit sceptical about market going up forever.

(boomers sell everything at retirement-all except Birch of course-he'll live off the dividends and upsize while he's at it). ;) Who knew the home sales and lifecycle downsizing would be early-so people could continue eating while trying to make it to retirement. :rolleyes:
 
Silly me. My ten year mega trend secular bull market top is Dow 39,000. And if I get there I will be a new money rich guy. I'll be dollar cost averaging into my MEE position as it gets crushed with charges - I can wait the bad news out and take opportunity of weakness. Now I've been around here long enough to know who you perma-bears are and I'm watching for those towels.

"If anything we continue to observe perma bears holding on. Perhaps not until the perma-bears finally throw in the towel will we begin to get a little concerned about the rally in equities." So perma-bears don't be in a hurry to make any changes.

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4076667
 
Oh Mandy - that S fund is really going to hurt especially if it tanks again next week. I need one nice clip off the I fund Monday for me to shift into lower prices. Last week was a gain of $126K and this week was a give back of $114K - about even I'd say. Take the S fund down to $18.09 and I'll shift some to it for a short stop. The return of volatility is making life very interesting.
 
After today's trading hours, the I fund went from -1.25 to -.40 and that tells me that the I fund is getting more buyer friendly. It has shown those, I guess one would call them, positive 'fair value' moves, off and on for the past week.

Looks like most of us has had about 2%+gains for the month (barnpilot had 4%, slippery dog). Pretty good generally, but I think we'll make up ground next month providing we move a little from the S fund.;)
 
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Steadygain said:
Birch,

I'm really scared about things right now ~ mainly because of the Gulf getting destroyed. I think the 42,000 Gallons spilling out (per day) is a media 'cover up' to down play what's really going on.

I do know that the Deep Ocean ~ the Gulf itself is getting destroyed with all the Oil getting out. From there it hits the shallow water and destroys all that and then the Gulf Coast with 3 States largely getting destoryed.

Man it's crazy Birch because first the Oil is majorly 'Toxic' and then it gets the ugly 'sticky' that ruins everything.

Anyway -- I'm seriously thinking of going to G Fund before it hits the Gulf Coast and things get really bad.
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Tsunami said:
Steady,

At 42,000 gallons per day it would take about 260 days to equal the 11 million gallon spill from the Exxon Valdez in 1989. It's also a "sweeter" crude that I believe is a little less toxic and easier to clean up than the Alaskan spill. They're working hard to vacuum it up while repairs are being made to stop the leak, so it will never reach the proportions of the Exxon Valdez spill. Don't get me wrong, it's a disaster for the marine life in that area and for wildlife wherever it hits the shore, but if you check a chart of the stock market in 1989 (it started on March 24, 1989) I doubt there was even a noticeable blip of an affect on the stock market from the Exxon Valdez, nor will there be from this in my opinion.
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Well our comments since 4/27 have more than proven my initial fears. NOW the GULF is officially RESTRICTED -- The entire Fishing Industry is ruined.

Coast is next -- Home values will sink to nothing. All areas along the coast will be in an uproar. Tensions will flare and all we can do is sit back and watch it happen.

To me ~~ this is way worse than the twin tower buildings. :mad::mad:

If you can ignore all these things -- and simply look at the Markets then life will be easier to handle.
 
Steadygain said:
Well our comments since 4/27 have more than proven my initial fears. NOW the GULF is officially RESTRICTED -- The entire Fishing Industry is ruined.

Coast is next -- Home values will sink to nothing. All areas along the coast will be in an uproar. Tensions will flare and all we can do is sit back and watch it happen.

To me ~~ this is way worse than the twin tower buildings. :mad::mad:

If you can ignore all these things -- and simply look at the Markets then life will be easier to handle.
Click to expand...
I feel that if they can stop the leak within a week and the winds change direction, like they are now it won't be as bad as everyone thinks. STOP THE SPILL!!!:nuts:
 
"Today the SPX tested its 50 day MA, and the Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen."

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16655/a-fun-day-in-the-market

There are many who are already declaring the bull market off the March lows dead. My friends, it is normal and expected for the markets to test down to those 50 day exponential moving averages from time to time. That allows for the oscillators to unwind and for any negative divergencies that formed to be wiped out. Keep in mind that the role of a bull market is to keep you out all the way up until the top. During a secular bull market, the cyclical, or shorter, bull markets within them gained 110% on average and lasted at least three years and longer. The economy is healthier than widely believed and exports will provide a bigger boost than in the past. If the market is poised for a multiyear run, investors should be more aggressive by holding their positions. Even the beat up consumer seems to be back spending. Hold long and strong.
 
Just think how quick the ride can be on the upside - most lily padders will miss some potential gains by following the market rather than running in front of the train. The S funders came down really hard today and that also was expected - will the S fund regain its momentum is questionable from my perspective. I'm migrating to the large caps both in the C fund and the I fund. I was one day early on my shift to the I fund but I had previously bought another position at $17.61 on 2/16 so I'm kosher. I simply can't imagine chasing the S fund though I'm hedged with a 15% position. I'm also more concerned with the 4-year cycle that nests later this fall - that baby could create some serious damage. We must remember that the higher we go the more scary and hard down these consolidations tend to get - they are designed to keep most investors on the sidelines.
 
I've decided to move out of the S fund entirely before it clips $18.18 and am now resting at 60 C fund and 40 I fund close of business 5/5. I took a gain off the I fund at $18.69 and some off the S fund at $19.48. So I'm going strictly large cap until the 4-year cycle nesting in the fall. Buy during a panic, don't sell if possible. I'll make up any devaluation in the S fund if it drops tomorrow by shifting to the I fund - and I don't care if the I fund drops again or not.
 
Too many speckly black swanny things flying around for me to rest in the I Fund.

The EuroTrash Zone is even more broke than we are.

EuroPensioners are in trouble.
 
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