Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Well Birch - I just changed the 'Contributions' to match 'Investments'


The TSPgov site reflects I 'lost' MEGA thousands :worried: Then I realized 'Hey man don't sweat it! You ain't lost a thing'.

So I bought a ton of shares -- and now will continue buying more and more and allowing these to build up.


In the long run Birch you have 'winners' and 'losers' -- it was a long lesson ... but I'm not selling at a loss.

Well time for lunch.

 

[Tsunami]

Break it on down for us dummies

I replied earlier but the message board froze up on me...basically when that FAGIX to VUSTX ratio chart shows lower highs (while stocks are simultaneously making higher highs), it means people are shifting to buying "safer" government bonds, and that change in trend historically has happened before major stock market tops. So keeping an eye on a chart of FAGIX:VUSTX will give a good warning of an approaching top, and vice versa for bottoms. I think we'll see that divergence developing over the summer before the stuff really hits the fan and spreads to the UK and US after Labor Day. This current drop is just an initial warning shot and should turn around soon, I hope. Looks like the low 1100's are coming soon though.

 

[XL-entLady]

...basically when that FAGIX to VUSTX ratio chart shows lower highs (while stocks are simultaneously making higher highs), it means people are shifting to buying "safer" government bonds, and that change in trend historically has happened before major stock market tops. .

Excellent information. Thanks!

 

[JTH]

Birchtree, I could use a pep talk right about now...

View attachment 9312

 

[Birchtree]

This market can take the hammer a lot more before I contemplate a cut and run. Again this is an emotional overreaction to some risk - but I'm holding tight. I've been through much worse in the past and the future is still bright going forward. No pain no gain.

 

[JamesE]

Birch, I just soiled my sticky pants....down 700 points?????? Can I get some fresh ones?

 

[Birchtree]

You mean it was down close to 1,000. Pure panic from the traders - but tomorrow will be a different story. Just hold tight. No fear here.

 

[JamesE]

Copy that. At least we bought shares this week I guess.

 

[fedgolfer]

You mean it was down close to 1,000. Pure panic from the traders - but tomorrow will be a different story. Just hold tight. No fear here.

I entered 5 silly bids, only 2 have gone through... the big boys aren't letting the little folks buy in so easily. I sold some FAZ for a huge gain... trying to buy TNA but it hasn't filled for over 10 minutes!!!!!

 

[coolhand]

I entered 5 silly bids, only 2 have gone through... the big boys aren't letting the little folks buy in so easily. I sold some FAZ for a huge gain... trying to buy TNA but it hasn't filled for over 10 minutes!!!!!

I can't even get into my scottrade account.

 

[fedgolfer]

I can't even get into my scottrade account.

been trying to buy tna since $48... on the bright side... i'll get my kanga tail today for my TSP buy.

 

[turbo23dog]

Just stopping by for a snort of birch juice. Need a nice uplift to get through the rest of today's roller coaster ride.

 

[Birchtree]

Just think if mom and pop had been loaded up what would have happened today - we'd been down another 500 points to 1500 negative on the Dow. My asset base remains intact and I'm several hundred thousand $ away from any calls - so I can actually handle a few more days of pain. My tugboat is getting a beating but it will survive - it's actually in a good position to move forward rapidly.

 

[sugarandspice]

I'm sure this kind of market shenanigans will build even more confidence by mom and pop in the financial world. We all know this kind of thing happens all the time but usually on a smaller scale.

 

[Bullitt]

So, how many margin calls did you have to fend off today? Or, perhaps the broker was too tied up to agitate you this afternoon?

 

[Birchtree]

Luckily no margin calls yet - but if we had remained -999.50 on the Dow I would have come close. I've got my prebuilt lamb chop portfolio ready to go if the calls start rolling in - but they are a ways off yet. I still have several hundred thousand dollars I can kiss off before I have to stretch. But I'm sure many investors got caught in this morass of silliness today. I think we have seen our bottom of this healthy consolidation. Let'em sell and get it out of their system - then we rebound to SPX 1300.

 

[FAB1]

Well I sure hope for everyone, that the market starts to recover tomorrow. However, I am standing a good distance off at least for a little while.

Hey Tom! is this low enough yet for you to jump in??

 

[meltorment]

Looking out to June for the VIX, it looks like options are pricing in a move to about 21.

okay, so now the VIX is at 32.

 

[Birchtree]

You may be surprised how fast emotion can change and with even more liquidity now available I'm looking for a marvelous spike to the upside that will cause even more panic in the markets.

 

[kar_crazy]

i hope i can guess when to jump back on aboard dont want to miss the ride up, i dont that track doun takes me too long to find my way back