Birchtree's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
Just think how quick the ride can be on the upside - most lily padders will miss some potential gains by following the market rather than running in front of the train. The S funders came down really hard today and that also was expected - will the S fund regain its momentum is questionable from my perspective. I'm migrating to the large caps both in the C fund and the I fund. I was one day early on my shift to the I fund but I had previously bought another position at $17.61 on 2/16 so I'm kosher. I simply can't imagine chasing the S fund though I'm hedged with a 15% position. I'm also more concerned with the 4-year cycle that nests later this fall - that baby could create some serious damage. We must remember that the higher we go the more scary and hard down these consolidations tend to get - they are designed to keep most investors on the sidelines.
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Evenin', buddy. You made some excellent points in that post, especially about the shift to large caps. I thought hard about putting some $ into C and I Funds. But cheap share price now doesn't mean that it can't get cheaper. So since I got lots of little white pills to pay for I'm holding off for a bit.

Whether it's gum or baby poultry, you can call me a chicklet!
 
Birchtree said:
I've decided to move out of the S fund entirely before it clips $18.18 and am now resting at 60 C fund and 40 I fund close of business 5/5. I took a gain off the I fund at $18.69 and some off the S fund at $19.48. So I'm going strictly large cap until the 4-year cycle nesting in the fall. Buy during a panic, don't sell if possible. I'll make up any devaluation in the S fund if it drops tomorrow by shifting to the I fund - and I don't care if the I fund drops again or not.
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Seems like a change in strategy? You are not building a G percent for that fall occurence?
 
Birchtree said:
I've decided to move out of the S fund entirely before it clips $18.18 and am now resting at 60 C fund and 40 I fund close of business 5/5. I took a gain off the I fund at $18.69 and some off the S fund at $19.48. So I'm going strictly large cap until the 4-year cycle nesting in the fall. Buy during a panic, don't sell if possible. I'll make up any devaluation in the S fund if it drops tomorrow by shifting to the I fund - and I don't care if the I fund drops again or not.
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With the abismal I fund returns this year and the euro disaster, how could you dismiss the S so early? I am gonna ride my winnings a little farther and see before I lighten this position. I just don't see the I doing anything significant before its time to reallocate later this summer.
 
congrats birch you managed to get 40% in the Ifund to lose about 3.5% of it. all of us in stocks got pinched thouggh. sorry couldnt help the rib, guy.
 
When you deal with other investor's emotions you have to be flexible. Today could easily end up a kangaroo tail type of day. Bring that I fund down to its lows of $17.19 cause I'm so ready.
 
More power to the Roo, BT. Hope he has a Loooong @ss tail. heh. as long as market focuses on that bs in Greece were gonna dive. write socailost fools a darwin award wave hem goodbye I will never vacation there. bah.
 
Birchtree said:
When you deal with other investor's emotions you have to be flexible. Today could easily end up a kangaroo tail type of day. Bring that I fund down to its lows of $17.19 cause I'm so ready.
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Wise words, but I need green to jump!:blink:
 
by George what you said bloke Im seeing on the ruddy charts. A roo tail is forming lets hope it keeps up.
 
My daughter is currently being prepped to manage a project for BP in Houston at their refinery. They bought the refinery from Amaco and then had a damaging fire. She'll be working on safety and risk management subjects. I wouldn't be surprised if she eventually goes to the gulf to help there.
 
did u know BP donate big buks to obambi an the dimparty? Will try to post links later.
 
Birchtree said:
My daughter is currently being prepped to manage a project for BP in Houston at their refinery. They bought the refinery from Amaco and then had a damaging fire. She'll be working on safety and risk management subjects. I wouldn't be surprised if she eventually goes to the gulf to help there.
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Wow what perfect timing !!

Seriously - thought about her this morning and was going to ask. Now let's go over this real slow .....

'prepped to manage' -- means they recognize she's got what they need. She is smart and loaded with talent Birch. Also very good at making decisions and working with others.
(reminds me of Lady -- working at her best)

working for BP -- very BIG name Birch -- ;)

at their refinery -- which is most certainly 'The Bottom Line'

'Safety and Risk Management' is very huge and everybit as important as the 'production itself'.


Please let her know that her favorite uncle and the 'no contest' coolest relative she'll ever have -- is VERY PROUD of her.

Also might remind her if what's his face ever gives her any problems I'll kick his .......


Thanks for the updates --- much appreciated.
 
Thanks for the kind words Steady. The last time I asked Buzz about her new 401K plan she politely told me to get off her butt. So I'll wait another two weeks for the information.

"Money and credit are the main drivers of bull and bear markets. This tsunami of money is what is fueling today's rise in asset prices. Jeremy Grantham discusses the possibility that the S&P 500 could advance or exceed its former high in the 1500 to 1600 range during the next 18 months. Grantham believes that if we experience a weak economic recovery - a high probability in my opinion - we could face a very real danger of a third stock market bubble. The next catalyst for the market could be an improvement in the unemployment rate and net positive job creations. This event, along with positive earnings and economic growth, could take markets much higher than most investors and lamenting bears are thinking. If there is one lesson that can be learned from the last decade it is that when liquidity expands, all asset classes rise some more than others." Color me bullish.

http://financialsense.com/stormwatch/2010/0503.html
 
Hey birch:

Good to see you in my neighborhood (you fell to #118; I rose to #132).......aaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh. The bet on I-fund might work.......then again, it might not......I don't see any positive movement unless, and until, Germany agrees on the bailout package......word is that won't occur until friday at the earliest (if at all), which is after the jobs report.

The I-fund has reached very sharp bottoms......and recently has been a hard pick.
 
amoeba,

Watch for the skid marks tomorrow. What I find most embarrassing is that sugarandspice is putting me to shame. But everyone deserves to be a winner - I'll be back to a 10% gain soon enough.
 
Birchtree said:
....Jeremy Grantham discusses the possibility that the S&P 500 could advance or exceed its former high in the 1500 to 1600 range during the next 18 months. Grantham believes that....we could face a very real danger of a third stock market bubble.
Click to expand...

Around six months ago in one of his Sunday updates (http://www.ttheory.com/), Terry Laundry talked about how in the late 70's/early 80's he was good buddies with Peter Eliades (and still is) and Jeremy Grantham (no longer is), and that in 1982 Eliades and Laundry figured out that the market was at the end of the long bear market and was about to begin a major bull run for years. Laundry new this based on his T Theory which he developed in the 70's. Meanwhile Grantham stayed bearish for years as the markets took off. Now old Grantham thinks the markets are going to just keep going and going to new highs despite the overwhelming debt and other issues. He'll be wrong again and Laundry is right that he shouldn't be listened to. Just my opinion, and I just had my eyes dilated a couple hours ago for my annual eye exam so have no idea what I'm typing.... :cool:

P.S. - Laundry's 5/2/10 comments/charts about his own "T Theory Confidence Indicator", a ratio of a higher risk Fidelity bond fund (FAGIX) to a low risk Vanguard bond fund (VUSTX), is very interesting and worth checking out. We're starting to see a divergence now between stocks (higher peaks) and the FAGIX/VUSTX ratio (starting to develop lower peaks), and I bet that the S&P hits another high just above 1220 in the next couple weeks and meanwhile that bond ratio doesn't. That will be a warning that his predicted August major peak is going to happen (and an even greater divergence should be seen then). I've been following him long enough that I'll be heeding that warning.
 
Tsunami said:
Around six months ago in one of his Sunday updates (http://www.ttheory.com/), Terry Laundry talked about how in the late 70's/early 80's he was good buddies with Peter Eliades (and still is) and Jeremy Grantham (no longer is), and that in 1982 Eliades and Laundry figured out that the market was at the end of the long bear market and was about to begin a major bull run for years. Laundry new this based on his T Theory which he developed in the 70's. Meanwhile Grantham stayed bearish for years as the markets took off. Now old Grantham thinks the markets are going to just keep going and going to new highs despite the overwhelming debt and other issues. He'll be wrong again and Laundry is right that he shouldn't be listened to. Just my opinion, and I just had my eyes dilated a couple hours ago for my annual eye exam so have no idea what I'm typing.... :cool:

P.S. - Laundry's 5/2/10 comments/charts about his own "T Theory Confidence Indicator", a ratio of a higher risk Fidelity bond fund (FAGIX) to a low risk Vanguard bond fund (VUSTX), is very interesting and worth checking out. We're starting to see a divergence now between stocks (higher peaks) and the FAGIX/VUSTX ratio (starting to develop lower peaks), and I bet that the S&P hits another high just above 1220 in the next couple weeks and meanwhile that bond ratio doesn't. That will be a warning that his predicted August major peak is going to happen (and an even greater divergence should be seen then). I've been following him long enough that I'll be heeding that warning.
Click to expand...

Break it on down for us dummies
 
Here's what I think will happen. They drop the box on the oil crack, today, and everyone yells "hooray" and then the stocks go up. I think that oil leak was a real problem and they fixed it before it became too much of a nightmare. I say fixed because the BP boys will fix it, no doubt, or there will be real problems. You just can't politic a big brown crappy spot measuring 100 x 100 mi. The peoples will say something bout it and that would be bad. "That's all I got to say about that." signed F.G.:laugh:
 
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