Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We just went above the November low of 7552. SPX of 800 to 805 is in the plan for today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"A month ago I discussed how I've been looking at some historical charts and that there were similarities from where we are now to the October 2002 - March 2003 period. In fact the October 2008 - March 2009 period is amazingly similar. If we continue to follow the path f what happened in 2003, will get a few weeks of sideways action, possibly into Easter and then a great rally into June. I know it's not easy to see a sustained rally in the midst of negativity but the bottom line is that markets love to do what most people don't expect and the indicators are sitting with the bulls for now." We should break the 200 day MA of the VIX today - currently at 41.02.

http://safehaven.com/article-12900.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I frankly would not be at all surprised today if we really squeeze some shorts after 1500 hours and send this market to close up 450 points. MindyLou says watch for it. If that happens that should cut me some slack on the tracker.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The next bull market rally has begun and there are bargains in every emerging market following a record slump in stocks," Templeton Asset Management Ltd's Mark Mobius said.

 

[DCguy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

volume is low and sp500 is now above 805. bonds are in the red.. i dunno... I really dont think this is the rally we've been waiting for. I still think this is some kind of trap before the big fall.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well the 805 SPX brick wall crumbled to the horns. 943.85 was the January 6th high. The 6-year Kress cycle ia a powerful one and can't be underestimated. The previous 6 year cycle bottom ended the bear market in October 2002 and the bear market of 2008 has also been killed by the 6-year cycle bottom. I need to go wake up MindyLou to watch this.

 

[Gumby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The next bull market rally has begun and there are bargains in every emerging market following a record slump in stocks," Templeton Asset Management Ltd's Mark Mobius said.

Bull market rally on Treasury manipulation....banks win...taxpayer loses

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Dow hit 450 points up and I had an adrenaline rush. Now I have to work towards when to take back my North Carolina money ($772K) that I dumped down the well last fall - I should have it all back before the year ends but when money is making money it hurts to take it off the top. The VIX should drop below it's 200 DMA at 41.02 - if not today then tomorrow.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Lets hope tomorrow is not a revenge day

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There's over $10 trillion of liquidity on the sidelines and the fear of missing these gains will create intense anxiety to become buyers. Tomorrow could easily see a 70 point SPX run to the upside. The January high of 943.85 on the SPX is just around the corner - only renegade contrarians saw this move.

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

great job today, for the birchtree's that are riding the storm out G L the rest of the week to all

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Is this the beginning of the infamous parabolic move leaving little room to get on board. As an investor with a longer term horizon it's best to remain disciplined to your strategy. Sooner or later, stock prices will follow those businesses that continue to improve fundamentally. Look out at least six months.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, I gotta ask. Did you beat your single day record today ?

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm on the bandwagon, but only 51% on

For those of you on board big time, bless you and good luck. I think your in for a good ride.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

squalebear,

I'm not sure what single day record you may be referencing? I'm trying to think back about some more recent records like the day I lost $241K in one day. I won't know how much valuation I gained until my account is updated by Merrill after 2400 hours. But I suspect it was sweet. I'm trying to stay conservative in my expectations but still plan on a $100K week if I can get it. Anything larger than that would of course be appreciated - I have a long way to recover my $1M haircut. I am lucky because all my assets are still intact and they should float my boat. I did buy 432 individual positions looking for the bottom last fall and those assets will soon be going into the profit zone. Cramer is really hyping tomorrow's activity saying this rally is real. I'll take whatever fate delivers. The problem now is that my dividend reinvestments this week will cost more - is there ever any justice.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

squalebear,

I'm not sure what single day record you may be referencing? I'm trying to think back about some more recent records like the day I lost $241K in one day. I won't know how much valuation I gained until my account is updated by Merrill after 2400 hours. But I suspect it was sweet. I'm trying to stay conservative in my expectations but still plan on a $100K week if I can get it. Anything larger than that would of course be appreciated - I have a long way to recover my $1M haircut. I am lucky because all my assets are still intact and they should float my boat. I did buy 432 individual positions looking for the bottom last fall and those assets will soon be going into the profit zone. Cramer is really hyping tomorrow's activity saying this rally is real. I'll take whatever fate delivers. The problem now is that my dividend reinvestments this week will cost more - is there ever any justice.

I was thinking back, quite some time ago when you were looking for your
first +100K ? week. I can't remember the number, but I DO remember
being floored by the amount. With a 7% party today, you came to mind.
I'm listening to Cramer myself right know, he's so entertaining. :toung:

Thus, I must ask you a serious question; Your Opinion !
Does this end before April or can we expect more of the same concerning a sustained rally, new Bull Market confirmation or a retest of current lows?
I'm just seeking your opinion ! Thanks !

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe this rally can run through June and then we may get a successful retest of the March lows. But we don't need to retest just like we didn't get the climax selling for a bottom but rather had a selling dry up. I would look at the run we had in 1995 and 2003 - both moves had only minimal corrections - hardly enough time to sneeze. The bull will do what it can to be sure only the few participate. Sentiment is getting ready to shift to fear of missing the rally and the anxiety of perhaps paying too much and getting whipsawed. A lot can happen in six trading days once money starts to flow. The TICK of money flow is resting at new all time highs. Today the CO NYSE breadth MCO exploded to its own new record high. My adrenaline rush hasn't worn off yet. Snort.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe this rally can run through June and then we may get a successful retest of the March lows. But we don't need to retest just like we didn't get the climax selling for a bottom but rather had a selling dry up. I would look at the run we had in 1995 and 2003 - both moves had only minimal corrections - hardly enough time to sneeze. The bull will do what it can to be sure only the few participate. Sentiment is getting ready to shift to fear of missing the rally and the anxiety of perhaps paying too much and getting whipsawed. A lot can happen in six trading days once money starts to flow. The TICK of money flow is resting at new all time highs. Today the CO NYSE MCO exploded to its own new record high. My adrenaline rush hasn't worn off yet. Snort.

Snort, Snort ! Thanks and have one for me !

 

[Scrappy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Never heard of Charles Nenner before reading on the MB. Is there any vindication to his latest predictions based on what is occurring? His interviews are hard for me to interpret but I believe he predicted a bottom in mid March followed by a rally into April/May.

 

[Handballer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Fed still has a lot of work to do with their announced programs. The Fed will be purchasing Treasury notes and inflation protected Treasury securities with maturities of two years to ten years and will begin the program this week. The Fed also has increased its ceiling on purchases of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $1.25 trillion from the previously set $500 billion. Through March 11, the Fed had purchased $69 billion of mortgage-backed securities and had commitments to buy $148 billion more. It will increase the amount of Fannie and Freddie's debt that it buys to $200 billion from $100 billion. Through March 11, it had purchased $48 billion of their debt. Gimme some of those toxic assets - oh that's right, I already own my share.

i own some shares of AIG recently purchased for $1.11 a share. How sad is that?