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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
steveg
Member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch --
I am NOT arguing with the idea that we will eventually see an "up" time in the market, another bull run. I am not disagreeing that the market recovers before the economy does. I am also not disagreeing that during the depths of negativity is a good time to buy. In fact, I personally was 100% G until recently; I am currently 50% in the market (C fund), riding this little rally.
The only thing I have said is that our future growth (over the next 10 years at least) will likely be subdued, compared to other historical recoveries, due to out-of-control spending by our socialist-leaning government. The tax burden which will be carried by we, the investors -- which will be levied in order to try to pay back this unfathomable debt -- will be a huge drain on the pocketbooks of we the people. All the money we'll be handing to Uncle Sam in the future through massive tax increases is money that otherwise could have gone into the stock market -- either directly, through investment, or indirectly, through consumer spending. Since that money will be paid to the IRS instead, I am simply guessing that long term, market growth will be less than we might think. Not to say that there won't be rallies/bulls -- and likely we will have one of these rallies after the current bear bottom. I'm simply guessing that the days of 8-10% returns over 20-30 year periods of time may be a thing of the past.
Most importantly, though, my only reason for posting in this thread was that I was simply trying to "set the record straight," as I said before. I think it is important, when thinking about all the newbies (like myself) who are here looking for advice, that when "facts" are posted, that they be accurate. I think newbies need to know that, for instance, 100% to 150% gains in the broad markets, a mere matter of a few months after the 1932 and 1974 bottoms, just did NOT HAPPEN. The actual recovery was much smaller and slower. That's all. Obviously, there are folks who don't think correcting the facts is important, and you have told me so. That's fine. I disagree, but I think from now on, I'll disagree in my OWN thread, and hopefully can do my part to make sure folks aren't misled.
Good luck to all; I hope you all get the market performance that you are hoping for.
Steve
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've been watching Darden (DRI) this morning after they posted good earnings. They are up +$5.07 to $34.98 and my desire is that perhaps some of my restaurant stocks will have some gains also. I ate again over the weekend at Steak and Shake (SNS) and they were packed. As a matter of customer courtesy the waitress gave me a free chilli soup because we had to wait for our food. The 50 day moving average for the Dow is at 7824 - can we get there by the end of the week?
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch --
we will eventually see an "up" time in the market, another bull run.
the market recovers before the economy does.
during the depths of negativity is a good time to buy.
I personally was 100% G until recently; I am currently 50% in the market (C fund), riding this little rally.
Birch - he sounds like one of us.
our future growth (over the next 10 years at least) will likely be subdued, compared to other historical recoveries, due to out-of-control spending by our socialist-leaning government.
Damn Birch - I like this guy
The tax burden which will be carried by we, the investors -- which will be levied in order to try to pay back this unfathomable debt -- will be a huge drain on the pocketbooks of we the people. All the money we'll be handing to Uncle Sam in the future through massive tax increases is money that otherwise could have gone into the stock market -- either directly, through investment, or indirectly, through consumer spending.
Steve - your comments are HIGHLY WELCOMED
Very well put - seriously - I like the way you think
Since that money will be paid to the IRS instead, I am simply guessing that long term, market growth will be less than we might think. Not to say that there won't be rallies/bulls -- and likely we will have one of these rallies after the current bear bottom. I'm simply guessing that the days of 8-10% returns over 20-30 year periods of time may be a thing of the past.
That's hard to say - the one thing we know for sure at this point in time is that enough money is available to push the Markets as Birch is predicting. In the FIRST 2 or 3 YEARS - huge gains will result.
Most importantly - don't hesitate to share your views because you are ONE SHARP DUDE.
Good luck to all; I hope you all get the market performance that you are hoping for.
Steve
Rock on man - I hope you the best !!
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The result of our lengthy bottoming pattern caused those who tend to panic to sell in October and November 2008, while those who are impatient have been more likely to unload in recent weeks and even in recent days - like those moving to the lily pad. Thus the financial markets have succeeded in eliminating all those who were encouraged to sell their stock and TSP positions for emotional reasons. As a rule, the duration of stock market rally in a secular (long term) bear market is positively correlated with the amount of time it took for the preceding bottoming process to complete. As a rule of thumb, for each month that the market took to complete a bottoming pattern, the subsequent rebound tends to last for about 1 1/2 months. This rally could last well past summer.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
I'm beginning to feel like a REAL IDIOT
If it's not asking too much .... come 4/1/09...with all of us stuck in G
and you probably 8% above everyone else
Would you remind us of your B&H strategy :cheesy:
Why it works
And how your confidence is unskakable
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Let me see if I can get off the #160 ranking on the tracker - but I have too much humility to ever say anything against the timers. There are plenty of ways to invest money - but usually when B&H comes under negative scrutiny that signals a bottom. We need bullish buyers in the next 30 minutes.
fedgolfer
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
we have been jinxed..37 mins to go
Big boys must have sensed Birch's euphoria and are now hitting the sell-button
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The SPX at 796 is a 20% gain - closed at 794.35. By definition a 20% gain signals a new bull leg to the upside. It's time to add positions to my homebuilders. At some point in the near future we have the potential for a major and quite rapid shift in investor sentiment. There are only nine more trading days for lily padders to stay on the ice block. The SPX hopefully will be another 10% higher by then.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Hey Birch,
I see Oracle just declared it's first ever dividend today in the AH. In a time when divvies are being hacked, this must be construed as bullish. Perhaps you might even add it to your ever growing garden this week. Imagine that, the CSCO's of the world might finally be waking up by paying shareholders to sit and wait until Ferdinand decides to leave the station.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
If I'm ever near your neck of the woods....
could I get a Booster Shot of the PANSY VACCINE :embarrest::laugh:
Rod
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
That's when the sell-off will commence... When (G) Funders (90% myself) attempt to catch the rally then be whipsawed down.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I was thinking the same thing. April 1st may be a great day to take a break for a week or two. What really amazes me is how in seven trading days you would think the world has changed, when in reality it has not. 20% is nice, but not sure we can say we saw the bottom on March 9th.
Jeff
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Despite looking for negative reasons to support the view that this market was going to crash and burn, we did not find such evidence, and so we are forced to remain bullish, at least on the short to intermediate time frames. We have always placed an emphasis on contrarian data (technical and psychological) and this data is not supporting a crash and burn view."
http://safehaven.com/article-12851.htm
McDuck
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime
Forbes - 9 hours ago
Investment Chief: 'These Stocks Can Double'
CNBC - 10 hours ago
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thanks Greg. At least James Stack noticed the combination of last Tuesdays 12 to 1 ratio of advancing stocks over declining stocks coupled with that days' 27 to 1 up to down volume ratio has not occurred in almost 65 years. We're having a slow start today, but then again yesterday had a slow start before the eventual lift.Similar threads
