Birchtree's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Good Morning Birch, just a drive--o--o-> by HELLO !

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Regarding Birch's comment:

In June 1933, long before all the banks had failed or unemployment had peaked, the S&P rallied 105% in 6 months. Similarly, in 1974 it rallied 148% in 5 months.

This sounded like absolute BS to me -- the S&P took, if I'm not mistaken, 23 years after the Great Depression bottom to reach its pre-crash highs, so I couldn't imagine that it could have rallied 105% in 6 months. But, I wanted to check to make sure, before I questioned you on this.

Well, I couldn't find the data back to 1933. But, I did find it for 1974. So, I checked on your "1974 148%" claim.

Here are the facts:

On Oct. 3, 1974, the S&P reached its low -- 62.28. From there, it began a rally. It reached 75.21 Nov. 7, 1974 -- about a 20% gain. It then fell through the end of '74 and started another rally into '75. On March 14, 1975, just over 5 months from the bottom (presumably the time you are referring to), the market reached a short-term peak of 84.76 -- a 36% gain from the bottom.

After a short dip, the market rose some more, reaching a peak of 95.61 on July 15, 1975 -- just over 53% above the absolute bottom from Oct. 3, '74, 9 months earlier. This was the highest close of 1975.

A 148% gain from the Oct. 3 bottom of 62.28 would be 154.43. That level was not reached until April 11, 1983 -- when we closed at 155.14. That is 8 1/2 years after Oct. 3, 1974.

Steve

Good catch Steve.

Hey Birch, what color is the sky in your world? :toung:

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I certainly prefer to listen to solid, historical facts. It reduces the dangers of making bad decisions! Thanks for the clarification.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steve.

Well shucks - I'm just glad that I did not sell my C at $1.66 a share.

Yeah good thing you didn't.

Actually, you probably should have sold it when it was at $20 a share. LOL!!!!!:laugh:

I recently bought it at $1.04 and sold it at $1.66 for a nice profit. Thanks to you! Birch, you da man!:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

To state outright that a gain of at least 50% over the next year is virtually certain for most major equity indices and funds would be considered as insane suggesting a year ago that the S&P 500 would slump by more than 38%. And yet I see that as the only possible outcome, given concerted bank rate cuts and the very heavy insider buying. Similarly, very few will make money over the next year because they will be obsessed with how bad the worldwide recession will become, while it has likely already achieved its period of sharpest contraction. That's a great article that Lady posted on her thread dealing with this same topic. The best opportunities will come when people are most fearful and pessimistic. It will never feel comfortable to invest after a 40-55% decline. I'm going to look back and see if I can refresh my 1974 figures - not ready to admit that was a typo.

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

not ready to admit that was a typo.

Of course it was a typo. A person of high standing and morals as yourself would never lie or put out false information.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steveg,

Check out the graph of 1974-1975 on http:// safehaven.com/article-12024.htm It would appear that I was wrong on the SPX when I may have been thinking about the DJIA. The bottom for the Dow was around 350 and the immediate rally high was around 900. That is about a rally of 550 points which comes very close to a 150% gain.

http://safehaven.com/article-12024.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Z man,

It just goes to show that nobody is omnipotent and humility in the markets is always a virtue. For me profitability resides in the ride ahead. The question becomes - how close can I get to your ranking in the next ten trading days? Frozen in time. If I recall the Datsun B210 did have a good heater.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It just goes to show that nobody is omnipotent and humility in the markets is always a virtue.

Birch - despite the B&H aspect - you've got more than enough perils of wisdom that will always stand the test of time

For me profitability resides in the ride ahead.

Most BOTTOMS are not seen as they take place - or when expected - and ONLY in hind sight can we say 'Ah ha - this is where the bottom occured'

So by remaining IN indefinately - and buying more and more shares along the way - there is no way possible you'll ever miss the real bottom and subsequently the reall BULL.

The question becomes - how close can I get to your ranking in the next ten trading days?

The question is much more - over time will the future BULL more than cover the losses brought on by the BEAR.

Frozen in time. If I recall the Datsun B210 did have a good heater.

Not sure if this is it but it really doesn't matter.

We're entering the last stretch either way

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tom,

Yesterday I saw four jets flying in formation over my place at a relatively low level - sends a chill up my spine. The sky is blue and the future is wide open for progress. Right now we have the most favorable investing scenario since at least 1990. We will probably enjoy the biggest short term percentage rally from the March 9th bottom since 1932-1933. I therefore owe it to myself to capitalize upon this situation as throughly as possible, rather than being satisfied with what would normally be a respectable profit. No G fund for me.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mis-stated "facts", forgot to post the links, opinions that reflect word for word of posted experts. Come on guys. Not from Birch. I'm shocked. It's good to have outs eh, Birch.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes my dear it's good to feel the love - enjoy that F fund. Money market and savings accounts (to include the bond funds) constitute more than 90% of the market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 Index. Link has been previously provided.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch,
Not trying to get in the middle of anything here... but 60 Minutes interviewed Ben last night and the BOTTOM LINE...


There is a HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY on the side lines 'waiting to get in' - and I mean an amount that few could imagine....


made me think of you - as that's been one of your main messages throughout this whole ordeal. When that money pours in the GAINS will be unbelievable....

also will have the most stable economy we've had in ages..

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another reason I think we'll go six for six and maybe seven for seven. There is very little over head supply to provide resistance after the March 9th bottom. If I can get close to a 200 point rally today I'll make close to $40K - a good start for the first week ever of making $100K.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The SPX has managed to hold well above its prior downtrend line which is definitely a win for the bulls. While there are now numerous resistance levels to get through as the market tries to climb the walkl of worry higher, at least it's forming a new uptrend and not a downtrend. The slope of the previous price decline was unprecedented over the past 80+ years, challenged only by the final several months prior to the 1932 price lows - and we now know what happened next. Snort.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You'd mention planting cucumbers recently

I'll often slice one down PAPER THIN - fill a bowl and put some Italian dressing on them.

Pretty much load my tossed salad with them

Will mix them with onion - peppers - for a chilled dish

My wife freezes them with onion - and sugarey water (I guess) but it's really good.

Also can tons of them in a variety of ways.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another reason I think we'll go six for six and maybe seven for seven. There is very little over head supply to provide resistance after the March 9th bottom. If I can get close to a 200 point rally today I'll make close to $40K - a good start for the first week ever of making $100K.

• Ben Bernanke Is Still Stuck in the 1930s
• Roubini Says Rally Is a "Dead Cat Bounce"

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I put in a few summer squash today to grow along with the cucumbers. I'm growing both on chicken wire that is along my back fence. The sun will be in my favor in about one more week. I'm going to grow my pole beans up my corn. Today the market rested and allowed me to reinvest my dividends at good prices - tomorrow we may rock again.

 

[steveg]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch --

You said:

Check out the graph of 1974-1975 on http:// safehaven.com/article-12024.htm It would appear that I was wrong on the SPX when I may have been thinking about the DJIA. The bottom for the Dow was around 350...

Not trying to be a jerk here, I promise...

But, it still didn't sit well with me that the DOW would gain 148% while the S&P would only gain 53%. So I checked some more. The bottom of the DOW in the 1974 bear was in fact 577.60, not the 350 you claimed. Your chart actually shows this (though you can't see an exact value on your chart, it shows a bottom just below 600). This 577.60 low was reached Dec. 6, 1974. The high 8 months later, on July 15, 1975, was 881.81. That was the highest close for the year of 1975. The percent rise from 577.60 to 881.81 is 52.6%.

A 148% rise from 557.60 would be 1432.45. That level was not reached on the DOW until TEN YEARS later -- Nov. 12, 1985, when the close was 1433.60.

So, bottom line -- the highest close of the S&P 500, within 1 year of the late 1974 bottom was just over 53%; the max close of the Dow Jones Industrials, within one year of the late 1974 bottom was 52.6%.

The only reason I am pressing this issue is that I feel this is important. Anyone is free to post whatever OPINION one wants to post, obviously. But, when posting what are supposed to be facts, I think we all owe it to each other to be as accurate as possible -- there's alot of money at stake here! And, since this thread has had over 334,500 views, I thought it important to set the record straight.

Steve

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steve, if Birch had it his way, the market would drop to 400 tomorrow so he could accumulate more fun tickets. The day to day moves don't mean a thing to him, but he does enjoy a good up day as much as anybody.