Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steve,
I appreciate what you're saying in regards to the importance of reflecting accurate data. As you get to know Birch better you come to find he is filled with a vast array of knowledge - of not only historical data but also many aspects that influence the Markets on a daily basis.

The most underlying TRUTH that Birch holds to is: The continuing strength and duration of the economy. He KNOWS no matter what circumstances the Economy faces - and no matter how deeply it sets the Markets back - that when it recovers it will undoubtedly recover on a MEGA GRAND SCALE.

So Dennis is PERMABULL#1 - and there is no one else like him in the entire MB. So always expect reflections on the Grandest Scales in relation to Huge Percentage Gains, the upward strength of cycles, and the inevitable duration of BULL MARKETS. Even if he's off by a little here and there - the FACT IS what he's reflecting is undeniable.

I appreciate what you're saying BUT this is his home - so I find it way better to catch the essense of what he's saying and not dwell on the particulars. And if someone else is 'consumed' with the fact that he is quoting an article - but not reflecting it; again I would say chill out because often he includes links.

But above and beyond everything else - this is the ONE PLACE he shouldn't have to be concerned. IN THIS SITUATION it is way more important to understand who and what he represents and accept him as he is.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for the kind words Steady. When I deal with 1974, 1977-78, 1982, 1984, 1987, 1995, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004-2007 there is bound to be a mistake on occasion, though not intentional. The point is that I've lived through these time periods and they all contributed to my experience in investing. Every time period is different but the outcomes have eventually been the same - progress continues and markets rebound. I was looking for a positive $40K day but ended up devalued by $1K - but I did reinvest eleven dividends and today I have nine more to hit my account. My last purchase on the C fund was at $8.80 and I suspect I'll pay more the next time around in two weeks. So I'm a little on the poor side right now but I'm still a happy camper because I survived this bear and am looking forward to the future and my next $1M.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch --

You said:



Not trying to be a jerk here, I promise...

But, it still didn't sit well with me that the DOW would gain 148% while the S&P would only gain 53%. So I checked some more. The bottom of the DOW in the 1974 bear was in fact 577.60, not the 350 you claimed. Your chart actually shows this (though you can't see an exact value on your chart, it shows a bottom just below 600). This 577.60 low was reached Dec. 6, 1974. The high 8 months later, on July 15, 1975, was 881.81. That was the highest close for the year of 1975. The percent rise from 577.60 to 881.81 is 52.6%.

A 148% rise from 557.60 would be 1432.45. That level was not reached on the DOW until TEN YEARS later -- Nov. 12, 1985, when the close was 1433.60.

So, bottom line -- the highest close of the S&P 500, within 1 year of the late 1974 bottom was just over 53%; the max close of the Dow Jones Industrials, within one year of the late 1974 bottom was 52.6%.

The only reason I am pressing this issue is that I feel this is important. Anyone is free to post whatever OPINION one wants to post, obviously. But, when posting what are supposed to be facts, I think we all owe it to each other to be as accurate as possible -- there's alot of money at stake here! And, since this thread has had over 334,500 views, I thought it important to set the record straight.

Steve

Allow me to interject. Birch has been able to post whatever he wants and take credit for whatever he says with little regard to actual facts or crediting who really said it. He has been called on it numerous times (always with an excuse, note the one for this time) so you are really beating your head on the wall. As long as you know what he is all about you can warn others....As for the flock....they will follow....BAA...BAAA. And you are right Steve, IT IS IMPORTANT!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh Sugar - I suspect there is something else you need to let go of


Can't we try to live in a pretend world where we stive to ignore the flaws in others...where roses buds bloom into pieces of cherry hard candy...and all forms of negative energy are dispelled and ignored.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I guess I could've just as easily said "the 1933-37 bull market gained 381% from the bear market low of July 1932", but I didn't - now I wonder how I missed such an important fact.

http://safehaven.com/article-12024

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bear Market Rally" March 9, 2009.

"The real question will be, is it a bear market rally, or something more?"

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Can't we try to live in a pretend world where we stive to ignore the flaws in others...where roses buds bloom into pieces of cherry hard candy...and all forms of negative energy are dispelled and ignored.

Steady,

You should work for CNBC. You have the talent to turn a chit-sandwich into a steak dinner.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I guess I could've just as easily said "the 1933-37 bull market gained 381% from the bear market low of July 1932", but I didn't - now I wonder how I missed such an important fact.

http://safehaven.com/article-12024

Let's translate that into numbers

In 1933 - you start off with $100,000 dollars

You leave every penny in the Markets and let it remain there. You don't watch the Markets on a daily basis trying to determine what day of the week or month to take it out (and put it back in).

BUT YOU SIMPLY LEAVE IT AND LET IT RIDE.

In 1937 - (4 years later) - You check your returns.

You now have $381,000 dollars in GAINS

Total of $481,000 dollars in a few simple years... not by trying to beat the Market...analyzing charts day and night...checking up on all the economic factors... and world relations.....

but simply putting your money in the Markets and walking away


Next B&H speech is slated for 8/12/09


Thanks 350z -- you and I were writting at the same time

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Did you notice that irascible drive buy - I thought I saw smoke coming from a tail pipe - could be burning oil and needs a valve job. That'll be expensive.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Being There" March 16, 2009.

I commented about the undercut a while back but here is a better version.

"The DJIA declined to a new 12 year low, which "undercut" the lows of last October/November, and then experienced what looks to us like a "selling dry up" low. Retracing 12-year lows for the Dow is an incredibly rare event. Besides the retest of 1997 lows seen on Monday (3/9/09), this has happened two other times, on April 8, 1932, and December 6, 1974. It is noteworthy that the 12 year low in 1932 was three months before the end of the bear market and the one in 1974 was exactly the low for that bear market".

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

 

[mojo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Another reason I think we'll go six for six and maybe seven for seven. There is very little over head supply to provide resistance after the March 9th bottom. If I can get close to a 200 point rally today I'll make close to $40K - a good start for the first week ever of making $100K.

Well looks like you might make it (40k) today. Nice

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nah, AA is holding me back along with some banks - maybe $30K if luck is with me.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch - when you took the elevator DOWN it went pretty fast.

Now it's been going UP with remarkable speed.



I'm wondering if all of us getting off made it go faster



But NOW all the more I beginning to wonder?????

What's going to happen to me and the thousands that bailed?

Compared to you (and the few) that held on???

Will sign off on that note - Good night everyone

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

You must remember that on the way down I landed on a duffel bag full of cash and that prevented serious harm - but it was a risky move. Here's one for my friend Steveg. The recovery rally of 1908 was enormous and exceedingly profitable for those brave contrarian souls who bought in the midst of panic at the depths of popular despair. And this big rally happened despite the economy not expanding again until Q3 1908. Stock markets recover sharply after big down years even if the economic recovery takes longer to arrive.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Hesitation in this climate can be costly. Portfolio managers warn of a possible additional leg down in the markets that should keep investors from going all-in before more tangible signs of a true rebound occur."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29721419

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm thinking that perhaps now would be an adventitious or do I mean a propitious time to calm my rhetoric and sit back and fill my pockets for awhile. Profitability resides in the ride ahead.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Has the market found a bottom? Just before the 22% drop in February, the market tried 5 times to close above 780, but each time it fell back. Twice on Mar.16, traders pushed the S&P 500 as high as 775. Each time the market fell back, the last time dropping 21 points to close at 753. For the market to go higher, it will have to break 780. That's the technical line in the sand. But if 780 is a line in the sand for the SPX, 805 might be a brick wall. If the SPX hits a wall of resistance at 805, then we may retest the February market lows at 677." We'll do 780 tomorrow and 805 before the week is ended. Snort.

http://www.businessweek.com Investing 3/17 by Ben Levisohn

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I will eat a green peanut if we can blow right by the 50 day moving averages. The DJIA is at 7824 and the SPX is at 812. The low of March 11th, 2003 was a Dow of 7524. The low of October 9th, 2002 at 7286 is now in the hoof dust of the bulls. I think perhaps 7524 will fall this week.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll chearlead for ya.

GOOOOOO MARKET

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How's your LIBOR rate lately Birch,,,oh,,, so I
guess a personal loan is out of the question !
Damn credit is tight everywhere ! :nuts: