Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Despite looking for negative reasons to support the view that this market was going to crash and burn, we did not find such evidence, and so we are forced to remain bullish, at least on the short to intermediate time frames. We have always placed an emphasis on contrarian data (technical and psychological) and this data is not supporting a crash and burn view."

http://safehaven.com/article-12851.htm

Birch,
You are the BEST!!

There is no one that remotely compares to you.

We're having a slow start today, but then again yesterday had a slow start before the eventual lift.

The UNDEFEATED CHAMPION

Where every other member (including me) gets defeated - feels like they goofed up - has regrets about what they did - Birch alone remains unphased.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The third sector of the tracker is full of good contrarians and that will make it difficult to move up past them unless a few decide to cut and run to the lily pad - that's most unlikely though. I would like to catch a $9.00 price for the C fund before it gets into the $10 range. My lowest buy so far was $8.54 even though the bottom price was $7.86. But I'm sure some lucky member nailed it at that price.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=213835&postcount=303

Remember this one ??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The NYSE just regained positive territory +12 - get ready for launch.

 

[justbizness45]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The third sector of the tracker is full of good contrarians and that will make it difficult to move up past them unless a few decide to cut and run to the lily pad - that's most unlikely though. I would like to catch a $9.00 price for the C fund before it gets into the $10 range. My lowest buy so far was $8.54 even though the bottom price was $7.86. But I'm sure some lucky member nailed it at that price.

Not me, I got it at 8.39

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I'll be off for a week and need you to take over.

Once these guys step behind the curtain (or door) there's usually a mess to clean up so you have to keep mopping the floors.

These guys have nothing better to do than waste a bunch of quarters so always be on the lookout and you'll make a ton.

BTW - WE ARE IN A CONFIRMED BULL MARKET

He's just been rusting for so long it's hard to get moving.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I'll do my best. I just learned the Army is going to pay my daughter an extra $500/month retroactive for every month that she is forced to participate in their stop loss program - that only seems fair. She will have served an extra year with this program - the silver lining is she will have that much more time to contribute to her TSP account. Who knows, she may at a later date end up with a Federal job and will have a head start on her retirement. She has decided not to stay active duty at this time - passing up a $30K retention bonus. My oceanic actually gained $100 dollars yesterday inspite of an 85 points to the downside. All I need to make today is $31K to achieve my first week ever of pulling down $100K. Equities have their best long term potential when investors are most fearful of buying them. And there's no doubt that today most investors want as little to do with stocks as possible. Just check the AT for the number of lily padders.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I'll do my best.

Thanks Birch - that's all I can ask (or expect)

Still have another hospital to square away which will probably take an hour or two - so saving CB's post for later.

I just learned the Army is going to pay my daughter an extra $500/month retroactive for every month that she is forced to participate in their stop loss program - that only seems fair.

It's more than FAIR. She's not only a Captain - but she's a chip off the ole block. Birch she is bound to be everything a Veteran could be thought of as being - very decidated; loyal; and flowing with integrity. It was exactly what she needed and it payed off well.

She will have served an extra year with this program - the silver lining is she will have that much more time to contribute to her TSP account.

The Silver lining is the Character she's developed... finding the right man... going forward with solid strength and having a future that she and her family (and all of us) will be proud of.

Who knows, she may at a later date end up with a Federal job and will have a head start on her retirement.

She's be great at it. Would love to see her in a position like mine where she could really make a difference.

She has decided not to stay active duty at this time - passing up a $30K retention bonus.

She more than fulfilled her obligation Birch and is now on extened Service and getting the extra pay for it. Just like you, Handballer, Ron, James, me (and many others) she ACTIVE for Life and will always be a Veteran to the core.

30K is NOTHING compared to the Family she'll have over the years and all the more what she'll make in the Private Sector. She's already got a good education and excellent grounding - she can't go wrong. I think she's making the right choice.

My oceanic actually gained $100 dollars yesterday inspite of an 85 points to the downside.

Well then I might be willing to let you pay for the tip the next time I pay for the meal.

All I need to make today is $31K to achieve my first week ever of pulling down $100K.

All you need to do is chill - look around and enjoy that priceless cat and give her some quality love. Check out the garden and know nothing's getting through your protective wiring - and think how great all that stuff is going to taste. Then finish it all off by going on a walk with the Mrs and letting her know in every way possible how great she is. Reflect on that lovly Lady in Hawaii and just soak at that stuff up - and forget the day to day Market stuff.

Equities have their best long term potential when investors are most fearful of buying them. And there's no doubt that today most investors want as little to do with stocks as possible.

See - that's exactly what I'm talking about - very often you give the BOTTOM LINE TRUTHS

Just check the AT for the number of lily padders.

Lily Padders - Go from the TOP
to the bottom

Later - gotta run

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A deep oversold, worsening sentiment and positive internal divergences almost always provide the foundation to stock market recovery. NYSE new lows during the recent bottoming process traced decreasing levels. At the October 10th low, there were 2900 new lows; at the November 20th low, there were 1515 lows; and at the March 9th low, there were only 855 new lows. A similar experience happened at our last bear market lows. We had a three pronged bottom. From June 2002 until March 2003 we went through an agonizing nine-month evolution as the worst bear market in 30 years at that time was evolving to an end. On each of those three troughs of the evolution the volume decreased and fewer and fewer stocks made new lows. But when you looked at your bottom line, the value of the overall average portfolio dropped to its lowest level on the last panic decline in March 2003. It didn't help you to know that fewer of the stocks in your portfolio were actually making new lows, since the bottom-line devastation was so severe. This is a common trend and we are seeing history repeat again today. March 2003 may compare to the coming retest during the later part of June - IMHO. Smart investors act out of patience and courage, not panic. Just as bear markets typically end with more severe woe, bull markets typically begin with a bigger bang -I think we saw that bigger bang last Tuesday. That day provided the best ratios in the last 65 years.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Contrary to popular opinion, I am of the view that most commodities and stock markets have seen the lows for the entire bear market and we may be in the early stages of a new cyclical bull market which could last for a few years....I would like to point out that new bull markets are always born during abject pessimism and scepticism. Even if some asset prices break to fresh lows in the near term, I suspect such a move will prove to be a 'head fake' and prices will soon rebound."

http://safehaven.com/article-12869.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Light at the End of the Tunnel or an Oncoming Freight Traiun? Is housing about to turn up. No. But is there any good news on housing? Yes. The NAR index of housing affordability hit a record high in January, which, if taken literally, means that housing has never been more affordable since the series started in January 1971." If I hadn't dumped my cash in on the November lows I'd be able to go out and buy me several rentals - but being a landlord is time consuming. I'll stick with my bottom fishing in stocks - I'll come out way ahead of the game and the income is for life.

http://safehaven.com/article-12876.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We would not expect the rally to end until bullishness reached 55% and bearishness dropped below 25% which normally takes several months. The Dow has only been this oversold beneath its 200 day MA once in the last 75 years, and that was at a low in 1930, just before the Dow launched into the 50% bear market rally that took place in the middle of the 1929-32 bear."

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/harding/2009/0320.html

 

[Boghie]

Birch, But then there is Obama and Congress...

Birch,

The only problem with holding securities for the long term right now is:

• President Obama
• The Senate
• The House

The schlumps in these august bodies have easily overwhelmed the efforts of those who know what they are doing. This week is probably the best example. I think this recent downturn is purely political - that is, political morons who are aggressively anti-capitalist open their yaks and we have a sustained downturn. We were coming out of this thing – much like December – but, here we go!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

We were only down three days out of nine - those are excellent odds. You have to have corrections to keep the bears interested and continue to promote the fear advantage. We'll be back on track next week. The SPX January high was at 943.85 and I feel we will definitely test that range.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bull tinky?

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

All right. That's it. This Man of Truth gent needs help, even though his hair looks better.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

For a pleasant interview with a buy and hold financial adviser please click the link. "Humility. I diversify widely as an admission of ignorance. I don't try to buy low and sell high because I can't predict the short term direction of the markets."

http://www.thekirkreport.com

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Elsewhere you commented that the market will like the plan announced tomorrow, Monday. Denninger is basically agreeing with you: " Indeed, drawn properly this plan can actually work. "

 

[justbizness45]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Elsewhere you commented that the market will like the plan announced tomorrow, Monday. Denninger is basically agreeing with you: " Indeed, drawn properly this plan can actually work. "

That may be the most bullish thing I've heard yet lately. TurboTimmy getting a up check from KD on a plan to fix toxic assets. KD did point out how the sellers can game the sytem if checks aren 't in place to prevent it. Link below:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/889-Toxic-Assets-Promise,-But-Also-Peril.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Fed still has a lot of work to do with their announced programs. The Fed will be purchasing Treasury notes and inflation protected Treasury securities with maturities of two years to ten years and will begin the program this week. The Fed also has increased its ceiling on purchases of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $1.25 trillion from the previously set $500 billion. Through March 11, the Fed had purchased $69 billion of mortgage-backed securities and had commitments to buy $148 billion more. It will increase the amount of Fannie and Freddie's debt that it buys to $200 billion from $100 billion. Through March 11, it had purchased $48 billion of their debt. I guess the longer they take the better the market will do. Gimme some of those toxic assets - oh that's right, I already own my share.